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by Michael Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group

DELPHI. by Michael Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group. Innovation & climate change Igniting the Next Industrial Revolution. Overview. The Delphi Group Climate Change – where are we? The New Carbon Marketplace Thinking Out of the Box! Attributes to Thrive and Survive Discussion.

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by Michael Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group

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  1. DELPHI byMichael Gerbis, P.Eng.President, The Delphi Group Innovation & climate change Igniting the Next Industrial Revolution

  2. Overview • The Delphi Group • Climate Change – where are we? • The New Carbon Marketplace • Thinking Out of the Box! • Attributes to Thrive and Survive • Discussion

  3. The Delphi Group • In Business since 1987 • “Catalyze Change Through Innovative Strategies that Generate Environmental, Social and Financial Dividends” • Environment & Clean Energy Technologies • Climate Change & Sustainable Energy • Health and Environment • EXCEL, EECO, GLOBE and Corporate • 1997 – 2001 Tripled Size and Revenues

  4. Incoming Energy Outgoing Energy Reflected Energy Energy Trapped By Greenhouse Gases THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

  5. International consensus • Earth is warming • 7 of 10 warmest years on record in the 1990s • IPCC projected range 1.0 - 3.5º Cover next 100 years • Discernible human influence • Trend to Continue Resulting in Impacts • more extreme weather events (insurance!!) • human health, environment, economy, ocean levels, river and lake systems, agriculture, tourism… • Canada more affected than most countries because of its large size & northern land mass

  6. Impacts of Climate Change

  7. Climate Change • UNFCCC (1992) • The Kyoto Protocol (1997) • Agreed to 5.2% reductions of GHG • CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6 • Flexibility Mechanisms (CDM, JI, IET) & sinks • Critical Dates & Timelines • 1990 baseline • 1998-2008 transition period • 2008-2012 budget period

  8. MT CO2 - equivalent 764 682 199 Mt or 26% 694 601 Kyoto target six percent below 1990 level 565 Forecast CANADA’S EMISSIONS PROJECTIONAND THE KYOTO TARGET

  9. Projected GHG EMISSIONS BY PROVINCE MT CO2 - equivalent +40% +17% +10% +38% +40% +23% +24% Alberta Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba B.C. and Territories Sask.

  10. North American and European Markets For Environmental Goods and Services Level of Industrial Purchasing Activity Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: Stage 4: Auditing and EMS and Environment Sustainable Compliance ISO 14000 and Business Development Integration Drivers Source: The Delphi Group, 1998 Pathway to sustainability

  11. The Path to Sustainable Energy • BIOMASS • Dung • Wood • Straw FOSSIL FUELS Coal Oil Natural Gas • Renewables • Solar • Wind • Biomass • Geothermal • ? • Fusion • Hydrogen • Tidal/wave nuclear Carleton University 2002

  12. Converging Forces Trend towards Sustainable Energy Rapid Innovation Global Energy Market Reform Concern over health impacts Kyoto Potential Opportunity & Risk The Emerging “Carbon Marketplace”

  13. The Product of Convergence

  14. corporate Risks • “Uncertainty Factor” • Int’l Process “Devil’s in Details” • National Leadership (lack thereof) • Cost, cost, cost…benefits? • Rate of Return & Price of Credits Unknown • “Share-Value Exposure” • Differentials in GHG emissions • Decreasing Value of Capital Stock • Production, expansion, acquisitions • Relative Impact on Global Competitors

  15. Corporate Opportunities • Gain Competitive Advantage • Productivity, Energy Efficiency • Differentiate Yourself from Competitors • Hedge Your Bets – Offset Future Risk • Added Value through Offset Credits • Diversification • Leverage technology and R&D • Exploit new markets • Create new value-added business ventures • Enhance Shareholder Value

  16. Leaders & laggards • Four Levels of Action • Strategic Integration • Sitting on Fence (Baselines Being Done) • ‘Not on the Radar Screen’ Yet • Moving against the flow • Leaders Moving Ahead • BP, Shell Int’l, Transalta, DuPont, Suncor Energy, OPG, Alcan, Dofasco • Cities of Toronto, Calgary, Banff, Halifax • Denmark, UK, Netherlands

  17. Eco-Efficiency Building Design & Operation Advanced Materials Climate Change Companies Renewable & New Energy Biotech E-Commerce Emerging Innovation • 600 diversified firms • Generally High-tech solutions • Strong R&D • $3 billion & 23,000 jobs • Global Market between $150 - $400 billion • Increasing 5%/yr

  18. Fuel Cells Future Fuels Buildings New Processes Many companies see opportunities

  19. So What Does This Have to Do with me? • New Business Realities => Next Industrial Revolution* • Radical Increases in Resource Productivity • Biomimicry • Evolution From Manufacturing to Service and Flow Economy • Increasing Investment in Natural Capital *Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins

  20. Industry“Thinking out of the box” • Interface – New Factory in Shanghai had a 92% energy saving by new design • Looked at whole pumping system and discarded old style of economics • Sized pumps based on large pipes rather than small pipes (50% increase in dia = 86% drop in friction) • Installed pipes first then equipment • 12 fold reduction in energy, simpler and faster construction, less floor space, easier maintenance, and better performance (e.g. saved 70 kW of heat loss) *Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins

  21. Buildings“thinking out of the box”The International Netherlands Group (ING) Bank • 540,000 ft2 • Strong Vision & a Multidisciplinary Team • 3 Year Process – Everyone Had to Understand Everything • Added Capital = $700k • Annual Energy Savings of $2.9 mil (1996) / 1/10th • 15% reduction in absenteeism *Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins

  22. Transportation“Thinking out of the box” • Whole-system design • ultra light; low-drag; hybrid-electric; efficient accessories • 3 to 5 x better fuel economy • equal or better performance, safety, affordability http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid386.asp *Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins

  23. “thinking out of the box”Maunsell – Aberfeldy Golf Club Footbridge Bridge • Major span – 63 m • 1st major advanced composite footbridge • Maunsell worked with Dundee Univ. engineering students who provided thebridge erection team. • Assembled in 10 weeks, no craneage, minimal foundations, 20 yr maintenance schedule

  24. “thinking out of the box”Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Market-based mechanism: • Assist Annex 1 countries to comply with their reduction targets under Kyoto • Increase rate of return, financial attractiveness • Reduce risk and enhance markets • Sustainable Development • Build developing country capacity • Transfer state-of-the-art technologies • Environmental and health co-benefits

  25. Attributes to THRIVE & survive • Breadth of Understanding • Strong technical skills • Business Savvy – but it’s not just about old style economics • Interpersonal & Communication Skills • Ability to Think Out of the Box (and assess different perspectives) • Work within a “Fear of Change” • Be Adaptable

  26. “Thinking Out of the Box”

  27. “thinking out of the box” “Innovation is not always about having a new idea, more often it’s about stopping having an old idea."

  28. The Delphi Group For More Information Contact: Mike Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group 428 Gilmour St. Ottawa, Ontario K2P 0R8 Tel: (613) 562-2005 Fax: (613) 562-2008 email: mgerbis@delphi.ca Website: www.delphi.ca

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