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Alan F. Hamlet Amy K. Snover Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Designing Hydrologic Modeling Studies to Support Diverse Climate Change Planning Needs in the Columbia River Basin. Alan F. Hamlet Amy K. Snover Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

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Alan F. Hamlet Amy K. Snover Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier

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  1. Designing Hydrologic Modeling Studies to Support Diverse Climate Change Planning Needs in the Columbia River Basin Alan F. Hamlet Amy K. Snover Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington WA State Department of Ecology

  2. Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming • Impacts: • Increased winter flow • Earlier and reduced peak flows • Reduced summer flow volume • Reduced late summer low flow

  3. PNW Pilot Climate Change Planning Efforts: West Side Cascades Partnerships: Portland Water Bureau Seattle Public Utilities Tualitin Basin White River-Lake Tapps Snohomish River Basin King Co. Columbia Basin Partnerships: Northwest Power and Conservation Council (BPA) US Bureau of Reclamation (Boise) Seattle District Corps of Engineers Idaho Department of Water Resources

  4. Recession of the Muir Glacier Aug, 13, 1941 Aug, 31, 2004 Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html

  5. Collapse of the Larsen B Ice shelf, Antarctica March 5, 2002

  6. 9.0 2005 8.0 7.0 2004 6.0 5.0 Annual area (ha × 106) affected by MPB in BC 2003 4.0 3.0 2.0 2002 1.0 2001 2000 1999 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year Bark Beetle Outbreak in British Columbia (Figure courtesy Allen Carroll)

  7. Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997 Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49

  8. As the West warms, spring flows rise and summer flows drop Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, 2005: Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America, J. Climate, 18 (8): 1136-1155

  9. An Opportunity to Provide Improved Access to Hydrologic Scenarios for Planning As the public and professionals in the water management and policy arenas have become increasing concerned about the impacts of climate change on PNW water resources, demand for hydrologic scenarios suitable for planning purposes at a range of spatial scales has increased dramatically. Currently there does not exist an up-to-date, comprehensive, and self-consistent data base of hydrologic scenarios for the Columbia River basin that is suitable for the range of planning activities the Climate Impacts Group is being asked to support.

  10. WA House Bill 2860 • $16 Million for studies related to enhancing water supplies in the Columbia River basin for irrigation and municipal water supply. • Up to $200 Million for implementing improvements identified by these studies. • Answers to FAQ regarding WA 2860 from the Department of Ecology website: • http://www.ecy.wa.gov/pubs/0611014.pdf

  11. Schematic of a Typical Water Planning Framework Observed Streamflows Planning Models System Drivers

  12. Schematic of Climate Change Water Planning Framework Observed Streamflows Planning Models Altered Streamflows Climate Change Scenarios System Drivers

  13. The Need to Encompass Multiple Spatial Scales

  14. Large Scale Planning Studies • Examples: • Hydro System Performance • Flood Control • Main Stem ESA • Transboundary Issues • Large-Scale Irrigation Impacts

  15. Medium Scale Planning Studies • Examples: • Water Supply Planning • Yakima Basin • Okanogan Basin • Methow • Walla Walla Basin WA State Water Resources Inventory Areas

  16. +3.2°C °C +1.7°C +0.7°C 1.2-5.5°C 0.9-2.4°C Observed 20th century variability 0.4-1.0°C Pacific Northwest

  17. % -1 to +3% +6% +2% +1% Observed 20th century variability -2 to +21% -1 to +9% Pacific Northwest

  18. Result: Daily Precipitation, Tmax, Tmin 1915-2003

  19. Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and Energy Balance Snow Model 6 km 1/16th Deg. PNW 6 km Snow Model

  20. Streamflow Locations Currently Under Consideration Blue = Large Scale Planning Sites Green = Snake River Sites Red = Additional Sites in WA Partnerships with OR, ID, and BC are being discussed with the intent to extend the number of sites in these areas.

  21. Alternate Approach: DHSVM Developed in the UW Land Surface Hydrology Research Group at UW for over a decade a research tool, also is used operationally applied to small catchments DHSVM: Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

  22. Medium Scale Planning Studies WA State Water Resources Inventory Areas

  23. Some Potential Advantages of DHSVM Approach • Increased spatial resolution down to the watershed scale • Increased temporal resolution (high and low flow extremes) • Water temperature simulations • Simple ground water scheme improves base flow simulations • Future access to sediment transport capability (research)

  24. Proposed Downscaling Approaches Statistical Downscaling (GCM) 10 scenarios Dynamic Downscaling (nested MM 5) 2 scenarios Improvements in downscaling techniques will be implemented to allow evaluation of daily effects on flooding and low flow events.

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