Green Accounting for Sustainable Development 可持续发展的绿色核算

1. Green Accounting for Sustainable Development可持续发展的绿色核算 International and World Bank Experience 国际和世行经验 Magda Lovei Sector Manager Environment East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank

2. Outline 提纲 • Introduction 前言 • International experience 国际经验 • The World Bank’s Adjusted Net Savings methodology 世行经过调整的净储蓄方法 • Adjusted Net Savings in Asia亚洲经过调整的净储蓄 • Looking ahead 未来发展

3. 1 – Introduction 前言 Asset accounting for sustainable development 可持续发展的资产核算

4. A condition for sustainable development可持续发展的一个条件 • Society’s real wealth is not declining over time社会真正财富是不随时间而下降的 • Real wealth consists of真正财富包括： • Produced assets 生产的资产(buildings, machines, vehicles, etc.) accounted for in the National Accounts • Other assets其它资产 (expanding the measure of wealth) • Natural resources • Human capital • Social capital

5. Empirical evidence: The importance of human and social capital as component of wealth实例：人力和社会资本在财富中的重要程度

6. Empirical evidence: Large difference in the composition of natural capital across countries实例：自然资本各国差异很大

7. 2 – International experience 国际经验 Examples of accounting for asset depreciation 资产折旧核算案例

8. Capturing rents from natural resources – Example from Norway 获取自然资源的租金－挪威案例 Oil and gas – Resource rents and taxes (1985-1996) Significant amounts of rents generated by oil industry but with high fluctuations Forestry – Resource rents and taxes (1985-1995) Forests generate substantial rents – but rents accrue to private sector (which is also subsidized)

9. Assessing the “cost” of equity – Example from Norway 净资产的费用评估－挪威案例 Fisheries – Resource rents and subsidies (1985-1995) • Norway chose to support small scale fisheries to promote regional development • Fisheries do not produce positive rents • No revenue collection • Highly subsidized industry

10. Reinvesting rents into other forms of capital – Example from Botswana把租金再投向其他形式的资本－波斯瓦那案例 • Mineral revenues are 35% of GDP矿产收入占GDP的35％ • Government has developed “Sustainable Budget Index “(SBI)政府开发了可持续预算指数 • SBI measures how much of the mineral revenues are converted to other forms of assets (including expenditures on education and health) • Government guideline: no revenue from mining should be used for current expenditure

11. 3 – The World Bank’s Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) Methodology 世行经过调整的净储蓄方法 An indicator for sustainability 一个衡量可行性的指标

12. Adjusted net savings (ANS) 经过调整的净储蓄 • ANS measures the ‘change in total wealth’ over time • Sign and magnitude of ANS are key indicators of sustainability • Decomposition of ANS enables identification of policy recommendations • Negative ANS (i.e. decline of total wealth) calls for: • Improve fiscal and monetary policy • Invest more in human capital • Change policies and encourage overexploitation of natural resources • Improve policies that encourage better pollution management

13. Adjusted net savings 经过调整的净储蓄% of GNI 2002 占国民总收入的百分比2002

14. Empirical evidence 实例 • Low income countries have the lowest ANS • Lower income  lower savings • Lower income  higher dependence on natural resources • East Asia and pacific have the highest ANS (because of very high gross national saving) • Middle East and North Africa have the lowest ANS (because of oil extraction)

15. Implications for sustainability across regions 可持续性的区域比较 Middle East and Africa are on an unsustainable path – Latin America has low savings rates – East Asia benefits from high National Savings (2002)

16. Stark differences between traditional and adjusted net savings 传统和调整后的净储蓄的差异 Sub-Saharan Africa - Adjusted Net Saving reveals a different story from traditional measures of saving

17. 4 – Adjusted net savings in Asia 亚洲调整后的净储蓄 Evidence and research needs

18. Comparing gross and adjusted net savings 储蓄总量和调整后的净储蓄比较

19. Indonesia – natural resources exploitation has increased with the crisis 印度尼西亚－自然资源的开发已经增加危机

20. Malaysia – education expenditure is an important part of investments 马来西亚－教育是投资的重要部分

21. China – a successful story but with more to learn 中国－一个成功的故事但仍有很多需要学习

22. 5 – Looking ahead 未来 Challenges and opportunities 挑战与机遇

23. Challenges 挑战 • Environmental accounts are mostly used in industrialized countries • Asset accounts are seldom used to assess sustainability • Sustainability can only be measured if all assets are included (e.g. need to do more work on soil erosion, groundwater, fisheries) • Controversy over measurement of monetary values has made it more difficult to attract policymakers • International comparisons are important but methodologies differ widely across countries (except ANS)

24. Opportunities for China 中国的机遇 • High potential to go beyond current asset accounting to analyze nationally relevant issues • Ongoing efforts on ‘cost of environmental degradation’ can be exploited for improved asset accounting • Use research results on local air and water pollution • Use information on soil erosion • Access to international experience and examples to multilateral institutions

25. Concluding remarks • “Greening” national accounts is an important step toward measuring sustainability and informing policymaking • Also important is to focus on the quality of assets, policies incentives, and behavior that influence the sustainability of development • China can build on a strong foundation of research and international experience • The World Bank is proud to support China’s endeavor