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Ivo Šlaus

Ivo Šlaus. Development and Environment – We Need a Box of New Tools.

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Ivo Šlaus

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  1. Ivo Šlaus Development and Environment – We Need a Box of New Tools

  2. Rodrigo Rato: Three greatest threats we face today are:1) financial instability → economic crisis ? 2) demographic transition → to 10 G and then to 2 G ? 3) climate change Human beings generated! Interconnected and global.(Annual conference of The Club if Rome, Madrid 2007) How these threats influence development? Millennium development goals!

  3. Does the requirement of the sustainable world imply the limit to growth and the limit to development? ☺Creative capacity of human beings implies a possibility of a continuous increase of human capital and social capital and of increasing freedom and number of options. However, what is development? ☺Development as freedom (A. Sen) Aren’t we overwhelmed by a multitude of options? (“The choice explosion” – P.F.Drucker, W.T. Anderson) ♣ Do we know enough, are we wise to choose?

  4. The greatest obstacles are individual and social inner limits - psychological, cultural and political expressed through personal and collective myopia, irresponsibility and incorrect governance. “The most valuable assets humankind can count on..to stop the decline and to prepare for the future are to be found in the still untapped resources of comprehension, vision and creativity..inherent in every human being.” A. Peccei, Agenda for the End of the Century, March 14, 1984

  5. ☼“People are the real wealth of nations. The basic aim of development is to enlarge human freedom and choices so that people live full and creative lives. This must benefit everybody equitably.” The State of Human Development, Human development indicators, 2004, p.127, UNDP ☼ We add: people - healthy, educated, active and happy, living in a society of social justice and social cohesion in a healthy environment assuring sustainable development. This and not more:not perfect people. People are the generator and depositor of knowledge.

  6. «Work is a love made visible» (Kh. Gibran) Everybody including very old, ill and disabled persons can work and enjoys work. Work done by unemployed persons (nonmonetizable). Employment is important socially, economically and politically. Unemployed person has social, economic, political and psychological problems - cannot obtain loans, cannot form families, or family can break as a result of the unemployment stress. Unemployed person looses social esteem, becomes unhealthy, uneducated and poor. 9.5 M American now out of work, 159,000 jobs lost in Sep/08 Employment - double helix: employment+education Permanent, lifelong, changing,flexi(ble+se)curity

  7. Full employment with flexibility (flexicurity), no age discrimination and lifelong education (India Congress Party and Prof. Horst Köhler, president BRD: Oct 2007, Berlin Address)

  8. Humans← biological and cultural evolution humans change, and humans change the world they live in, (Crutzen) current geological epoch: Anthropocene. τ (changes) <τ(human life) <<τ (changes centuries ago) Human biological evolution accelerated 100-fold in last 5- 10,000 years. Driving forces: growth of the world’s population and world changed due to agricul., animals domestic. and human habitats. (e.g. success of mutation causing to digest lactose (over the last 3,000 years). Genes controlling the glucose metabolism in the brain recently evolved, possibly being essential for the human brain growth to the size twice that of our nearest cousin - chimpanzee, and possibly suggesting why humans do and chimpanzees do not have diabetes.

  9. Intertwining: humans ↔ machines and synthetic biology • 2020 nanomachines will be routinely used in medicine -entering the bloodstream to feed cells and to extract waste. Computers will anticipate what we want. • 2030 mind uploading will be possible • 2040 human body 3.0 could alter its shape and organs can be replaced by superior cyber implants. • Synthetic biology = design and construction of new biological devices and systems that do not exist in the natural world ← converging technologies: nanotechnology (manipulation with atoms), biotechnology (genes), information technology (bits) and cognitive neuroscience (neurons).

  10. Measurement Feasibility, Reliability and Uncertainty ↕Robustness  INDICATORS  Input / Output ↕(GDP, HDI ) quantitative ↔ qualitative (case studies) Inadequacies of GDP  Human Development Index-HDI, Index of sustainable economic welfare (ISEW) • Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) USA • 1950 1970 1990 2000 • GDP/c 11,672 18,773 28,434 36,595 • GPI/c 8,611 13,034 14,893 15,035 • Beyond GDP - EU and CoR, Nov 2007

  11. R.F. Kennedy “ We will find neither national purpose nor personal satisfaction in an endless amassing of worldly goods. We cannot measure national achievements by GDP, since GDP includes air pollution, cigarette advertisement and ambulances to clear our highways after carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and jails for people who break them. GDP includes destruction of redwoods and of Lake Superior. GDP grows with the production of napalm and nuclear warheads. It does not include the health of our families, the quality of their education, it is indifferent to the safety of our streets... In short, GDP measures everything except what makes life worthwhile.”

