Gut Feelings in the Desert: Antoine De St. Exupery and the Dragon Fl y

1. Gut Feelings in the Desert:Antoine De St. Exupery and the Dragon Fly I shaved carefully in a cracked mirror. From time to time I went to the door and looked at the naked sand. … I was thoughtful. … For the moment everything was all right. But I heard something sizzling. It was a dragonfly knocking against the lamp. Why it was I cannot say, but I felt a twinge in my heart. I went outdoors and looked round. The air was pure. … Over the desert reigned a vast silence as of a house in order. But here were a green butterfly and two dragonflies knocking against my lamp. Again I felt a dull ache which might as easily have been joy as fear, but came up from the depths of me.

2. St. Exupery in the Desert, continued Something was calling to me from a great distance. Was it instinct? Once again I went out. The wind had died down completely. The air was still cool. But I had received a warning. I guessed, I believed I could guess, what I was expecting. I climbed a dune and sat down face to the east. If I was right, the thing would not be long in coming. What were they after here, those dragonflies, hundreds of miles from their oases inland?

3. St. Exupery in the Desert Wreckage thrown up upon the beach bears witness to a storm at sea. Even so did these insects declare to me that a sand storm was on the way, a storm out of the east that had blown them out of their oases. Solemnly, for it was fraught with danger, the east wind rose. … But that was not what excited. What filled me with a barbaric joy was …that I had been able to read the anger of the desert in the beating wings of a dragonfly. St. Exupery, A. (1939). Wind, sand, and stars.

4. EVOLUTION OF PROBLEM STATEMENT I. I’m about to fly across the Sahara, I’ve done it a 100 times, but something is bugging me. What? 2. Those insects bumping against my lamp are bothering me. How come? 3. Wait a second! I'm in the middle of the barren Sahara; what are a moth and a dragonfly doing out here? 4. What would it take to transport insects hundreds of miles from their native environment? Now put this into a succinct problem statement: 5. Does the presence of insects in the remote barren desert indicate the advent of a windstorm?

5. TRANSFORMING A PROBLEM STATEMENT INTO A HYPOTHESIS “The arrival of live insects within the desert interior is a precursor of high winds.” What does St. Exupery do to test this hypothesis?

6. FORMS OF HYPOTHESES "A" = Bugs "B" = Sandstorms "C" = Location aridness "D" = Windy season I. A B I. A  B II. (A X B)  C: III. AB if D: Bugs are related to sandstorms Bugs predict sandstorms Bugs & location aridness predict sandstorms Bugs predict sandstorms IF windy season has started

7. RELATION BETWEEN THEORY AND HYPOTHESES Example of Theory: Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999): People systematically differ in how they subjectively order time into past, present, and future. In other words, people can be characterized as “present oriented”, or “future oriented”.

8. Hypotheses that Derive from Time Perspective Theory Theory: People differ in time perspectives, and this shapes their behavior. General Hypothesis Future Oriented (FO) people are better at meeting time demands than are (PO). Experimental Hypotheses FO will sign up for experiments sooner than PO.

9. Science and Facilitated Communication Facilitated Communication Studies Science Hypotheses arise form emotional problem, feeling of un-ease Problem statement Hypothesis statement, presented in falsifiable form Experiment framed Prosecutor worried about veracity of FC. OD Heck want to show that FC works “… were these communications coming from the autistic children?” If FC real, then it should work when the facilitator is blind to what the child sees. Facilitator and child see same vs. diff. pics; how is performance affected?

10. Framing of Facilitated Communication Experiments Kid Sees Facilitator Sees Cup Dog Cup I II Dog III IV X X 1. Which are the criterion cells? 2. If FC is valid, what are facilitator's responses in criterion cells?

