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Roll or Arcus Cloud

Roll or Arcus Cloud. Squall Lines. Supercell Thunderstorms. Bow Echos. High Resolution Numerical Prediction of Convection. Explicit Convective Prediction. Requires high resolution (4km or less grid spacing)

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Roll or Arcus Cloud

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  1. Roll or Arcus Cloud

  2. Squall Lines

  3. Supercell Thunderstorms

  4. Bow Echos

  5. High Resolution Numerical Prediction of Convection

  6. Explicit Convective Prediction • Requires high resolution (4km or less grid spacing) • Requires high-resolution analysis of current situation, using radar, surface observations and all other assets. • NCAR (WRF model) and CAPS (Oklahoma, ARPS model) are two leading efforts.

  7. 10 km WRF forecast domain 4 km WRF forecast domain Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) Using the WRF Model Goal: Study the lifecycles of mesoscale convective vortices and bow echoes in and around the St. Louis MO area Field program conducted 20 May – 6 July 2003

  8. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 9 June 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  9. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 12Z 4 km BAMEX forecast 36 h Reflectivity 4 km BAMEX forecast 12 h Reflectivity Composite NEXRAD Radar

  10. 27h WRF BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 03Z 4 km Max Reflectivity 10 km Max Reflectivity

  11. 30h WRF BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 06Z 4 km Max Reflectivity 10 km Max Reflectivity

  12. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 10 June 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  13. Real-time 12 h WRF Reflectivity Forecast Valid 6/10/03 12Z 4 km BAMEX forecast 10 km BAMEX forecast 22 km CONUS forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  14. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 30 May 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

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