  12. Economy♣ Is an increasing inequality even if eventually economic growth – “the rising tide will lift all boats” compatible with the axiom “people are the wealth of nations”? Plato argued that the common good required that the ratio between the rich and the poor be 5:1, and J.P. Morgan thought that bosses should have not more than 20 times the salary of their workers. Global Inequalities Fades as Global Economy Grows ?! Xavier Sala-i-Martin 2002Free Market:- it is more than democracy since no tyranny of majority, - but, irrationality of the crowd, even tyranny of the mob- reality vs virtualityTrust – Potemkin’s villages MoneyMonetary transaction vs global GDP, special tax on speculative tns

  13. ♣ outsourcing: ICT sector ave salaries: USA = $ 75k; India = $ 8k, Brazil = $ 13k; India: 1.6 M ICT employees, +495,000/y; Brazil: 1 M, +100,000/y ♣ mobile phones: in 2008: world: 3.3 G subscriptions, BRIC=1 G. 10 cell/100 people GDP ↑ 0.5% 2005 (London Business School) ♣ 80% of world population within cell phone reach vs 40% in 2000 ♣ work everywhere and always, connected to millions ♣ China economy overtakes USA in 2025, in 2050  130% of USA. Chinese CO2 emission = USA in 2010 2050 E7 (BRIC, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) =1.5 G7 ♣ Loss (theft) of data, e.g. D-Telekom lost personal data on 17 M customers

  14. ♣ 24 “globalizers” (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs “nonglobalizers” decreased by 1% ♣400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years ago ♣By 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now ♣Worker/producer ← person (prosumer) ↓ consumer/shareholder Intertwining knowledge, economy and governance thru networking involving researchers, politicians, policy-makers, decision-makers, industrialists, entrepreneurs, workers, share-holders, stake-holders as well as institutions.

  15. The contemporary world: ◙ globalization – science generated (Th. Friedman: 3 phases of globalization: 1) driven by states, 2) by states and MNC and 3) by and empowering individuals) ◙ rapid changes – science generated (♥ we would be amoebas if there were no change) ◙characterized by uncertainties and instabilities ◙number of Earths required to provide resources used by humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year: 1970 1980 2005 2007 Goal: 2050 0.86 1.00 1.25 1.27 1.00 (???) ENVIRONMENT - ENERGY - FOOD - WATER World is dangerously in a state of overshoot. ◙ Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance

  16. Progress and Public opinion • Enormous progress has been achieved: • -in 1893 only New Zealand could be considered a true democracy, • - in 1972 there were 43 free, 38 partly free and 69 not free countries, • in 2002 there were 89 free countries, 56 partly free and 47 not free. • and yet

  17. Citizens are not satisfied with their political systems. Gallup International's May 2005 Voice of the People survey of 50,000 citizens across 65 countries on 6 continents results statistically representative of the views of 1.4 billion citizens. Only 7% of the respondents strongly agree with the statement that the world is going in the right direction, and additional 23%somewhat agree with that statement, a mere 30% to be compared with 36% in the year 2001. 61%: globalization has a positive effect on them/ their families increased from 2001 when it has been 55%.

  18. Development measured by Human Development Index (HDI) is related to energy consumption: If energy consumption ≤ 3 tons of oil equivalent/c.y → HDI increases rapidly with energy consumption. Above that level → no correlation between HDI and energy consumption. If all countries reach 3 toe/capita.year → by 2030 the energy consumption would be doubled if our population remains constant. If increased to 8.1 billion → 2.6 times larger.

  19. Fresh water – irreplaceable and finite resource. To produce 1 gallon of diesel fuel one needs 9,000 gallons of water. To produce enough corn for the same amount of ethanol one needs 4,000 gallons of water. vs. To produce enough food to meet the caloric needs of a person in Egypt (California) ↔ 666 (1300) gallons of water. Hamburger+fries+cola = 5,000 liters of water By 2025 one third of world population (3 billions) will face water shortage. Energy - Food - Environment ↔ interconnected

  20. Science is human beings’s greatest achievement and success ☺Progress in science and novel understanding, e.g.: quantum physics; theory of relativity: special and general; Standard model and its limitations: WMAP: only 4% of ordinary matter, 23% dark matter (?), 73% dark energy (?), age of our universe =13.7± 0.3 Gyear; nanosciences and their relevance in many areas; DNA; advent of genetic engineering; advances in life sciences; brain research advances in chemistry and geosciences; advances in psychology and social sciences ☺Consilience – advances in all sci disciplines, interdisciplinarity.

  21. Though the world is globalized in almost all dimensions: economically, socially even biologically and though there are many international associations, value and politics and education are NOT GLOBAL. There are about 200 nation(so called)-states + 600,000 TNC (their wealth comparable to GDP of medium-size countries) + 50,000 international civil societies + 5,000-10,000 different cultures (languages) (90% with less than 10,000 persons).

