Regional and local industry comparative employment generation performance of Wellington Industries before and after th

1. Regional and local industry comparative employment generation performance of Wellington Industries before and after the global financial crisis James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Backbencher, Wellington 24th-September 2013

2. How well are Wellington industries doing in generating jobs? • strengths and weaknesses of local industries as employers through recent unstable economic times • How does this compare with longer term trends? • How did the global financial crisis affect jobs relative to NZ as a whole? • How is the region doing coming out of the crisis?

3. Contributors to the change in local jobs for any period - by industry

4. How have local industries performed in growing local jobs? • Nation = New Zealand (or country grouping e.g Australia & NZ?) • Region = the Wellington “labour market catchment” • Locality –2013 local government wards (approximated by area units) • industry shift share analysis trend decomposition methodology (refer methods for details ..)

5. Industry shift share analysis components • National employment trend • Industry composition effect – • Industry difference from overall trend • “Regional” industry competitive effect • “Local” industry competitive effect

6. Wellington Labour Market Catchment Years 2000 to 2012 Source : Stats NZ Business Demographic Survey

7. Annual % change in Wellington Jobs Source : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

8. Annual % change in NZ vs Wellington Jobs Source : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

9. Add in Industry Mix effectSource : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

10. Overlay “regional” competitive effectSource : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

11. Urban Wellington - labour market catchment jobsSNZ Business Demographic Survey

12. Industry Shift Share Analysis - Components of Wellington Employment Change (% per annum) Source : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

13. “Regional” Industry Competitive Effect Wellington Labour Market Catchment vs Greater Auckland Years 2000 to 2012 Source : Stats NZ Business Demographic Survey

14. Wellington vs Auckland? - “Regional” competitive effect

15. … vs National Employment Growth Rates

16. Industry Case Studies Wellington “Regional” Industry Trends 2000-2012 Source : Stats NZ Business Demographic Survey

17. Industry Shift Share Analysis - Components of Wellington Employment Change (% per annum) Source : SNZ Business Demographic Survey

18. Public Administration Case Study

19. Beverage & Tobacco Product Manufacturing Case Study

20. Motion Picture and Sound Recording Activities

21. Artistic Activities

22. Other Professional Scientific and Technical Services

23. Computer System Design and Related Services

24. Subregionalresults .. What role have different parts of the region made to local jobs and local industry competitive performance? 2013 Wards (“communities” a bit of a stretch and too much detail for today)

25. Ward level overall trends.. • Jobs by ward 2001, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 • Change in Jobs by ward 2001-2006, 2006-2008, 2008-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012 • Annual % Change in Jobs by ward 2001-2006, 2006-2008, 2008-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012

26. Ward level local competitive effects .. • Net industry competitive effect by ward 2001-2006, 2006-2008, 2008-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012 • Net industry competitive effect rate (% per annum) by ward 2001-2006, 2006-2008, 2008-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012

27. Sub regional comments .. • The central hub of the Wellington labour market catchment is much more dominant than Greater Auckland or Greater Christchurch • Which industries are associated with the strengths and weaknesses of specific employment hubs around the region?

28. Towards understanding Wellington industries employment performance … and applying that knowledge • What are our key industry sectors? • What growth sectors are we well positioned in? • How does the region’s performance in key sectors compare to other regions? • How do different parts of the region perform? • Selected industry case studies to highlight issues …

29. Methodology

30. Intra Regional Industry Shift Share Analysis Method

31. Intra Regional Level Shift Share Analysis • Intra Regional Shift-Share Analysis is adapted from Dunn (1960) • = • ) • Where E represents employment • time is t, industry is i and region is j • NE represents National Employment Change Effect, • IM represents the Industry Mix Effect • The competitive effect CE is decomposed into two elements • RCE represents the “Regional” Competitive Effect. • LCE represents the “Local Authority” Competitive Effect.

32. Put simply • National employment effect – simply the number of local jobs implied by the rate of change in jobs nationally • Industry mix effect – difference between the rate of change of jobs in any industry and the overall rate of change in jobs nationally • “Regional” industry competitive effect – the different between the rate of change in jobs in each industry for each region and the rate of change in jobs in that industry for NZ as a whole • “Local” competitive effect – the difference between the actual rate of change in jobs for an industry in a subregional area and the rate of change of jobs in that industry for its “region”

33. Local Competitive Effect (CE)? • difference between actual change and what would have been expected due to national employment trend and that due to industry mix.. • This effect could be a result of • investment by government or the private sector favouring particular industries in a region (including infrastructure roads etc.) • Better economic performance /productivity of particular industries in a given region compared with others