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Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Workers Compensation Issues: California. Donald K. Rainey Milliman USA. California tumbles into the sea…. CA WC (Gross of Reins. & Deductibles) WCIRB Minus Industry Reported at 3/02. Root Causes Include …. Decreasing Frequency Drops Loss Trend Developments
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Casualty Loss Reserve SeminarWorkers CompensationIssues: California Donald K. Rainey Milliman USA
CA WC (Gross of Reins. & Deductibles)WCIRB Minus Industry Reported at 3/02 Source: WCIRB
Root Causes Include … • Decreasing Frequency Drops • Loss Trend Developments • Loss Development Trends • Increasing/High Loss Ratios
CA WC – Frequency per On-Level EP @ 12/01 Trend since 1993 = -2.4% Source: WCIRB
Frequency Drivers – Non Cumulative Injuries • 2/3 of Decline Due to: • Increased Cal/OSHA Enforcement • Shift to Service-Based Economy • Erosion of Statutory Benefits • Slower than Typical Economic Growth • Decline Should Slow Due to AB749 Source: WCIRB
CA WC – Average Cost per Indemnity Claim Source: WCIRB
Severity Drivers • Presumption of Treating Physician • Large Increases in Hospital Costs • Increased Medical Cost Containment Efforts • Mix of Claims Source: WCIRB
CA WC Paid Indemnity LDFs Source: WCIRB
CA WC Paid Medical LDFs Source: WCIRB
CA WC Medical “Paid Loss Trend” Drivers DRAFT study (09/02) results: • Increasing % of Major Claim Counts • Change in Severity of Major Claims is not a Major Cause • Possible Reasons • Major claims immune to drivers of declining frequency. • Up-coding possible but not supported or refuted by study. Source: WCIRB
CA WC Rate Level Index(1989 = 100%) Source: WCIRB
CA WC – Changes in Advisory PP Source: WCIRB
CA WC Pure Loss Ratios @ 6/02 Source: WCIRB
CA WC Combined Ratios @ 6/02 Source: WCIRB
Combined Ratios – CA vs. National Source: WCIRB & NCCI
AB 749 – Benefit Increases From 2003 to 2006 • Max Total Weekly Benefit Increases (Escalates Thereafter) • Maximum PPD Benefits Increase at selected Rating Intervals • Scheduled Number of Weeks Increase for Permanent Disability Benefits (2004) • Benefit Minimums Increase (2003-4, 2006) • Aggregate Death and Life Pension Benefit Maximums Increase (2006) Source: WCIRB
AB 749 – Structural Changes • Primary Treating Physician Presumption • Use of Generic Drugs • Outpatient and Pharmaceuticals Fees Schedules • Settlement of Vocational Rehabilitation Source: WCIRB
AB 749 – Percentage Impact Source: WCIRB
CA WC – Pending Legislation of Note • AB 1985 – Changes Basis for Rate Adequacy • Old: Solvency • New: Loss Cost Plus • SB 2093 – Security Deposits • Cash & Securities, not Surety Bonds • AB 2007 – CIGA fees • Keeps 2% (instead of 1%) through 2007 Source: CWCDAA