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The Great Waterspout Outbreak of 2011: Unveiling Nature's Spectacle

Dive into the details of the major waterspout outbreak in Lake Michigan, a meteorological phenomenon featuring 20+ waterspouts. Witness the atmospheric conditions, event predictability, and confirmed sightings that marked this extraordinary event. Discover how synoptic pattern recognition, climatology, and innovative prognostic systems contributed to predicting and understanding this natural spectacle in 2011. Contact Wade Szilagyi for further insights.

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The Great Waterspout Outbreak of 2011: Unveiling Nature's Spectacle

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  1. The Great Waterspout Outbreak of 2011(Lake Michigan, Sept. 24, 2011) Wade Szilagyi, MeteorologistMeteorological Service of CanadaDirector, International Centre For Waterspout Research

  2. Highlights • Major waterspout outbreak • 20+ waterspouts! • Major media event • Highlight of a larger event over lower Great Lakes (Sept. 23-30) • 3rd largest outbreak since studies began in 1994 • Last major outbreak 2003 (21+ waterspouts) • 58 photos / videos

  3. Atmospheric Conditions • Major upper low (4 closed contours at 500 mb) over southern Lake Michigan • Cool air mass (T850 = 4 C) • Unseasonably warm water (Tlake =19 C) • Moderate thermal contrast (T = 15 C) • Convectiontotropopause (Z = 23,900 ft) • Light winds (850wind = 170° / 6 kts)

  4. Event Predictability(Synoptic Pattern Recognition / Climatology) • Alerted to waterspout potential days in advance through synoptic pattern recognition and waterspout climatology • Major upper low, above ave. water temps., peak of waterspout season (Sept.)

  5. Event Predictability(Waterspout Nomogram) • Confirmation of waterspout potential using the Waterspout Nomogram • T = 15 C • Z = 23,900 ft • 850wind = 6 kts

  6. Event Predictability(Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI)) • Quantifies waterspout potential • Based on the Waterspout Nomogram • -10 ≤ SWI ≤ +10 • Waterspouts are likely when SWI ≥ 0 • SWI ranged from 2 to 6

  7. Event Predictability(New Experimental Waterspout Prognostic System) • Geographical display of SWI • Dramatically reduces diagnosis time • Dramatic increase in temporal and spatial resolution (3hr time steps for 2143 points out to 48 hours) • More efficient coordination • Upstream events identified • Much of Lake Michigan showed waterspout potential

  8. Confirmed Sightings

  9. Milwaukee

  10. Milwaukee

  11. Chicago

  12. Kenosha

  13. Conclusions • Outbreak occurred because: • Cool air mass • Unseasonably warm water • Major upper low • Improved reporting technology (Twitter, Facebook, media web sites, cell phone cameras, etc.)

  14. Questions ? • Contact Wade at: • wade.szilagyi@ec.gc.ca • www.icwr.ca (International Centre For Waterspout Research)

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