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DSL Succession Wildfire Urban growth Sea level rise Climate effect on wildfire:

SERAP Succession Wildfire Urban growth Sea level rise (DSL) Climate effect on wildfire (Coastal Plain): A1FI, B1 Recent fire suppression. DSL Succession Wildfire Urban growth Sea level rise Climate effect on wildfire: A2, A1B, B1.

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DSL Succession Wildfire Urban growth Sea level rise Climate effect on wildfire:

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  1. SERAP • Succession • Wildfire • Urban growth • Sea level rise (DSL) • Climate effect on wildfire (Coastal Plain): • A1FI, B1 • Recent fire suppression • DSL • Succession • Wildfire • Urban growth • Sea level rise • Climate effect on wildfire: • A2, A1B, B1

  2. Output data characteristics • Decadal data layers through 2100 • Polygons (average size ~10 hectares), converted to 30 m raster • Each polygon labeled with land cover type, successional stage and structure • Available from NCSU Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center • DSL: http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/dsl/downloads.html • SERAP: Coming Soon!Contact jennifer_costanza@ncsu.edu

  3. Landscape ChangeCharleston, SC Lake Moultrie 2001 +10 years +20 years +30 years +40 years +50 years Incorporates:disturbance,succession urban growth (SLEUTH), sea level rise (SLAMM) +60 years +70 years +80 years Charleston +90 years +100 years

  4. Using the data • Land cover types represent mapped polygon characteristics • Distributions of age and canopy structure across region match FIA data • Best for summaries across regions or groups of counties Example: Projected longleaf pine composition - 2100

  5. Caveats of modeling approach • Model states are defined ahead of time, no surprises in characteristics of states, just their composition across landscape • In vegetation dynamics models, effects of climate change are indirect: • Changes to wildfire regime • Define a new vegetation state based on info from other models or data • Locations of vegetation polygons static through time

  6. Strengths of data and approach • Integrates urban growth, sea level rise, vegetation dynamics • Explore and compare alternative scenarios of landscape change • Summarize changes across regions • Use as a communication tool to visualize results • Vegetation dynamics models used by DoD (Eglin AFB) and VA Tech, US Forest Service, TNC • Good base layer, many more scenarios possible!

  7. SALCC Introduction Next steps and how the SALCC will use this product

  8. Questions/Comments Questions or comments from presentation about Jen’s presentation? Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?

  9. Next SALCC Third Thursday Web Forum • Thursday, November 15 – 10:00am EST • Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and Climate Science Centers: An Evolving Relationship • Jerry McMahon (Southeast Climate Science Center) & Rua Mordecai (South Atlantic LCC)

  10. Contacts Ken McDermond – ken_mcdermond@fws.gov Rua Mordecai – rua@southatlanticlcc.org Janet Cakir – janet_cakir@nps.gov Amy Keister – amy_keister@fws.gov Laurie Rounds – laurie.rounds@noaa.gov Ginger Deason – ginger@southatlanticlcc.org Jen Costanza –jkcostan@ncsu.edu

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