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The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas

The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas. Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University Presentation to Chapter 13 Consumer Bankruptcy Seminar Arlington, Texas November 9, 2009. Madoff New York Mag.

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The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas

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  1. The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University Presentation to Chapter 13 Consumer Bankruptcy Seminar Arlington, Texas November 9, 2009

  2. Madoff New York Mag

  3. Delinquent Mortgages by Type of Loan Source: Wall Street Journal

  4. Taking Shelter Source: Wall Street Journal

  5. Metros Differ in Subprime Delinquency Rates

  6. Subprime Mortgages Highest in D-FW

  7. Forced Home Sales

  8. Top 5 States Underwater Top states where home mortgage holders in selected markets owed more than their property was worth at the end of June: Sources: First American CoreLogic

  9. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Change in home prices in July 2009 compared with a year earlier. Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Fiserv

  10. The Scream

  11. Household Net Worth Source: New York Times

  12. Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product 2Q 2009: -0.7% 2005 2006 2007 2008 ’09 Source: Commerce Department

  13. Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands Sept ’09: -263,000 2007 2008 2009 Source: Labor Department

  14. U. S. Jobless Rate Sept. ’09: 9.8% In percent, seasonally adjusted: 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  15. Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Sept. 2009: $345.8 billion 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Commerce Department

  16. Personal Consumption In trillions Aug 2009: $10.2 trillion 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

  17. Industrial Production Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted Sept. 2009: 97.5 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  18. Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Aug 2009: $941.9 billion 2008 2009 Source: Commerce Department

  19. Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sept. Starts:590,000 2008 2009 Source: Dept. of Commerce; Dept. of H.U.D.; Census Bureau

  20. Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Aug. 2009: 0.2% 0 0 0 0 2008 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Tracking the Bailout

  22. Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2007: -$163 billion 2008: -$454 billion 2009 Estimate: -$1.4 trillion 2010 Projected: -1.2 trillion Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections

  23. Unemployment Rate, U. S., Texas, & D/FW U. S. Sept. 2009 = 9.8% Texas Aug. 2009 = 8.0% D/FW Aug. 2009 = 8.2% U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Texas Workforce Commission

  24. Employment Change 2004-2007 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

  25. DFW MSA Projected Population 2005-2040 By Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario* Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario

  26. Major Threats to Texas Economy • Unstable Energy Prices • Drop in Defense Spending • Lower US Exports • Falling State and Local Tax Receipts

  27. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: 2006-2009 Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate Spot Average (Dollars per barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot (Dollars per thousand cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg.com

  28. Trends in State Government Revenues In Billions Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts

  29. Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Sept. 2009: 53.1 2008 2009 Source: The Conference Board

  30. Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. Aug 2009: 102.2 2007 2008 2009 Source: The Conference Board

  31. Savings Rate Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Aug 2009: 3.0% 2007 2008 2009 *May & June savings pattern influenced by Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis

  32. What good are Economists

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