NOAA and the International Polar Year A Presentation to the OPP Office Advisory Committee

1. NOAA and the International Polar Year A Presentation to the OPP Office Advisory Committee Dr. John A. Calder Director NOAA Arctic Research Office May 9, 2005

2. NOAA’s Mission and the IPY • NOAA = to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs • Requires global perspective • Recent emphasis on polar aspects of global climate system and connections to mid-latitudes • NOAA leads U.S. climate program and is responsible for weather forecasting and stewardship of marine resources – key Alaskan/Arctic issues

3. Why NOAA in the IPY? • ACIA provided evidence of recent climate change and multiple impacts • Projected serious impacts based on IPCC scenarios • Stimulated discussion - global warming or natural variability? • Demonstrates need for NOAA to provide unbiased, freely available data and better projections of future trends • Climate Change Science Plan recognizes need for better observations and models in polar regions • NOAA Climate Goal leader considering program increases in polar regions • IPY presents opportunity for GEOSS to initiate an Arctic component with willing and capable international partners

4. NOAA IPY Planning and Coordination • Internal • All Line Offices submitted ideas, resulted in 10 Expressions of Intent to IPY • External • Mahoney, Rosen presented NOAA’s plans at interagency fora and Rosen presented at American Meteorological Society

5. NOAA Submissions to IPY EXPLORATION • Ocean Exploration in Polar Regions OBSERVATIONS • Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic • International Arctic System for Observing the Atmosphere (Core Program) • Polar stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations PREDICTION AND MODELING • Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP) • Advances in Satellite Products and Their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction • Arctic Climate Modeling • Arctic System Reanalysis DATA, OUTREACH AND DECISION SUPPORT • NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection Strategy for the IPY • Outreach and decision support for increasing adaptive capacity to climate change and variability in Alaska and the Arctic.

6. 1. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration will support interdisciplinary polar voyages of discovery to: • map and explore the polar oceans at new scales, • develop a more thorough understanding of polar ocean dynamics and interactions at new levels, • develop new sensors and systems, and • share the excitement of discovery with the public. Image courtesy of Ian MacDonald

7. 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic Ecosystem Change

8. 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic

9. Automated Drifting Stations Ice Mass Balance buoys

10. 3. Arctic Atmospheric Observatories To understand the Arctic atmosphere it is necessary to have detailed measurements of clouds, aerosols, radiation, water vapor, surface fluxes, as well as surface and upper air temperature, moisture, and wind measurements. • Clouds and aerosols in the Arctic have a major influence on surface radiation budgets and resulting surface temperatures, ice ablation/melt rates, and the onset of the annual snow melt season. • Major components of an Arctic Atmospheric Observatory are active cloud sensors, passive and in-situ aerosol sensors, broadband radiation fluxes (up and down), surface fluxes, spectral radiometry, and rawinsondes.

11. Tiksi, Russia Barrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Alert, Canada Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Summit, Greenland

12. 4.Polar Atmospheric Chemistry for Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases • NOAA will continue atmospheric monitoring at South Pole and Barrow for greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and aerosols, along with laboratory and field research into stratospheric change and ozone destruction and recovery. • NOAA will continue its support for cooperative monitoring projects and will welcome IPY scientists.

13. 5. Improving Short-term Arctic Forecastsand Understanding Teleconnections WMO-THORPEX PLANS FIELD PROGRAM DURING IPY • Utilize enhanced IPY polar observing system in NWP • Enhance atmospheric observations in NW Pacific • Targeted to improve Alaskan (and Northern Canadian) forecasts • Study mid-latitude – polar interaction on daily time scale • Evaluate effect of enhanced observing system on forecasts Study combined effect of North Pacific & polar region observations on 2-3 day forecasts over polar regions of NA and on 3-14 day forecasts over NA, NH, Global domains • Will lead to • Links between polar and mid-latitude weather process • Improved targeted weather forecasts • Improved sea ice and air quality forecasts

14. 6. Advances in Satellite Applications for Polar Studies Objectives: Improve satellite retrieval science and develop new products Validate satellite products using in situ data collected during IPY Improve model assimilation of satellite products to improve forecasts in the high latitudes and globally Conduct retrospective analyses of satellite data to detect climate change Support other IPY projects with satellite products New satellite sounders will provide high vertical resolution of the atmosphere and new spectral information for cloud property retrievals. (Moisture weighting functions shown here) Polar satellite products help reduce forecast busts globally (MODIS polar winds in this case)

15. FORCING VALIDATION NESDIS TOA IRRADIANCE AND CLOUD RETRIEVALS NCEP NUMERICAL FORECASTS TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ADVECTION AND WINDS CLOUD PROPERTIES GCM PHYSICS SURFACE RADIATIVE AND TURBULENT FLUXES; PRECIPITATION SURFACE ALBEDO AND TEMPERATURE SURFACE VARIABLES AND ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS 7. IMPROVING CLIMATE MODELS IN THE ARCTIC GFDL SINGLE COLUMN MODEL Improve the physics of GCMs by taking advantage of the rich data to be derived from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories and satellites Test single column models against the observations and apply knowledge gained to improve GCMs Share integrated dataset with research community ETL: ARCTIC ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATORIES

16. 8. Arctic System Reanalysis • “Reanalysis” provides a physically consistent description of the climate system that can be used to detect change and provide attribution. • No previous effort has focused on the entire Arctic region, nor have the models been formulated to account for uniquely Arctic processes. • ASR will include not only atmospheric data and models, but also attempt to include sea ice and upper ocean to account for the tight coupling between them. • The longer-term goal of the ASR is to evolve to an operational state in which these activities continue indefinitely for climate research and forecasting

17. 9a. Data Management Fundamental goal: Securely archive a baseline against which to assess future change. Ensure that IPY data are accessible and preserved for current and future users. NOAA’s National Data Centers also serve as World Data Centers, a legacy of the 1957-1958 IGY. They and other global WDCs are an infrastructure to build upon to meet IPY data management objectives. • Ensure that IPY projects follow IPY guidelines. Make compliance simple. Offer tools, tutorials. • Ensure that standards such as the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model and the ISO19115 metadata standard are met • Serve as clearinghouse and facilitator for data management issues.

18. 1970 1980 1990 2000 9b. Main Indicators in Arctic Change Detection Website PUBLIC RELEASE: Nov 9, 2004 -- http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect Large Changes in Recent Years are Highlighted in Red • Highest 1/3 • Middle 1/3 • Lowest 1/3

19. 10. NOAA IPY Regional Climate Decision Support IPY is a unique opportunity to develop an integrated Climate Regional Decision Support Program integrating monitoring, data services, research, operational servicedelivery, and customer support. • Meet demands for decision support in Alaska through an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach • Expand the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program and Regional Climate Centers Program • Integrate it with the NWS regional climate services program and the Alaska State Climatologist • Collaborate with other Arctic countries to develop broader decision-support efforts and make a lasting contribution to IPY and beyond.