Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption

1. Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption John Toksoy Natural Gas Consumption

2. Define Answer These Q’s in Define Phase • What is the problem being addressed? • Who is the customer? • What are the business reasons for completing this project? • What is the goal of this project? • Describe the benefits of this project • Where, when and to what extent does this problem occur? • What are the boundaries of this project? • What resources will be needed for this project? • What do you need from your sponsor? team? • What data has been collected to understand customer requirements? • What criteria was used in selecting your project? What is the problem? Why Am I Doing It? Do I understand the limits?

3. Define Y Statement • Reduce monthly natural gas consumption by 20% for the months of Dec thru Mar • Set back temperature • Insulation improvements This is a Header

4. Define Develop A Charter • Business Case – Why am I doing this project? • Cost savings, Carbon footprint reduction • ME 414 Class Hands on experiment • Learn 6S approach to a given goal • Learn data analysis • Schedule • Complete data collection by mid March before outside temp warms up • Complete analysis tool development during ME414 Spring 2010 semester This is a Header

5. Process Map Do I understand the process? What are the critical parameters? What are the failure modes? Can I measure the quantity to be improved with at least 80% confidence? DefineProcess Map

6. Process Map Allows people to illustrate what happens in a process Useful for clarifying the scope of a project Excellent visual aide for identifying the “hidden factory” (rework/defect prevention) Identifies all the potential inputs that may affect the key outputs of the process Everything we do is a process …some processes are straight forward …other processes can be chaotic DefineProcess Map

7. Types of Process Map Process Variables Map Used as the first step in the Six Sigma process (Funnel Effect) Critical to successfully improving processes by reducing and removing variation “As is/Can be” Map Excellent method for identifying non-value-added steps Necessary first step in cycle time reduction projects Other types used for specific purposes: Swim-lane, SIPOC, flow-chart, etc… DefineProcess Map

8. The Funneling Effect DefineProcess Map 30+ Inputs All X’s • Process Maps MEASURE 10 - 15 1st “Hit List” • C&E Matrix • Failure Modes and Effects Analysis • Multi-Vari Studies 8 - 10 ANALYZE Screened List IMPROVE • Design of Experiments (DOE) 4 - 8 Found Critical X’s CONTROL 3 - 6 • Control Plans Controlling Critical X’s Critical Input Variables

9. Detailed Process Map What is the tool? Graphical illustration of your process What will the tool identify? All value-added and non-value-added process steps Key Process Inputs (X’s) (KPIV) Key Process Outputs (Y’s) (KPOV) Data Collection Points When do you apply process mapping? Always What are results of Process Mapping? Identify systems needing Measurement Studies Identify KPOV’s for Capability Studies Identify missing elements in the Control Plan Identify possible non-value-added process steps DefineProcess Map

10. Measure Process Map • Thermostat • Set back temp? • Furnace • Energy Consumption • Gas Bill • Measurement system • Energy cost gas & electricity This is a Header

11. Critical Parameter Management Residential Home Energy Consumption Electric Natural Gas Furnace Water Heater Appliances BTU Capacity House Heat Losses Efficiency Outside Temp Inside Set Temp Complete CPM

12. Measure Measure • MSA • Measurement system capability study • Temp sensors, A/D converters • Compare calculated degree days to published deg-days of Carmel • Inside humidity accuracy • Furnace on time estimate or measurement accuracy This is a Header

13. Measure Heating Degree DaysVectren Bill vs. HDD Measurements • Correlation between vectren, internet site and measured HDD days This is a Header

14. Measure Heating Deg Days vs. Therms Used This is a Header

15. Measure HDD vs. Therms Regression Analysis • Good linear correlation between Therms and heating degree days • P value is zero • 31.7 Therms at zero heating degree days • Water heater consumption is 31.7 Therms This is a Header

16. Measure Error AnalysisDeviation from Therms vs HDD linearity Expect to have a random error No common cause for errors Error is normally distributed Error should not have a trendNo common cause for errors This is a Header

17. Measure Monthly Variation of HDDJan 2007 – Jan 2010 • Months of February and November shows the most variation. • Why? This is a Header

18. Measure Does the Setup Measure Energy Consumption Accurately • For each of the 24 hr data set • Calculate the heater on time • Calculate heating degree days • Plot HDD vs. heater on time • Does it show a linear behavior This is a Header

19. Measure Heater On Time Calculation • Options to calculate heater on time • Measure register air temp with LM34 sensor or a thermistor • Heated air transport delay time between furnace and register where sensor is located • Microphone to detect air movement • Negligible air movement transport delay • Detect heater on signal from the controller • Best method for heater on time accuracy • Requires one or two more microcontroller I/O pins to pick-up the fan on and heater on signals • Communication signals are at 24V. Signal needs to be reduced to 5V before connecting to microcontroller I/O. • Thermostat to furnace communication needs to be decoded. It is a function of the thermostat brand.