11. Science and Facilitated Communication Science FC Validation Studies Conduct objective, varied, and replicable tests Double blind study; pix naming, mesg. passing, eyes on keypad New hypothesis: FC a sham, new discrepancies become evident. Kids type w/o looking at keypad; why autistics so verbally skilled? Why so many abuse cases? New hypothesis has powerful social consequences Devastates believers; liberates kids, redeems "abusers" Serendipity (unexpected discovery) Unconscious drives overt behavior; Freud. What is "will"? D. Wegner

12. Null Hypotheses Defined: Null hyp. states that there is no relation between variables. Examples: Class size is not related to performance The sexes do not differ in aggression. Bugs don’t predict sandstorms

13. Proper and Improper Use of Null Hypothesis Proper use of null hypothesis: As a contrast, foil, to hyp. we want to confirm H1: Smaller classes  improved performance Ho: Smaller classes unrelated to performance Improper use of null hyp: As the object of research H1: Smaller classes are unrelated to performance Problems in trying to confirm null hyp: 1. Confirmation could be due to actual absence of effect OR 2. Confirmation could occur b/c study improperly done.

14. MULTIVARIABLE VS. MULTIVARIATE RESEARCH 1. Multivariable: More than one causal variable but only one outcome variable: EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects student’s test scores. 2. Multivariate: More than one causal variable and more than one outcome variable. EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects students’ school performance (test scores, discipline, attendance).

15. Univariate vs. Multivariable Research Univariate Research: One predictor variable and one outcome variable. Univariate is better designed to ask questions about whether certain things occur. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback? (i.e., Is there a feedback bias?) Multivariable Research: Two or more predictor variables and one outcome variable. Multivariable research permits investigation into underlying causes. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback, due to degree of social risk (high vs. low)? (i.e., is there a racial bias, and is it caused by perceived risk?)

16. Variables Class 6

17. Knowing Concepts, Nomenclature, and Definitions Your MD performs professionally, follows best practices YES NO Your MD Understands: "hygiene", "contaminant", "microbial" YES NO A B C D Which conditions do you find satisfactory? Why?

18. CONCEPTS, CONSTRUCTS, AND VARIABLES Concept: An abstraction formed by generalizing from particulars. Examples: Attention, Emotion, Learning, Prejudice Construct: A concept that: 1. Allows for objective observation. * Can be measured (i.e., pounds, years, tears) * Can be described in terms of explicit, replicable operations (place subject on scale, gather birth date from drivers’ license, OR * Built on other constructs that are themselves based on operations. 2. Relates theoretically to other constructs * Built upon other constructs: (empathy = perspective taking + imagination) * A building block for other constructs: (empathy  emotional intelligence) 3. Defined distinctly [Kent’s add-on] * “Trust = “believe w/o questioning” = gullibility = dependency = trust? CONCEPTS THAT ARE NOT CONSTRUCTS: Heaven, Luck, Kharma Intriguing, fascinating, provocative question: Is “hope” a concept or construct?

19. Concept or Construct? • Fitness • Heart rate • Health • Reaction time • Stress • Resilience • Concept • Construct • Concept • Construct • Concept • Concept

20. Concept to Construct to Variable Prejudice = Hostility toward minorities = Physical distance during conversation = Concept Construct Variable

21. Variables Concepts that have a range of values, such that X > 1 “Heaven” has no range, not a variable “Church attendance” has a range, is a variable Observable and measurable “Love” is not observable “Eye gazing” is observable Form building blocks of constructs “Size” is construct “Inches” is variable

22. Qualitative and Quantitative Variables Qualitative Dichotomous, polychotomous All numeric values of equal normative value Examples Gender, race, blind vs. don’t blind Ghack boy Quantitative Continuous—take on a range of values Numeric values represent more/less of attribute Examples No. pos. feedback comments, feedback ratings

23. Operationalization Steps, or “operations” taken to measure or create a variable. Measured: Variable defined in terms of how it is measured Francois: “Height, she is ze number of centimeters.” Frank: “Height is the number of inches, by crackie!” Experimental: Expt’l steps taken to create variable Confed. temperament = eye contact, voice tone, smiles/stares What are operationalizations for “stress”, for “aggression”?

24. Value of Operationalization? 1. Enforces mental rigor; forces evaluation of assumptions. 2. Provides uniformly understood meanings 3. Helps to resolve discrepancies in science.

25. OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK VARIABLES Variable Feedback Friendliness of recipient Definition No. of positive and negative comments Rating sheet responses Smiles, forward leaning, head nods, voice tone.

