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Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes

Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes. Scope (1/2). Impact of the amendments to the guidelines on evacuation and abandonment on the industry Regulations concerning evacuation of passenger ships Recent amendments to SOLAS regulation The High Speed Craft Code

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Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes

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  1. Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes

  2. Scope (1/2) • Impact of the amendments to the guidelines on evacuation and abandonment on the industry • Regulations concerning evacuation of passenger ships • Recent amendments to SOLAS regulation • The High Speed Craft Code • SOLAS regulation II-2/28 1.3

  3. Scope (2/2) • IMO Guidelines for evacuation analyses of Ro-Ro and other passenger vessels • Methodology for evacuation analyses at an early stage of design • Performance standards for evacuation time and procedure • Comparison simplified and advanced evacuation analysis

  4. Titanic and SOLAS www.imo.org

  5. Table of Contents Preliminaries Part IThe guidelines for evacuation analysis Part IIComparison between simplified and advanced analysis Part IIISafe Area, Safe Return to Port

  6. Preliminaries www.traffgo-ht.com Slides for download Printed Information available here About myself and TraffGo

  7. Part I Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis

  8. SOLAS, HSC, and MSC/Circ. • SOLAS II-2/28.1 evacuation analysis • High Speed Craft Code 2000 sec. 4.8.2 • MSC/Circ. 1033 for Ro-Ro and Pax andMSC/Circ. 1166 for HSC • Two methods: simplified (flow calculations) and advanced (computer simulations)

  9. IMO (1/3) • SOLAS • STCW • Load lines • COLREGS • SUA

  10. IMO (2/3) www.imo.org

  11. IMO (3/3) • Bulk Liquids and Gases (BLG) • Carriage of Dangerous Goods, Solid Cargoes and Containers(DSC) • Fire Protection (FP) • Radio-communications and Search and Rescue (COMSAR) • Safety of Navigation (NAV) • Ship Design and Equipment (DE) • Stability and Load Lines and Fishing Vessels Safety (SLF) • Standards of Training and Watchkeeping (STW) • Flag State Implementation (FSI)

  12. Overall Evacuation Time Several components Detection – Decision – Alarm – Reaction – Assembly – Embarkation – Launching T = A + twalk+ 2/3 (E+L) + 

  13. MSC/Circ. 1033, Simplified T_evac simplified

  14. MSC/Circ. 1033 MSC/Circ. 1033, Advanced T_evac advanced

  15. Computation of T Advanced method (simulation): T = A + twalk+ 2/3 (E+L) +  =10 min (night) and =3:20 min (day) Simplified method (spreadsheet): T = A + 2.3 twalk + 2/3 (E+L)

  16. Guidelines – Further Questions • How to learn it? • How long does an analysis take? • When to use which method? • How do I know I’m right? • Is the last question important?

  17. What’s done for Buildings? • There’s also a simplified method(which was the model for the first draft MSC/Circ. 909) • Less complex environment • Otherwise many similarities • Effort • When to use which method • …

  18. Most relevant regulations SOLAS Chapter II-2Fire Protection, Detection, ExtinctionFSS Code SOLAS Chapter IIILife Saving Appliances and ArrangementsLSA Code

  19. Part II Comparison of Simplified and Advanced Method

  20. When to use which method • Simplified Method – Calculation • For small ships • If you won’t do it again • Advanced Method – Simulation • Complex scenarios • If you’re doing it repeatedly

  21. How to learn it? • Simplified Method – Calculation • Detailed knowledge of the method’s rationale • Patience and strictness • Advanced Method – Simulation • How to handle the simulation program • What model is the simulation based on (if you want)

  22. Comparison of the Efforts • Simplified Method – Calculation • Can be done with paper and pencil • Same effort for each new scenario / each repetition • Advanced Method – Simulation • You need a computer simulation • Repetition is cheap

  23. Example of Application • Example of application: RoPax ferry • Application of the simplified method • Workflow for the advanced method • Comparison of the results