20. Measure Relationship between Therms and Heater On Time • Convert heater on time to Therms • Furnace spec (BTU-hr, efficiency, model #) • Calculate house heat loss using the excel file • Compare calculated heat loss to Therms calculated from heater on time • Is there a good correlation between analysis and measurement?

21. Measurement Error • Error due to long signal wires • Filter design • Impact on mean value ME 414 – 6S Approach

22. Measure Temperature & Humidity Measurement System • Measurement System Components • LM34 Temperature sensor • HIH4000 Humidity sensor • LTC1298 A/D converter Room Humidity & Temperature HIH 4000 LM34 Outside Ambient Temperature HVAC Register Outlet Temp This is a Header

23. First Order Low Pass Filters Cut-Off Cut-Off Original Signal GreenFrom LM34 RedTo LTC 1298 (Hz) Cut-Off Ground This is a Header

24. Analyze Initial Capability • Initial capability • What is the current energy usage as baseline where savings will be calculated from • Degree day comparison • Past 5 to 10 years gas and electric bills (kWhr used not $$$) • Calculate heat loss from the house using the excel analysis tool • Make the tool more general to include individual rooms • Run transient heat transfer analysis using the Matlab tool and compare to measured data This is a Header

25. Weekend Temperature DataNo Setback During Daytime ME 414 – 6S Approach

26. Temperature DataSetback During Daytime ME 414 – 6S Approach

27. Analyze Multi-Vari • Effect of degree days on energy used • Heat leaks from the house • Thermal survey around the windows • Window pane inside and outside temperatures • Wall inside temp of outside walls • Literature survey on set-back temperature • Furnace specifications – Energy output BTU/hr This is a Header

28. Analyze Setback Temperature • Faster recovery time systems will have more savings with setback • Larger AC units will have shorter on times but will remove less humidity • Effect of setback is negligible if outside temp is > 4 C • 8 hr setback period will save 1% energy per degree setback Are these statements correct? Validate with Data This is a Header

29. Analyze Table #1 This is a Header

30. Improve Plot #1 • Error could occur because of minor temperature fluctuations on site due to the environment. • Error could also occur due to noise in the measurement system. This is a Header

31. Improve Plot #2 This is a Header

32. Improve Plot #3 This is a Header

33. Improve Plot #4 This is a Header

34. Improve Table #2 & 3 This is a Header

35. Control Table #4 & 5 ME 414 – 6S Approach

36. Control Table #6 & 7 ME 414 – 6S Approach

37. Control Table #8 ME 414 – 6S Approach

38. Improve Project Steps • March 24 • Process Map • Critical Parameter Flow Down (CPM) • March 31 • Calc heater on time using excel programming • Calc heating degree days • Establish a relationship between hdd and heater on time • April 7 • Does the calculated hdd correlate with published hdd • What is the heat loss from the house • Does it correlate with the heater on time This is a Header

39. APPENDIX

40. Therm, BTU, Joule & Calorie • A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F). • 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J • 1 BTU = 252 cal  = 1.055 kJ • 1 Quad = 1015 BTU  (World energy usage is about 300 Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.) • 1 therm = 100,000 BTU • 1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU • 1 calorie of heat is the amount needed to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Centigrade. • 1 calorie (cal) = 4.184 J(The Calories in food ratings are actually kilocalories.)

41. Natural Gas • Energy content  1030 BTU / Cubic Foot • Pounds of CO2 per billion BTU of energy:Coal            208,000 poundsOil               164,000 poundsNatural Gas 117,000 pounds • Ratios of CO2 pollution:Oil / Natural Gas = 1.40Coal / Natural Gas = 1.78 • Pounds of CO2 per 1,000 kWh, at 100% efficiency:Coal             709 poundsOil                559 poundsNatural Gas  399 pounds

42. Humidity Sensor HIH4000 Datasheet This is a Header

43. No Power to LM34 ME 414 – 6S Approach

44. No Power to LM34 ME 414 – 6S Approach

45. 5V to LM34 – No Capacitor ME 414 – 6S Approach

46. 5V to LM34 & 33uF Capacitor ME 414 – 6S Approach

47. Freq Domain – 5V & 33uF ME 414 – 6S Approach

48. 5V No Cap ME 414 – 6S Approach

49. 5V No Cap ME 414 – 6S Approach

50. ME 414 – 6S Approach