1 / 42

INTRODUCTORY TALK ON RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Explore advances in meteorology in Indonesia, focusing on the tropical sea-breeze circulation, boundary layer structure, diurnal convection, modeling mesoscale weather, NWP experiments, climate variability, and climate prediction.

naranjo
Download Presentation

INTRODUCTORY TALK ON RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. INTRODUCTORY TALK ON RESEARCH ACTIVITIES From Sea-breeze To Climate Change : Seeking Advances in Meteorology in Indonesia Tri Wahyu Hadi Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) INDONESIA Email : tri@geoph.itb.ac.id

  2. OUTLINE • The Tropical Sea-Breeze Circulation • Boundary Layer Structure • The Sea-breeze Circulation over Jakarta • The Night Time Sea-Breeze over Darwin • Diurnal Convection • Modeling the Mesoscale Weather • Simulation of Cloud Convection • NWP Experiments : Near Real Time Downscaling • Model intercomparison • Climate Variability and Climate Prediction • The Monsoon Break in January • Experiments on Seasonal Prediction • Climate Change • International Research Collaboration

  3. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (1) The inspiring pilot balloon observations Sea breeze weaker land-breeze circulation Return flow (Van Bemmeln, W., Die Erforschung des tropischen Luftozeans in Niederländisch-Ost-Indien, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1913)

  4. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (2) Boundary Layer-Radar Observations in Jakarta, Indonesia and Darwin, Australia during 1990s Serpong (Jakarta) BLR Darwin BLR

  5. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (3) Diurnal Evolution of The PBL BLR and surface met. observations • Mixing layer development • Capping inversion layer • Residual layer • Weak echo layer after 1400 LT Effects of sea-breeze intrusion on the mixing layer develpment

  6. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (4) Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability Slower SB intrusion during clear day Cloud convection Identified as detached strong echo

  7. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (5) Night-time Sea-breeze over Darwin

  8. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (6) A heat low explanation for the night-time sea-breeze

  9. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (7) Sea-Breeze Climatology deeper inland, propagation speed of the front tend to be faster marked convergence Vl : averaged over 0.5-0.8 kmVu : averaged over 1.5-2.5 km Vsfc : anemometer data at 10 m different convection

  10. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (8) BLR data Sea-breeze signal in dry season and pre-monsoon period • Data of 1993,’94,’95,’96,and ’99, daily mean subtracted • Pronounced signal in July-October • Shifts in near surface wind maxima : • stonger low-level wind shear in September and October • Sea-breeze intrusion occurs earlier during September and October Anemometer data

  11. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (9) “Sea-breeze” during active monsoon period • Enhanced land-ward flow around noon • No return flow in the 1.5-2.5 km height range • Low-level wind maxima are in phase and seems to be correlated with sea-to-land transition of active convection composite data of January 1996 Are there sea-breezes during active monsoon periods?

  12. THE TROPICAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION (10) Effects of latitude, atmospheric stability, and size of island : some theoretical studies Niino (1987) < 1.3  steady convection Walsh (1974) Kimura and Eguchi (1972)

  13. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (1) PWV

  14. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (2) Simulation of Jan/Feb 2002 Jakarta Flood Event Concentration of large rainfall over Jakarta area duringseveral days and extreme torrential rainfall triggered big flood

  15. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (3) • Synoptic scale conditionrelated to the flood event of Jan/Feb 2002 • Southward migration of monsoon trough • Appearance of cyclonic vortex over the Indian Oceansouth-west of Jakarta • Data : NCEP global tropospheric analysis and GMS IR imageries(daily averaged TBB)

  16. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (4) Comparison with the cases of 2006 and 2007 Confluence Flood in Central Java Severe flood in Jakarta (again) Cyclonic vortex

  17. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (5) Simulated rainfall during 27-30 Jan 2002 using MM5

  18. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (6)

  19. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (7) Model intercomparison CCAM (Figure by JMA) Data initial Global model output : NCEP-GFS : 1° x 1°, 6 hour interval, 24 pressure levels, case study of Feb. 2008, initial at 1200 UTC, up to 48-hour prediction donwscale 27km x 27 km Initial &boundarycondition Donwscale (MM5, WRF, and NHM) 9 km x 9 km

  20. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (8) Temperature MM5 WRF NHM CCAM

  21. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (9) U10m MM5 WRF NHM CCAM

  22. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (10) 24-hour GFS-CCAMi Intercomparison using GFS final analisis At boundaries

  23. Modeling The Mesoscale Weather (11)

  24. Climate Variability (1) onset break July 2005 – June 2006 July 2001 – June 2002 July 1998 – June 1999 retreat OLR over Java Composite 1981

  25. Climate Variability (2) 2003 – 2007 Composite of Daily Rainfall over Lombok break Gambar 3: Curah Hujan Harian Bulan Basah Komposit Tahun 2003-2007 Loang Make dan Jurang Sate

  26. Climate Variability (3) Seasonal Prediction Using CFS-Output PC-1 Koefisien PC -1 Koefisien PC -1 X Data TRMM PC-1 Data CFS X PC-2 Koefisien PC -2 Koefisien PC -2 X X PC-2 Input 1/prediktan Input 2/prediktor • . • . • . • . • . • . OUPUT 1

  27. Climate Variability (4) Predicted monthly Rainfall (October and November 2008)

  28. Climate Variability (5) ECMWF System-3 daily output

  29. Climate Change (1)

  30. Climate Change (2) Recent rainfall analysisusing GPCC data

  31. Climate Change (4)

  32. Climate Change (5) Polynomial trend projection

  33. Climate Change (6)

  34. Climate Change (7) Impact of strong ENSO 1997/1998

  35. Climate Change (8) PDO teleconnection

  36. Climate Change (9) Interdecadal Variation

  37. This Two-Week Work Putting it up together? Weaking of ENSO Strengthening of Southerlies ? Vortex advection?

  38. Climate Change (10) Alternative (simple) Method for Cl;imate Projection utilizing GCM output Baseline climate composite + rainfall and temp.projection2030s & 2080s time slices 2001-2007 prediction best match validation + Baseline model composite Raw Model projection △ = simulated future values – baseline model mean development

  39. Climate Change (11) Results for Lombok Island (monthlyrainfall) ECHAM5 MRI GFDL (2.0&2.1) CSIRO Mk.2 Ensemble mean

  40. Climate Change (11)

  41. International Collaboration (1)

  42. International Collaboration (2) Translation of COMET Modules into Bahasa Indonesia

More Related