Disasters ( Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2 )

1. Geography 106bHazards Disasters(Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2) • short history of disaster research • defining disasters • disasters worldwide • disaster trends • explaining disaster trends • two schools of thought on disaster trends Geog 152b

2. Short History of Disaster Research • funded by military in USA • military interested: disaster recovery, specifically psychological stress - individuals and social organization under stress • emphasis on large-scale, sudden, rare “civilian” disasters – akin to warfare bombing • emphasis on how to establish command and control structures post-disaster • little on emergency preparedness Geog 152b

3. Defining Disasters Question: • Why do you suppose the definition of a “disaster” is so critical that an entire book has been devoted to the topic? (Quarantelli, E.(1998) What is a Disaster?) Geog 152b

4. Defining Disasters Database Problems • disasters co-occur e.g., cyclones and floods; landslides and earthquakes • mortality difficult to count e.g., primary effect vs secondary effects (famine, epidemics in refugee camps) • lack of census taking generally in LDCs • what gets counted? – thresholds reasonable? Implication • worst case e.g., up to twofold difference in reporting for same area same time period (Mitchell, 1989) Geog 152b

5. What Counts? Geog 152b

6. CRED and EM-DAT • major international disaster data centre • more inclusive CRED event-threshold criteria • 10 or more deaths per event • at least 100 persons affected • drought or famine – 2000 persons affected • OR government disaster declaration • OR plea for international assistance • industrial(technological) disasters always use more inclusive since impacts typically much lower • 5 or more deaths per event Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Geog 152b

7. Defining Disasters Absolute vs Relative Statistics • data often presented in absolute terms – numbers dead, $billions lost • impact of losses felt differently one place to next • e.g., 10 fishers lost in remote village of 200 vs 10 factory workers in city of 200,000 • place disasters in community/regional context Geog 152b

8. Media and Disasters media concentration on • human interest • visual impact • events close to home • prioritized according to “western perspective” - Adams (1986) death of one Westerner = 3 East Europeans 9 Latin Americans 11 Middle Easterners 12 Asians Geog 152b

9. Type of Disaster and Type of Impact • impacts vary by disaster type • e.g., earthquakes tend to include more deaths • e.g., floods = more affected - homelessness Geog 152b

10. Exercise:Identifying Disasters • Break into groups of four and discuss: • Which of the following should qualify as a “disaster” • 1998 East Canada ice storm • Walkerton tainted water • 2003 Canada/US blackout • Love Canal toxic waste • Three Mile Island nuclear power plant • if you do not know details, speculate Geog 152b

11. Disasters Increasing? • Is the number of disasters increasing? Geog 152b

12. Disasters Increasing? • yes • not just improvement in reporting • improvement in reporting likely overestimate the magnitude of increase • e.g., 80s & 90s each four times more events than 50s • rank order of disaster frequency relatively stable Geog 152b

13. DisasterEvent Thresholds “Natural” vs “Industrial” Geog 152b

14. Disaster DataBeware High Magnitude Events • single high impact events can overwhelm trend data (e.g., Bangladesh cyclone; Tangshan earthquake) Geog 152b

15. Disasters Over Time Go see up-to-date trend data from EM-DAT here: EMDAT - The International Emergency Disasters Database Geog 152b

16. Rank Order of Disaster Incidence Geog 152b

17. LDCs Greatest Impacts • whether measured in absolute terms (e.g., deaths) or relative terms (e.g, deaths per 100,000) – LDCs do worse Geog 152b

18. LDCs Greatest ImpactsAbsolute Terms Geog 152b

19. LDCs Greatest ImpactsAbsolute Terms Geog 152b

20. LDCs Greatest ImpactsRelative Terms Geog 152b

21. LDCs Greatest ImpactsRelative Terms Geog 152b

22. Disaster Impact Trends • most impacts have increased over time • property damage • persons affected • deaths (adjust for major epidemics) • but not in equal proportions • deaths increased twofold increase • economic damages fourfold increase Geog 152b

23. Disaster Impact Trends Geog 152b

24. Disaster Impact TrendsIncreases in Economic Losses Geog 152b

25. Disaster Impact Trends • in many of the MDCs inverse relationship between economic losses and fatalities from disasters over time Geog 152b

26. Explanation of Growing Impacts Questions • What explains the patterns of increasing disaster impacts? • What explains the differences between MDCs and LDCs? • Describe a scenario of impacts in an LCD from a natural disaster. Geog 152b

27. Explanation of Growing Impacts Scenario: • Indian farmer, farms land on fertile coastal plain • subsistence agriculture – e.g. root crops • cyclone hits and devastates crop due to flooding • remainder of year, engages in environmentally threatening wood-cutting • accepts aid, but encouraged to grow cash crop – e.g., spices – by aid donor • crop/way of life changes, but not vulnerability (which may have actually increased due to wood cutting) Geog 152b

28. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts population growth • 6.4 billion, growing steeply • 90% growth in developing world • safe drinking water, food shelter low even in non-disaster times • pressure large families still Geog 152b

29. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts land pressure • approx. 1 billion live on severely degraded land • poverty/unequal access to arable land = unsustainable farming practices • soil erosion, deforestation, over-cultivation • e.g., clearing of coastal mangrove forests for plantation monoculture (fish farming) • monoculture – loss of biodiversity (natural protection against hazards) Geog 152b

30. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts urbanization • globalization = rural → urban flight • squatter settlements (in LDCs) growing faster than LDCs Geog 152b

31. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts inequality • gap between rich and poor growing! • 20% of world population controls approx. 80% of wealth Geog 152b

32. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts climate change • flooding and coastal areas • potential increased disease • felt most in areas already under stress i.e. (LDC’s) political change • less government involvement • more privatization (free-market ideals) • less development aid (pre-Tsunami) Geog 152b

33. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts economic growth and technological innovation • accumulation of wealth in MDCs especially = more at risk • growth in technological “threat”, e.g., about 700 new chemicals produced annually Geog 152b

34. Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts social expectations (pressure) • people expect technology to work irrespective of, e.g., weather conditions • e.g., fly in severe weather global interdependence • LDCs incorporated, but produce mainly primary commodities • primary commodity prices dropped • LDC high foreign debt Geog 152b

35. END LECTURE Geog 152b

36. Disaster Paradigms in Detail What distinguishes the following two broad ways of looking at (i.e., paradigms) disasters: • Behavioural/Ecological • Structural/Critical Geog 152b