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Population, Economy and Society. Age and Sex Structure. Age and Sex Structure. The age and sex structure of a population has many important implications for that population! For example this structure: Is the basic determinant of the nation’s labor supply
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Population, Economy and Society Age and Sex Structure
Age and Sex Structure • The age and sex structure of a population has many important implications for that population! • For example this structure: • Is the basic determinant of the nation’s labor supply • Influences requirements for basic goods and services • Influences school attendance • Influences economic activity • And most fundamentally, it influences a society’s basic reproductive capacity
Age and Sex Structure • Now recall our discussion of the basic measures of demographic processes! • The CBR and the CDR are highly sensitive to the age/sex composition of a population! • The age/sex structure or composition of a population at any time is the result of past trends in: • Fertility • Mortality • Migration
Age and Sex Structure • In turn, it influences the current levels of crude vital rates and the rate of population growth since births, deaths and migration occur with unequal frequency at different ages! • OK…We want to explore the following: • The current age and sex patterns in different regions of the world • The factors determining age and sex structure • The effects of age and sex structures on the demographic processes • Some of the social and economic implications of a population’s age and sex structure
Age and Sex Structure • Sex Structure • Age/sex structure is usually described as a series of “sex ratios”. • Most commonly this is the “masculinity” ratio as it is computed as the number of males per 100 females. • The sex ration at birth in the US is ~105/100 or 105 male births per 100 female births. • Why are more males born?
Age and Sex Structure • Since ASMR’s are generally higher for males at every age these ratios tend to gradually decline with age and then fall below the 100 level! • The age at which this happens varies. • Beyond this age the number of females begins to exceed the number of males! • This can be quite exaggerated at the advanced ages! • We will see later that this associated with a process called the “feminization of old age”
Age and Sex Structure • Age Structure • Although chronological age is an unambiguous concept, census reports on age are subject to a number of errors: • Deliberate misstatement • “Preferred digits” • Exaggeration of age at older ages • Carelessness in reporting • Ignorance of correct age
The Dependency Ratio Pop 0-14 + Pop 65+ DR = ------------------------------- X 100 Pop 15-64
Dependency RatiosCirca 2000 • World 73.5 L. America 85.7 • MDC’s 58.8 N. America 67.2 • LDC’s 81.3 Europe 55.9 • Africa 86.2 Oceania 66.9 • E. Asia 69.4 • S. Asia 85.0
Percent below age 15 and Over 65 • MDC’s = 19% 15% • LDC’s = 34% 5% • Mid Africa = 47% 3% • South Asia = 37% 5% • L. America = 33% 6% • Europe = 18% 15% • N. America = 21% 13%
Reading a Population Pyramid Sex Historical events Cohort/ generation Age/Year of Birth Trends Population Size
Tracking the Baby Boom GenerationClick the button below to see changes in the US population from 1950 - 2050:
Age and Sex Structure • Factors determining age/sex structure • Migration • Young males are most likely to migrate • Impact on the US • In the long term • In the short term • In small geographic areas Internationally? Labor surplus and deficit countries!
Age and Sex Structure • Mortality • Mortality varies with age thus the pyramidal shape of the population pyramid • Higher rates for males affect it • Circumstances such as war can also affect it • In general changes in mortality don’t affect the age/sex structure as much as migration or changes in fertility! • Fertility • Of critical importance to the age/sex structure • Short term changes • Long term changes
Age and Sex Structure • The effects of age and sex structures on the demographic processes! • There is a sort of “feedback” effect here! • Captured in the notion of “Population Momentum” • The population processes determine the age/sex structure of a population and that age/sex structure drives the population processes! • The “Rectangularization” of the pyramid!
Age and Sex Structure • Consequences of changes in the age and sex structure! • Education • In the MDC’s • In the LDC’s • The Economy • In the MDC’s • In the LDC’s
Age and Sex Structure • Politics and Political Behavior • In the MDC’s • In the LDC’s • Crime • Marriage Markets
Stable and Stationary Populations • A Stable population • The age structure remains unchanged • Fertility and mortality rates have remained unchanged for some time • There is no migration • Can be growth • A Stationary population • Is stable • Has achieved ZPG
Population Projections • “It is easy to predict everything except the future” (Nathan Keyfitz) (Taken from an old Chinese proverb) • Cautions about population projections! • It can be very difficult to forecast with accuracy • The longer the time period the greater the risk • Changes in fertility are generally the most problematic • Especially difficult in the LDC’s because of the lack of data
Population Projections • OK…So what are the current projections? • We often rely on the UN’s Population Division for our projections! (Our Census Bureau also does them) • They usually take the form of three “scenarios” which are based on assumptions about fertility and mortality (Remember that we said that fertility is the most critical element and remember that if we are talking about the world we don’t have to worry about migration but if we are talking about the US we do!)
Some population Projections for the World • Projections for the world: • Low 7.3 billion • Medium 8.9 billion • High 10.7 billion • The world is currently growing at ~1.3% per year or a doubling time of 53 years!
Zero Population GrowthZPG • What are the consequences of achieving it now versus later? • Social? • Political? • Economic? • Either way there will be shifts in the age/sex structure that will necessitate adjustments in society! • ZPG in the world?
