Gulf Wars: causes and consequences

1. Gulf Wars: causes and consequences

2. GULF WARS 1. September 1980-August 1988 Iraq vs. Iran 2. August 1990- March 1991 Iraq vs. Kuwait 3. March – April 2003 Iraq vs. US Coalition

3. Causes • Nature of the state and regime • Domestic factors and deep sense of insecurity perceived threat to regime • Geo-political/geo-strategic considerations • Historical and ideological factors • Theory rich analysis possible: “balance of power”, “misperceptions” and “ideological” • Palmerston’s “states have no friends but interests” (Donald Rumsfeld meets Saddam in August 1983 as special envoy to the Middle East to invade Iraq two decades later as Secretary of Defense overthrow Saddam and see his execution.)

4. Iran-Iraqi War: ideological perspective • Iraq’s pan-Arab and leadership ambitions especially after Egypt’s expulsion from the Arab Leaque • Change of regime in Iran Shah’s “status quo” approach checking-balancing Iraq replaced by “export of revolution” and “overthrow” of Arab regimes • Domestic implications for Iraq with Shi’a majority, uprisings. Generates insecurity but also opens space for leadership claims against a revisionist power

5. Historical Perspective • 14 centuries of Sunni-Shi’a rivalry over succession going back to the period after the death of the Prophet 632 • 1st Caliph Abu Bakr challenged by Prophet’s son in law Ali assasinated and his son Hussein killed in battle of Kerbela in 680 • Rivalry reflected in demographics of the region 60 % in Iraq, 74 % in Bahrain and 25 % Kuwait • Ottoman-Persian rivalries settled by Kasr-i Sirin in 1639 but border leaves Shi’a shrines in Iraq and Arab Shi’a in Iran

6. Geo-political, geo-strategic perspectives • Border dispute over Shat-ul Arab waterway • Strategically important in terms of access to the sea otherwise Iraq land locked • Iran’s major refinery (Abadan) on the waterway and Gulf coast mountainous • Efforts to regulate: • 1913 Constantinople Agreement (Iranian shore line border) • 1937 re-negotiated on Thalweg principle to Abadan • 1975 Algiers Agreement Thalweg extended to full length of waterway

7. Geo-political, geo-strategic perspectives (cont.) • Redrawing of border ties up with Saddam’s ideological and leadership aspirations: re-deem Arab property, stregthen pan-Arab credentials • Cold War calculations: Soviet and US involvement in Afghanistan

9. Immediate causes • 28 September 1980 • Get Iran to recognize legitimate and sovereign rights over land and water • Force Iran to stop interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs • Return UAE islands

10. war strategy • Iran a chaldron of chaos and turmoil, officers decimated • Mount a “blitzkrieg” and “Arab rebellion in Khuzistan” • Provoke “ripple effects” leading to collapse of regime

11. Strategy fails and instead long stalemate • Expected “rebellion” and “collapse of regime” does not occur • Bad intelligence • “group think” • Bureaucratic and Organizational process

12. Evolution of War • 1982 Iran starts recovering territory and even occupy Iraqi territory and block Iraqı access to the sea • 1984 War of the tankers vs. Iranian mining of the Gulf • 1987 Kurdish rebellion • Iraq escaltes uses missiles, chemical weapons • July 1988 downing of Iranian airliner and Iranian acceptance of UNSC Resolution 598 “more deadly than poison” (Khomeini)

13. Consequences • 200 billion USD direct cost • 1,000 billion in indirect costs • 1 million causalties 60 % Iranian • 1978 20 bn barrels a day from the Gulf • 1985 6,4 bn barrels a day • Regimes insecurity in Iraq continues • Iran regime consolidated and more pragmatic • Regional threat reduced

14. Invasion of Kuwait: causes • Domestic political reasons – failure to delivery the rewards of “victory” with low oil prices, economic difficulties and debts. “Quick fix and show an enemy” • Ideological grounds since 1958 pan-Arabist argument that Kuwait part of Iraq, annexed as 19th province • Prop-up pan-Arab credentials • Strategic reasons – access to the sea

15. International response I • Very swift and different than in the case of Iran • Blatant violation of international law (territorial acquistion) • Strategic reasons oil/influence • End of the Cold War difficult to play one superpower against the other

16. International response II • US successful mobilization of international support and UNSC • Series of resolutions • Condemnation and economic, financial and other sanctions (Resolutions 660, 661, 662, 665 etc...) • Threat of use of force, Res. 678 29 November “withdraw unconditionally by 15 January” or “use all necessary means”

17. International response III • 17 January 1991 Desert Storm • 28 February Ceasefire • 2 March Res. 686 suspending all offensive • Res. 687 conditions for lifting sanctions • Renounce claims over Kuwait • Payment of war reparations • Surrender all weapons of mass destruction to UNSCOM • Res. 688 April 1991 creates “safe haven” and Operation Provide Comfort

18. US Invasion of Iraq: Run up • Absence of cooperation with UNSCOM • Impact of 9/11 and WMD threat perceptions • Neo-cons and “pre-emptive strike” of Bush Doctrine and “global war on terrorism” • Afghanistan Operation against the Taliban October 2001 • Allegations about Saddam’s Al-Qaida links and issue of WMD • Huge opposition rallies in the West

19. US Invasion of Iraq: the WMD dimension • UNSC Res. 1441, Nov. 2002 calls on Saddam to comply with disarmament (check Colin Powell speech at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovHrd-Q3Av0&feature=related&noredirect=1) • UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, inspector Hans Blix • No stockpiles of WMD found before March 2003 • Bush, Blair and Anzar argue that imminent threat of WMD based on “intelligence” reports and Blair argues that UNSC 678 provided legal basis for intervention. • Subsequently Iraq Survey Group in Oct. 2004 concludes no weapons in Iraq.

20. US Invasion of Iraq: war and regime change • March 2003 invasion starts • May 2003 Bush announces “mission accomplished” • UNSC Res 1483 ends sanctions on Iraq • December 2003 Saddam captured • Aug. 2003 UNSC Res. 1500 Coalition Provisional Authority and June 2004 Interim Government Council formed to pave way to constitution and elections. • Nov. 2003 Bush speech at NED “foster democracy and refom in Arab and Muslim world” • June 2004 UNSC Res. 1546 transfer of sovereignty to Interim government • June 2004 G8 summit and BMENA launched

21. US Invasion of Iraq: regime change • Jan. 2005 Elections for Iraqi National Assembly and May 2005 transitional government led by al-Jafari formed • Constitution drafted and refrendum held Oct. 2005 79 % approval rate • Dec. 2005 new elections government led by al-Maliki formed • Jan. 2010 second elections government led by al-Maliki only formed in November. • Dec. 2011 US military withdrawal from Iraq • http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-marks-the-end-of-american-supremacy/2011/12/12/gIQAStpTyO_story.html

22. US Invasion of Iraq: costs • Geo-political map changes advantaging Iran and talk of the rise of “Shia crescent” • Bloody resistance led by Zarkawi (captured in 2006), connected to Osama bin-Laden and by Shia Mahdi militia led by Muqtada al-Sadri (disbanded in Aug. 2005) • Sunni Awakenning to counter al-Qaida terror start in 2005. • By the time relative calm achieved US 4430 casualties, 33,000 wounded, 600,000 civilian casualties (UN report Sep. 2006), 2,2 million internally displaced, 2.1 million refugees. • Cost to US: 900 bn USD until Oct. 2010