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Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise

First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations in GEM-LAM simulations PART II. Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise. Reduction of domain size. Integral. 58. 140x140. 55. 15. 70x92.

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Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise

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  1. First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations in GEM-LAM simulationsPART II Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise

  2. Reduction of domain size • Integral 58 140x140 55 15 70x92 Core of the small domain and the common region used to compute grid statistics in the following • Core only 100x100 ~5500km 30x52

  3. GZ850 • Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area • (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small P - P + DJF MMA JJA SON MMA JJA SON DJF

  4. GZ850 • Error magnitude: 2xRMS standard deviation of the ensemble average • Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small Error P - P + dam DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON

  5. 99.9 99.5 99.0 97.5 95.0 90.0 90.0 95.0 97.5 99.0 99.5 99.9 GZ850: WKLCL(-), JJA • Internal variability % • Rejection level for H0 • S • L • signal • L • S • S • L

  6. PCP • Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area • (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small P - P + DJF MMA JJA SON MMA JJA SON DJF

  7. PCP • Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average • Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small Error mm/day P - P + DJF MMA JJA SON MMA JJA SON DJF

  8. 99.9 99.5 99.0 97.5 95.0 90.0 90.0 95.0 97.5 99.0 99.5 99.9 PCP: WKLCL(+), JJA • Internal variability % • Rejection level for H0 • S • L • signal • L • S • S • L

  9. TTscn • Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area • (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small P - P + DJF MMA JJA SON MMA JJA SON DJF

  10. TTscn • Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average • Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048 Large Small Error K P - P + DJF MMA JJA SON MMA JJA SON DJF

  11. 99.9 99.5 99.0 97.5 95.0 90.0 90.0 95.0 97.5 99.0 99.5 99.9 TTscn: WKLCL(-), JJA • L • Internal variability % • Rejection level for H0 • S • L • signal • L • S • S • L

  12. Future work • Add an intermediate domain; • Repeat the study for singleton perturbations of the threshold relative humidity for the onset of precipitation; • Study synchronous perturbations of the two parameters; • (Non)linearity of the model response to multiple perturbations and domain size. Alexandru et al. (2007)

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