BRICS Cooperation and Asia’s Diverse Development

1. BRICS Cooperation and Asia’s Diverse Development FAN YOMGMING Fudan University 2013.5.25

2. Main Content • The Vitality of BRICS Cooperation • BRICS & the Diverse Development of Asia • Three key factors of states' international influence: • (1) Stability of the internal structure • (2)Relations with current international system, or traditional great powers: cooperation or conflict • (3) Effective regional governance

3. The Vitality of BRICS Cooperation • BRICS not only share common characteristics and common interests,they may also speak out with one voice and take action together. • They are strengthening institutionalized cooperation and pragmatic implementation • They have established effective dialogue mechanisms with the international system and traditional powers

4. Institutionalized Cooperation • Intra-BRICS Track 1 and Track 2 cooperation: • Government-oriented cooperative framework: Leadership summits, minister- and secretary-level work group meetings • Civil society and private sector participation: • Councils of think tanks, Commerce and industry comprise civil society participation • Coordination at the international level: • Participation in United Nations, G20, APEC, etc. • High-level dialogues

5. Pragmatic Cooperation Between BRICS States • Recent progress on common action: • BRICS Bank, foreign exchange reserve pool and currency swap arrangement, etc. • Trade and investment: • Annual BRICS trade growth rate of 28%, a 15-fold increase over 10 years; in 2011, over $320 billion in total trade; expected to reach $500 billion by 2025. • Cooperation between small- and medium-sized enterprizes and the high-tech industry

6. BRICS Goals for Global Governance • Main objectives: • (1) Establish a more democratic and fair multipolar international order • (2) Reform the international financial system; build a more stable, predictable, and diverse international monetary system • (3) Push the multilateral trade system towards win-win cooperation between developed and developing countries • (4) Actively resolve global issues such as climate change, energy, and environment through dialogue and in a pragmatic, step-by-step manner

7. BRICS and the Existing International System • As the global financial crisis clearly shows, existing international institutions are not enough. Many issues cannot be resolved without the participation of emerging countries: IMF reforms, the Copenhagen Climate Conference, etc. • Cooperative relations between BRICS and existing powersare complementary; all BRICS states have close political and economic ties with developed nations. • Multiple consultation mechanisms should coexist in the international society. BRICS cooperation is not the rise of a small group, nor a replacement of one power by another, but the integration of emerging nations and existing powers.

8. Li Keqiang: China will uphold the international system • On May 20, 2013, Premier Li Keqiang published an article in India’s The Hindu and DainikJagran newspapers entitled “A Handshake Across the Himalayas” • “China is a beneficiary and a defender of the existing international order and system and stands ready to work with India and other countries to advance reform of the system. China will undertake international obligations commensurate with its national strength. We stand ready to embrace the world with a more open mind and hope that the world will view China with a calm frame of mind.”

9. Long-term Projections • Differences in political structure, level of economic development, religion and culture, and sovereignty disputes exist, but common long-term interests will be decisive. • The economic weight of BRICS will continue to rise, from 14.3% in 2008 to an estimated 50% in 2050. • BRICS will be many times larger than the U.S. and developed countries combined in terms of population, territory, resources and market size. The Middle class in China and India alone will be on par with the combined population of the G7. • Economic growth will nottemporarily decline, or even stop, due to macroeconomic fluctuations.

10. BRICS and Asia’s Diverse Development • Effective regional governance of great powers refers to the powers' using their economic and political strength to hold together regional peace, stability, and economic prosperity. With the rise of regional cooperation, effective regional governance dependsfirst and foremost on the powers’ attitudes and contributions.

11. BRICS: Regional Development • The notion of BRICS has never been about a single country. Brazil and Latin America, South Africa and Southern Africa, Russia and the former Soviet Union, along with Central Asia, Eastern Europe and even Central Europe are all inseparable. India and China have always been Asian nations. The BRICS are key factors for political-economic development in their respective regions. • Leaders of the African Union and more than ten African states were invited to the 2013 Summit to discuss infrastructure development. BRICS trade and direct investment to Africa will increase threefold in the next five years.

12. BRICS and Asia’s Diverse Development • Global level: • BRICS provide conceptual leadership • Regional level: • RCEP - China and India working together to with TPP • APEC - From a forum to platform for cooperation: China and Russia leading cuts on tariff duties for environmental goods • Sub-regional level: • Russia‘s Far East Development、 • “Asian Economic Corridor ” • Premier Li Keqiang and Indian Prime Minister Singh proposed building the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Forum for Regional Cooperation，to connect the two major economies in Asia

13. Thank you.