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Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI

Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI. Tony Barnston Dave DeWitt Lisa Goddard Donna Lee Mike Tippett Shuhua Li. Real-Time Coupled Models. Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members) Historical forecasts back to 1982

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Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI

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  1. Recent S-I Forecast Developments at IRI Tony Barnston Dave DeWitt Lisa Goddard Donna Lee Mike Tippett Shuhua Li

  2. Real-Time Coupled Models Running 3 coupled models in real-time with modest ensemble size (12 members) Historical forecasts back to 1982 ECHAM4.5- Directly Coupled (ECHAM-DC2)* ECHAM4.5- Anomaly Coupled (ECHAM-AC1) ECHAM4.5-GML (forced by CFS forecast in central and eastern Pacific. Thermodynamic ocean elsewhere) Data is available in IRI Data Library * = contributed to CHFP. Others could be contributed as well.

  3. 1-Tier Experimental Multi-Model Ensemble Models: ECHAM-DC2 ECHAM-AC1 ECHAM-GML NCEP-CFS Hindcasts from 1982 to present. Simple pooling MME. Found to be (slightly) superior to Bayesian combination. But still trying to make an objective combination scheme. Forecasts are available on the web. Next step is to combine with 1-tier forecasts.

  4. Recent 1-Tier MME Forecast

  5. Current 2-Tier MME activities • Pattern-based correction of model output. • Correct systematic errors. • Calibration based on historical forecasts. • Observed SST vs. forecast SST. • Information beyond terciles • Climatology and forecast probability density functions. • New methods for weighting models.

  6. NDJ temperature variability patterns (EOFs) Model Obs. MOS 1 2

  7. correlation Model MOS

  8. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.000 (0.008) T 0.005 (0.015) likelihood: G 0.001 (0.004) T 0.004 (0.008) Heidke: G 0.006 (0.042) T 0.021 (0.068) GROC: G 0.537 (0.539) T 0.572 (0.565) AMJ 2010 precip tercile categ AMJ 2010 precip probab forecast from mid-Mar

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