  22. EconomyKnowledgeGovernanceCulture Production Science StructureReligion Consumption (phys, life, soc) Systems/bureauc Ethics Agriculture Humanities Rule of law Industry Technology Policy-making Service Innovation Decision-making Employment Invention Politics Competitiveness R&D GDP vs GPI Culture of Knowledge └↔↔↔↔↔↔↔↔↔┘ coopetitiveness cooperation

  23. ¿V a l u e s? EconomyKnowledgeGovernance Religion First level Profit Cumulative, Objective Salvation Work/ Problem solving employment (where the light is) Art of possible (self-service) (and influenced Political power Welfare bysocio-culture) Social cohesion & justice Curiosity Higher level h u m a n b e i n g s - h u m a n i t y

  24. Many dangers and threats are recent (+ financial and demographic instabilities), and many new will appear. Many recent opportunities and options, and new will appear. Future = predicted events + surprises → Scenaria • Scenaria are rigorous, logical, but imaginative stories about what future might be, designed to help plan. • Scenaria are NOT predictions. Multiple scenaria. They are tools for preparation – early 70-ies by Shell. Now IBM, Coca-Cola, Apple, AT&T, DARPA, Heineken, Kellogg, Republic of Singapore,... • Scenaria identify “predetermineds”, “critical uncertainties”, “wild cards”, “embedded assumptions” and it is useful if scenaria have “early warnings”.

  25. Business-as-usual (never fully realizes) • Meadows et al(math.modeldiff.eqs, t-dependence of 45 variables and their interdependence). 1972 Limits to growth • 3) The Heaven Scenario • Ray Kurzweil “Singularity is near”: conquering disease & poverty, technology is in control, but wisdom, truth, ... peace? • 4)The Hell Scenario • Bill Joy “Why the future does not need us”, F. Fukuyama “Our posthuman future”: hostile world, destroying biosphere. • 5) The Prevail Scenario • Jaron Zepel Lanier (named “virtual reality”) “The Future that Loves Us”: increasing links among humans, transcendence is social, not solitary. Human are choosing their future. • 6) Self-organized Mapping Neural network model (Najdovski, Zidanšek, Šlaus)

  26. This SOM-NN model is so far only a static model and it does not show development. However, • it does show the important role of cultures in development • and • the role of the “integration” of individual, autonomous entities, e.g. Europe of regions /world of regions – which could help to overcome the “number conflict” 200 vs 10,000

  27. Conclusion ♣ In a global world problems and threats cannot be contained - they affect the entire world quite rapidly. ♣ Present world is not fully global, i.e. it is not global when it has to react, and particularly when it has to anticipate, stimulate and generate desirable changes. ♣ Not so long ago it seemed that consumption even extensive and unnecessary one is beneficial.

  28. ♣ Present world is dramatically different from anything that our history recorded, but most of the “tools” are old tools from the old box, e.g. sovereign nation-states and their systems of alliances and balance of power, national economies including taxes, money, employment till the age of 65 followed by pensions, legal and judiciary systems. Many of these tools were used for most of 10,000 years, and some are recent, but it is likely that “tools” designed for an almost static and fragmented world are not all equally suitable now.

  29. ♠ Therefore, we are entangled in a conflict of old tools and contemporary needs, e.g. solving • the global economic crisis, • gross inequalities resulting in poverty and hunger, • insecurities rooted in economic reasons and gross violation of human and social rights and dignities. • ♠ “Time is out of joint” • time interval to apply certain actions >>τ (change) • Yet, it is dangerous not to act. • Trust in the system - panic! • “Nothing to fear, but fear itself.” (FDR)

  30. ♠ Old tools and inadequate indicators lead to wrong actions. Historical analogies not necessarily correct: 2008 vs 1929 vs 1907; J.P. Morgan vs. W. Buffet – however present world is very different. “equal” are our hunter-gatherer instincts and concepts ♠ “What can the state do to save the business?” (Klaus Schwab, WEF) – however, we need global action and global solutions. ♠ There are no global political and regulatory mechanisms and self interest dominates.

  31. ☼ Science is certainly human beings greatest success - let us use scientific research as role-model for economy, governance and human behaviour. ☼ Our knowledge is still grossly inadequte and much more research and investment in research, trully the culture of knowledge, are needed. ☼ To preserve human well-being over the long time, people need to move toward new ways of meeting human needs, adopting conumption and production patterns that maintain the Earth’s life support system and safeguard the resources by future generations.” InterAcademy Panel, Academies of sciences, Tokyo, May 21, 2000 “Transition to Sustainability”

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