  24. Optimal Conditions (evacuation trial) Increased Stress Emergency Evacuation Reality Stress, Danger, Injuries Simulation Assumptions? Evacuation Trial Simplified Analysis Trial – Simulation - Reality

  25. Ro-Pax Night Case

  26. Gang 1 Gang 2 Gang 3 Gang 1 Gang 1 Gang 2 Gang 3 Gang 2 Gang 3 Simplified Method Other Decks M Exit

  27. Simplified Method • Abstract geometry into pipe system • Create spreadsheet calculation => t =...

  28. Steps Pruning Coloring Modeling Scenarios Simulation Evaluation

  29. Original CAD Drawing Re-Formatted Drawing Simulation Evaluation Work Flow => t95%=...

  30. CAD-drawing PreprocessedCAD Grid-basedFloor-plan Simulation Evaluation Time required

  31. Comparison of Times Advanced method (simulation): T = TMovement+ 2/3 (E+L) TMovement = max(Ai + twalk, i)+  Simplified method (spreadsheet): T = A + 2.3 twalk + 2/3 (E+L)

  32. Comparison of Results Differences due to: • simplified method neglects sequence of events • 600 seconds safety margin for advanced method

  33. Current (FP 51 / MSC 83) • Safety Margin • Response Time • Counter Flow Factor • Overall Evacuation Time Goal: Tadvanced  Tsimplified

  34. +3 min simplified: tresponse twalk advanced: t /min 7 13 10 Aligning Response Times e.g. Night Case: Simplified method is favoured by 3 minutes.

  35. Response Time e.g. Night Case: Current reaction span is too big. response time variance = 0 min (=simplified) response time variance = 1,5 min response time variance = 3 min (advanced: 6 min)

  36. Refining Definitions • Significant Congestion • Reduced Escape Route Availability • Simplify Tables (e.g. Demographic Parameters) • Counterflow • Passenger & Crew Distribution

  37. Additional Test Case • Simple Geometry • Show how simulation parameters influence result (sensitivity analysis) • Make results publicly available

  38. Scaling the Number of Persons Day Case: • Distribution according to FSS code  there would be more persons in the analysis than the ship is certified to carry • Problem is solved by scaling the numbers • This is not in the spirit of the FSS code Example…

  39. Refining the Guidelines Capacity of the vessel: 3000 The scaled numbers are smaller than the numbers derived from the FSS code. But what happens during lunch time?

  40. Part III Large Passenger Ships Safe AreaSafe Return to Port

  41. Developments What will the future look like? • Larger Ships • How to get back passengers back to shore

  42. Five Pillars • Prevention • Improved Survivability • Regulatory Flexibility • Operations in areas remote from SAR facilities • Health Safety and Medical Care

  43. Passenger Ships (1/4) • alternative designs and arrangements; • safe areas and the essential systems to be maintained while a ship proceeds to port after a casualty, which will require redundancy of propulsion and other essential systems; • on-board safety centres, from where safety systems can be controlled, operated and monitored;

  44. Passenger Ships (2/4) • fixed fire detection and alarm systems, including requirements for fire detectors and manually operated call points to be capable of being remotely and individually identified; • fire prevention, including amendments aimed at enhancing the fire safety of atriums, the means of escape in case of fire and ventilation systems; and

  45. Passenger Ships (3/4) • time for orderly evacuation and abandonment, including requirements for the essential systems that must remain operational in case any one main vertical zone is unserviceable due to fire three hours

  46. Passenger Ships (4/4) • MSC 82 • December 2006 • Will enter into force on 1 July 2010

  47. Larger Ships Genesis: 5400 passengers 360 metres (1,181 feet) in length and 47 metres across

  48. Impact on the industry • “The ship is its own best lifeboat.” • Safe Area Concept • Safe Return to Port • Crew Training • Medical and Health Care

  49. R & D • Projects like “Fire Exit” determination of response time • Crew training • Simulation • Directional Sound

  50. Identification of Roles What would you do if you were • A wheelchair user • A child • A parent • A crew-member • The master of the ship

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