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The Role Of

The Role Of. Human Bias. In Our. Analysis. And. Decision-Making. Accuracy. 圖資三 張雅婷. 圖資三 鄭文音. Cognitive Bias. Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias . Confirmation bias, Congruence bias . Contrast effect, Denomination effect . Distinction bias , Endowment effect.

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The Role Of

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  1. The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis And Decision-Making Accuracy 圖資三 張雅婷 圖資三 鄭文音

  2. Cognitive Bias Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effect Experimenter's or Expectation bias Illusion of control , Impact bias Information bias, Irrational escalation

  3. Cognitive Bias Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Groupthink Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effect Experimenter's or Expectation bias Blindspots Illusion of control , Impact bias Information bias, Irrational escalation

  4. Groupthink

  5. Cause of Groupthink A desire to avoid being seen as foolish A desire to avoid embarrassing or angering other members of the group A culture that mutes risk-taking

  6. Challenger Any suggestion that would lead to a delay was rejected. All member felt obligated to live up to the group “norms” Employees conducted private conversation are under high stress and concerned about losing future

  7. Other tragic result Attack on Pearl Harbor Korean War Vietnam War Invasion of Iraq “I’m not interested in groupthink!”

  8. Blindspots

  9. Types of Blindspots Unchallenged assumptions Corporate myths Corporate taboos

  10. Top 3 Tech Howlers The iPod will never take off. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. ? Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.

  11. Top 3 Tech Howlers The iPod will never take off. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.

  12. Ken Olsen The CEO and founder of DEC Have strong opinions about PC Corporate myth

  13. 1. Call in external resources or outside experts to review your work

  14. 2. Have someone you trust review your work

  15. 3. Keep an open mind Question everything

  16. 4. Think objectively by placing yourself in the position of an outsider

  17. 5. Get in the habit of questioning all assumptions

  18. 6. Play devil’s advocate if necessary.

  19. Have two teams work on the same request 7.

  20. 8. Do not hold a personal attachment or assign over-important to your own recommendation

  21. 9. Rotate roles and responsibilities within your competitive intelligence team

  22. 10. As a manager try and hold your opinions to yourself

  23. T.HANKS

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