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OECD TRADE INDICATORS PROJECT Statistical analysis of international trade and production: towards a scoreboard of indic

OECD TRADE INDICATORS PROJECT Statistical analysis of international trade and production: towards a scoreboard of indicators. Lelio Iapadre (University of L’Aquila and National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy) Alessia Proietti (National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy). Background.

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OECD TRADE INDICATORS PROJECT Statistical analysis of international trade and production: towards a scoreboard of indic

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  1. OECD TRADE INDICATORS PROJECTStatistical analysis of international trade and production: towards a scoreboard of indicators Lelio Iapadre (University of L’Aquila and National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy) Alessia Proietti (National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy)

  2. Background • The OECD Handbook on Economic Globalisation Indicators (HEGI) • The concept of economic globalisation and its measurement • Foreign direct investment • The economic activity of multinational enterprises • The internationalisation of technology • Aspects of trade globalisation • The Trade Indicators Project (TIP): a survey of statistical indicators on international trade and production • International integration • Policy restrictiveness • Performance and competitiveness • Structural indicators • Structural decomposition techniques • Enterprise-related data • OECD Statistics on Enterprises by Size Class (SEC) • Eurostat pilot project on enterprise-related trade data

  3. Targets • Identifying a limited set of statistical indicators, based on their analytical and policy relevance • Developing enterprise-related indicators, based on linkages between the existing statistical registers and databases on business international activities • Publishing a new statistical product on international trade and production

  4. TIP products in 2003 • A taxonomy of statistical indicators for the analysis of international trade and production • A review of trade policy indicators • New indicators for the analysis of intra-regional trade

  5. The Scoreboard on Economic Globalisation • A final target and a framework for on-going projects • Co-ordination between different projects (HEGI, TIP, SEC) and OECD departments • Co-operation with other institutions and research centres

  6. Some examples:international performance and competitiveness indicators • The taxonomy: • Net trade indicators • Market shares • Price indicators • Composite indicators

  7. Net trade performance indicators • The normalized trade balance Z = (X – M) / (X + M) – 1  Z  1 where: X = exports M = imports

  8. Market shares • The share of OECD exports Si = Xi / Σi Xi 0  Si 1 where: Xi= exports of country i i = 1 … n OECD members

  9. Competitiveness indicators • The real effective exchange rate q = E  P / P* where: E = nominal effective exchange rate (foreign currency per unit of domestic currency) P = index of domestic prices P* = index of foreign prices

  10. Some examples: structural indicators • The taxonomy • Single-flow indicators of trade intensity and specialization • Net-trade indicators of specialization • Inter/Intra-industry trade intensity • Intra-firm trade indicators • Measures of similarity • Measures of concentration and diversification

  11. Single-flow indicators of trade intensity and specialization • The symmetric revealed comparative advantage index SRCAik = (RCAik – 1) / (RCAik + 1) RCAik = (xik / Σk xik) / (xwk / Σk xwk) where: xik = country i’s exports of product k xwk = world exports of product k

  12. Net trade indicators of specialization • The normalized share balance NSBik = [(xik / Σk xik) - (mik / Σk mik)] / [(xik / Σk xik) + (mik / Σk mik)] - 1  NSBik 1 where: xik = country i’s exports of product k mik = country i’s imports of product k

  13. The Grubel-Lloyd index of intra-industry trade • Definition of intra-industry trade: balanced two-way trade in goods produced by the same industry • Inspiration: studies on trade bilateralism in the Thirties • Relation with measures of similarity

  14. The Vona index of intra-industry trade • Definition of intra-industry trade: two-way flows of goods produced by the same industry, independently of their balance • The CEPII approach: the overlap threshold

  15. Measures of similarity • The Finger-Kreinin index of similarity between trade distributions FKij = 1 – [½ Σk |(xik / Σk xik) - (xjk / Σk xjk)|] where: xik = country i’s exports of product k xjk = country j’s exports of product k

  16. Measures of concentration • The Herfindahl index of export concentration by product Hi = where: xik = country i’s exports of product k

  17. The need for enterprise-related statistics • A clear understanding of phenomena such as intra-firm trade and international production networks requires enterprise-related data • Available statistical sources • The AFA and FATS databases • Enterprise-related trade statistics

  18. Italian exports value by enterprise size - 2001

  19. Italian exporting firms by number of markets - 2001

  20. Conclusions • Main features of the Scoreboard on Economic Globalization • An integrated analysis of international trade and production • Emphasis on enterprise-related data • A user-friendly tool, giving access to a wide range of different data-bases • A laboratory for new data production techniques, based on linkages between different archives

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