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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Central Issues  LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability  GEC -ICCD : Risk and Adaptation

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation

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  1. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR

  2. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Central Issues  LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability  GEC-ICCD: Risk and Adaptation  Linking production, expenditures & labour use  Bio-economic farm household modelling  Food chains and networks approach

  3. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Extensive Growth 120,0 25 100,0 20 80,0 15 1989-91=100 kilogrammes 60,0 10 40,0 5 20,0 0 0,0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Decreasing Fertilizer Use Increasing Cropping Area Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

  4. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa SSA Agricultural Development Small increase food production Decreasing food supply Rising input costs Lower food prices Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

  5. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Topics and Approaches Production options --> Crop simulation models Income composition --> Portfolio analysis Risk coping strategies --> Livelihood analysis Rural incentives --> Bio-economic models Bio-efficiency --> Chain analysis

  6. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Poverty in LFAs - Chronic Poverty + Resource Degradation - High transaction costs + Low factor productivity Source: Hazell & Ruben (2003)

  7. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Economic potential of LFAs Despite lower level, higher potential ! Source: Ruben & Pender (2004))

  8. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Weather and Climate Irregular precipitation Concentrated showers Source: Hengsdijk (2003)

  9. Crop type Early sowing (quintal/ha) Late sowing (quintal/ha) Wheat + Barley 12 6 Wheat 10 4 Barley 14 7 Teff 12 3 Finger Millet 13 4 Sorghum 18 6 Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Critical Importance of sowing date Source: Hengsdijk (2003)

  10. yield plateau N-uptake N uptake N application efficiency Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Sustainable Intensification  Complementarities Labour & External Inputs Improving input efficiency  Better yields + labour productivity  2 1 labour 4 3

  11. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Bio-economic Farm Household modeling Source: Kruseman, Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)

  12. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa • Consumption behaviour • Data derived from expenditure surveys (PRSP) • Based on utility maximization: Uc = f (Umax* (1-e) -Y • Engel curves for income-consumption relationship • Negative exponential utility function (declining U/Y) • Estimated for all income and consumption categories

  13. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa FHH Models: Supply Response to Policy Incentives (Mali) --> Selection of feasible technologies and appropriate instruments --> Win-win scenarios Source: Ruben et al (in Lee & Barratt, 2001)

  14. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Adaptive behaviour • Responses to decreasing rainfall: • less cotton, more arachide • more millet Source: Dietz, Ruben & Verhagen (2004)

  15. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa • Options for dealing with livelihood stress • Food acquisition • Direct/Indirect Food Intensification • Market exchange • Income/Activity Diversification • Off-farm employment • Social arrangements • Reducing food intake

  16. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa • Strategies for dealing with micronutrient deficiencies • (searching for bio-efficacy) • Dietary diversification • Supplementation • Post-harvest processing • Fortification • Biofortification (through breeding) MN supply Uptake efficiency MN demand Source: Slingerland et al., (2003)

  17. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Further Perspectives Sustainable intensification Uptake efficiency (plants & humans) Chain & network integration  Multi-agency analysis  Impact of Policy instruments

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