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Jean-Yves Garnier Mieke Reece International Energy Agency

The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening international co-operation on statistics. Jean-Yves Garnier Mieke Reece International Energy Agency. Evolution of oil prices ($/ bl ). Unusual volatility in oil prices…. Blame on statistics?.

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Jean-Yves Garnier Mieke Reece International Energy Agency

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  1. The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening international co-operation on statistics Jean-Yves Garnier Mieke Reece International Energy Agency

  2. Evolution of oil prices ($/bl) Unusual volatility in oil prices… Blame on statistics?

  3. Political Call + Technical Answer = Basis Technical Heads of Statistics in Paris • There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology • Organisation can solve some of the problems • Involvement of countries is essential Political Paris13-14 Nov. 2000 Ministers at the 7th IEF Meeting Riyadh17-19 Nov. 2000 “Co-operation among relevant international organisations, as well as the participating countries, in improving and timely accessing to energy data is important for market assessment and transparency.” Bangkok2-3 April 2001 Decision taken to launch a 6-month exercise

  4. A Simple Format (42 data points) Month -1 and Month -2 Choice of units left to organisations Simple Definitions JODI started first as a 6-month exercise (JODE) Country: Month: Unit:

  5. Country A2 Country A1 Country A3 Country F1 Country F2 Country B1 Country E2 Country B2 Country B3 Country E1 Country D3 Country D1 Country C2 Country D2 Country C1 The initial data collection and co-ordination mechanism Rolling co-ordination through mails, calls, meetings

  6. 52 participating countries within 6 months,90 one year later… Ryadh 2011 RomeMay 08 DohaMay 06 CancunMar 10 RiyadhNov 06 QuitoJune 09 BogotaJuly 10 ParisOct 08 ViennaSep 06 RiyadhNov 05 ParisNov 07 ViennaMar 09 Luxem. June 08 N York May 06 ParisDec 10 BaliOct 04 Luxem.Jan 06 ParisNov 05 ParisJul 05 CairoOct 03 Amst.May 04 RiyadhJan 05 ViennaJun 04 OsakaSep 02 ParisDec 03 MexicoMay 02 ViennaJan 03 RiyadhNov. 01 ParisJuly 02 International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings Amst.May 04 BangkokApr 01 ViennaApr 02 RiyadhNov 00 Luxem.Jan 02 ViennaOct 01 MadridJuly 00 MexicoMay 02 ViennaMay 01 ParisDec 03 ParisNov 00

  7. Country A2 Country A1 Country A3 Country F1 Country F2 Country B1 Country E2 Country B2 Country B3 Country E1 Country D3 Country D1 Country C2 Country D2 Country C1 The need for a more structured co-ordination JODI Database The 6 organisations ask the IEF Secretariat to coordinate the initiative

  8. The JODI databaseFreely available and updated every month Colored cells give an indication of data quality

  9. The importance of the political support: On 19 November 2005, King Abdullah launched the JODI Database in front of 70 Ministers

  10. A triple development Joint Data Initiative Oil Organisations: APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD, Organisations (GECF for gas)

  11. The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening international co-operation on statistics Jean-Yves Garnier Mieke Reece International Energy Agency

  12. Extension of the initial questionnaire (from 42 to 128 data points) to capture a full oil balance The initial template The extended template NGL Naphtha Product transfers Statistical Difference

  13. Launch of a JODI Gas Initiative OPEC decided not to participate in JODI Gas GECF to collect gas data from its member countries 1st JODI Gas conference in Moscow in October 2010 Only 24 data points (one product)

  14. One word on JODI Capacity • Request from the IEF Ministerial Meeting in Cancun (May 2010) • A draft spreadsheet questionnaire has been prepared • The content, the format and the definitions are still under discussion between Partner Organisations

  15. Small things which make a big difference

  16. The Smiley Faces…

  17. www.jodidata.org A user friendly web site

  18. A Manual for both data providers and users

  19. 3rd Training for MENA countries 23-26 October 2007 in Algiers Algiers A world wide JODI training programme 2009 Programme of Training October 2009, hosted by Turkey CaspianSea 4th JODI Training ------ 2008 ------ IEFS APEC IEA OPEC IMF APEC++ Caracas Bogota 1st JODI Training ------ 14-19/08/06 ------ OLADE IEFS IEA OPEC UNSD IMF 2nd JODI Training ------ 29/01-2/02/07 ------ IEFS Eurostat IEA OPEC IMF 2010 Programme of Training July, hosted by Columbia Johannesburg 2009 Programme of Training December 2009 Internship also available

  20. A few words to conclude Improving transparency does not happen overnight and all parties need to co-operate Developing the JODI initiative went much beyond data collecting: cooperation between organisations, industry-countries-organisations, raising the profile of statistics and statisticians, harmonisation, etc. A few key words: commitment, compromise, hard work, expertise, political support, a need for driving force There are still a few major issues: a few countries do not report stocks data for confidentiality reasons, reliability in some key flows and products, etc. Has JODI reduced the oil price volatility? Difficult to answer until full transparency is achieved but one thing is sure, the database is widely used and analysts no longer put the blame on statistics and statisticians… Thank you

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