26. STUDY DEFINITION OF FEEDBACK NATURE OF BIAS Byalick & Bersoff, 1970 Physical contact, warmth, acceptance Positive Harber, 1998 Number of positive and negative comments on written work. Positive Massey, Scott, & Dornbusch, 1975 Match between student reports on teacher-feedback, and student’s grades. Positive Word, Zanna & Cooper, 1974 Non-verbal social cues Negative OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK Note: Diff. operational definitions can be associated with different outcomes.

27. TODAY’S CONTROVERSIAL QUESTION Should psychology concern itself ONLY with constructs? Are the following outside the realm of experimental psychology? Free will Magic Happiness Miracles Love at first sight Prayer Intuition

28. CONSITUTIVE AND OBSERVABLE VARIABLES Constitutive Observable Health Weight, blood pressure, temperature SES Income, education Intelligence Verbal skills, math skills, visual skills, social skills

29. C 1 D.O. C 3 C 2 D.O. Relation Between Operational and Constituent Variables Copy-edit comments Feedback Bias ( r > 0 ) Rating Sheet Note: D.O. = "Directly Observable"

30. Most General Hypothesis Interracial feedback is biased. General Hypothesis Feedback from whites to blacks is positively biased. Specific Hypothesis When whites provide performancefeedback for sub-standard work, their feedback will be positively biased if they believe that the feedback recipient is black rather than white. Experimental Hypothesis White undergraduatesinstructed to critiquepoorly written essays for purposes of feedback will provide more positive feedback if informed that the essay writer is black rather than white. Experiments as Expressions of Hypotheses

31. Diagramming the Experimental Sentence Construct White undergraduate students instructed to critique poorly written essays for … feedback will provide more positive feedback if informed that the writer is Black rather than White Operational Definition Students who identify themselves as White, not Hispanic, on a survey. write comments on spelling, content, etc. on the essay essays contain 5 spelling errors, 14 grammar errors, 5 content errors subjects’ copy edited comments on essays are supposedly returned to the writer no. of positive comments – no. of neg. comments subjects read “self description sheet” supposedly completed by writer that indirectly indicates race, and confirmed by post-expt. manipulation check.

32. Lending a Hand: Social Regulation of the Neural Response to Threat [Coan, J., Schaefer, H., & Davidson, R., (2006) Psych. Science, 17, 1032-1039] ...For this fMRI study, 16 married women were subjected to the threat of electric shock while holding their husband’s hand, the hand of an anonymous male experimenter, or no hand at all. Results indicated an attenuation of activation [in systems regulating threat] when women held their husband’s hand. Most strikingly, the effects of spousal hand-holding on neural threat varied as a function of marital quality ... . What’s the hypothesis? What are the constructs, the IV, the DV, the operations?

33. Attributes and Aliases of IV and DV Independent Variable (IV) Dependent Variable (DV) Effect Cause Consequent Antecedent Event that E. tries to predict Event that E. controls or selects Change in “Y” Change in “X” 

34. Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables Independent Variable Dependent Variable Race of feedback partners  Feedback bias Social context  Moral choices (NY vs. Ghakistan) NOTE: IV can be DV can be IV IV DV Group pressure  Conformity Conformity  Feedback bias

35. Active vs. Attributive Variables Active (manipulated): Variables that are manipulated by the experimenter Friendliness of the confederate Quality of essay Attributive (measured): Variables that cannot be manipulated, but are inherent properties. AKA "organismic variables." Gender of confederate Age of subject

36. Latent Variables Latent variables are variables that cannot be directly measured. Latent variables are “emergent” – they arise from the joint association of more particular, measurable variables. Latent variables are sometimes referred to as “factors” Factor analysis is method used to discover and confirm latent variables.

37. Latent Variables in Feedback Study: Essay Mechanics = ?????? ????? = Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interesting presentation, persuasive

38. Latent Variables in Feedback Study: Mechanics vs. Content Mechanics: Spelling, grammar, word choice Content: Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interesting presentation, persuasive

39. SPSS Factor Analysis Results

40. Factor Loadings of Two Factor Measure: Social Support Opinion Survey

41. Social Support Opinion Survey (Harber, et al., JASP, 38, 1463-1505)

42. Hope Scale(Snyder et al., 1991, JPSP, 60, 570-585)