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Residential Real Estate: Hope for Housing? Presented by Paul E. Chandler, MAI Property Sciences

33 rd Annual Real Estate and Economics Symposium Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics University of California at Berkeley. Residential Real Estate: Hope for Housing? Presented by Paul E. Chandler, MAI Property Sciences President & CEO November 22 nd 2010.

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Residential Real Estate: Hope for Housing? Presented by Paul E. Chandler, MAI Property Sciences

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  1. 33rd Annual Real Estate and Economics SymposiumFisher Center for Real Estate and Urban EconomicsUniversity of California at Berkeley Residential Real Estate: Hope for Housing? Presented by Paul E. Chandler, MAI Property Sciences President & CEO November 22nd 2010

  2. March 1990 Peak of Last Cycle A home that sold in March 1990 in Beverly Hills, California for $1,650,000 did not sell for $1,650,000 again until when? A) 8 years later B) 10 years later C) 12 years later D) 14 years later

  3. March 1990 Peak of Last Cycle A home that sold in March 1990 in Beverly Hills, California for $1,650,000 did not sell for $1,650,000 again until when? A) 8 years later B) 10 years later C) 12 years later D) 14 years later, March 2004

  4. Los Angeles Luxury Home Price Trend 1985 - 2010 March 1990, $1,648,000 Source: First Republic Prestige Index

  5. 20 Year Price Cycle- Los Angeles ($000’s) $1,959 $2,468 $1,658 $975 $1,648 June 2010 - Recent June 2007 - Peak March 2004 - Even Dec 1996 - Trough March 1990 - Peak 20 years less than 1% per year Peak to peak -17 years, 3% per year Nearly 7 years peak to trough 14 years peak to even Source: First Republic Prestige Index

  6. Hierarchy of Value $5,000,000 and Above Estate High-End $2,000,000 - $5,000,000 Affluent $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 Move-Up Market $500,000 - $1,000,000 Affordable $500,000 and Below

  7. Phoenix Listing Inventory(City of Phoenix) 46% of listings are short sales Source: Property Sciences

  8. Sacramento Listing Inventory(Sacramento County) 58% of listings are short sales Source: Property Sciences

  9. Las Vegas Listing Inventory(Greater Las Vegas) 63% of listings are short sales Source: Property Sciences

  10. Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV) Zip Codes- 89135, 89144, 89145 Upper Quartile Bottom Quartile Source: Altos Research LLC

  11. West Coast Housing Undersupply 2010 Cumulative % of Population Deficit Pop. Source: NAHB, US Census

  12. Signs of Hope for Housing Housing Permits- 50 Year Low Population Growth- 3MM Per Year Land Prices- Cheap Construction Costs- Down Affordability- High

  13. Opportunities in the Near Term • Smaller Homes • Affordable Areas • Historical High Growth Markets • First Time Home Buyers • Senior Housing

  14. Contact Information Paul ChandlerPresident and CEO Property SciencesTel: (925) 246-7301 E-mail: paul.chandler@propsci.com www.PropSci.com

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