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From GAIM to AIMES

From GAIM to AIMES. Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair of IGBP. IGBP II Structure. IGBP Projects. Atmosphere: IGAC Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC Land: GLP Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS Land-Ocean: LOICZ Integration: PAGES and AIMES.

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From GAIM to AIMES

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  1. From GAIM to AIMES Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair of IGBP

  2. IGBP II Structure

  3. IGBP Projects • Atmosphere: IGAC • Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC • Land: GLP • Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS • Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS • Land-Ocean: LOICZ • Integration: PAGES and AIMES GLP AIMES

  4. Earth System Science Partnership START Start Health Health

  5. The IGBP-AIMES Project

  6. Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System • Directions: • Synthesis of the findings from the different IGBP Projects into a coherent framework • Coupling between the biogeochemical system and the physical climate system (link between IGBP and WCRP) • Coupling the natural system with the human system (link between IGBP and IHDP)

  7. Institutional Networking • Better involve research institutions that have a broad approach in Earth System Research • These institutions could provide resources in support of IGBP science. • AIMES would offer to these institutions a platform to develop joint projects, discuss scientific achievements, develop a vision for future research, organize specific activities such as model intercomparisons, develop educational activities (PhD and post-doc program) etc. • This network would establish links between developed and emerging countries.

  8. AIMES Institutional NetworkInitial Suggestions • NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA - AIMES International Project Office • Hadley Centre, UK • MPIs - Hamburg, Jena, Mainz, Germany • Frontiers Programme, Japan • CSIRO Complex Systems Programme, Australia • IPSL, France • Tyndall Centre/QUEST, UK & PIK, Germany • EOS, U. of New Hampshire, USA • Columbia University, NY, USA • CAS/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China • Indian Institute for Science, Bangalore • INPE/CPTEC, Brazil • etc..

  9. Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System • Specific Actions related to GEIA: • From stactic (natural) emission inventories to emission models to be coupled with chemical-transport atmospheric models. • From static (anthropogenic) model inventories to emission models that account for the human dimension (economic models) • From Carbon-Climate to Carbon-Chemistry-Climate modeling (and intercomparision). • Dynamic vegetation models • Scenario activities

  10. Earth System Models of different levels of complexity

  11. Earth System Modelling

  12. Models of Dynamic Vegetation

  13. Dynamic Vegetation in Earth System Models Cox et al., Hadley Centre Kiang et al., GISS

  14. Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions

  15. Carbon Cycle-Climate Interactions C4MIP

  16. Atmospheric Chemistry-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions

  17. Stratospheric temperature Stratospheric ozone UV Vertical propagation of planetary and gravity waves Processes affecting stratospheric ozone and temperature Stratospheric circulation Chemical reaction rates PSC formation Greenhouse gases Stratospheric chlorine& nitrogen oxides concentrations Stratospheric water vapour CH4 oxidation Troposphere-stratosphere exchange Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system of chemical and dynamical parameters and processes

  18. Interactions between the Physical and Human Systems

  19. Introducing the Human Dimensions into Earth System Models Human welfare and health Ecosystem function & health

  20. IHOPE: Integrated History of People on Earth • Integrated history of natural and human system change: spatially explicit, mapped globally • Scale: last 8000 years, with higher spatial and temporal resolution for the last 300 and 100 years • Test coupled biophysical-human models against the integrated history • Project future of the ‘human enterprise’ with more confidence and skill, based on models tested against the integrated history

  21. Conclusions • AIMES should be different from GAIM. It will have to define themes (analyses, modeling) that involve many of the IGBP Projects, and has interfaces with WCRP, IHDP and Diversitas. • It should remain focussed on a limited numbers of initiatives, but these should be challenging and at the frontier of what is possible. • The focus should be on the science. • The involvement of emerging countries is key.

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