1 / 8

Research Needs * †

Research Needs * †. We are now in the “accountability” phase of MP, where we must closely monitor the layer through the sensitive recovery period. - Are our actions having the desired effects? - Is the ozone layer recovering?

nasim-randolph
Download Presentation

Research Needs * †

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Research Needs*† We are now in the “accountability” phase of MP, where we must closely monitor the layer through the sensitive recovery period. - Are our actions having the desired effects? - Is the ozone layer recovering? Vigilance is essential during adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. - Are there any unintended consequences to the ozone layer? †Starting from Ravi’s talk on Sunday [*Adapted from: Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.4: Trends in Emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for UV Radiation Exposure]

  2. Scientific Findings (a) (b) (c) (d) ODS production ODS production Ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere ODS in the atmosphere Ozone levels-measured and predicted Global ozone change UV levels-measured and predicted Ultraviolet radiation change 1980 Now2100 “There is even stronger evidence since the 2002 Assessment that the Montreal Protocol is working”

  3. Return of ozone to pre-1980 levels • ODS are decreasing & the ozone layer is starting its recovery • Climate change and ODSs will affect the future of ozone layer • Decreases in ODS emissions already achieved by MP is the dominant factor in return to pre-1980 values Global ozone layer (60oS-60oN) is expected to recover to pre-1980 values around 2050 But failure to continue compliance with the MP could delay or even prevent the recovery of the ozone layer

  4. A balanced programme of atmospheric observations, laboratory measurements, modelling and data analysis. Particular plea for (continued) collection of long-term measurements for science.

  5. Pacific Samoa 14ºS Atlantic Ascension 7ºS Testing convection? O3 sondes Continental Africa Niamey 12 º N July 2006 Africa/Indian Ocean Reunion I 21ºS SHADOZ + SCOUT-O3 AMMA data

  6. Gaps in Our Knowledge and Future Needs 1. Continued atmospheric observations - Ozone - ODS - New releases (ascertain their ozone friendliness!) - UV and its changes • Needs recognised here include • the absolute necessity to maintain high quality GB observations • concerns about satellite data (gaps) - hi-res ozone profiles; ODS (Cly, Bry) evolution; water vapour; ozone diagnostics.

  7. Gaps and needs, continued 2. Understanding the processes that impact ozone layer - chemical processes Need for updated lab measurements, e.g. ClO dimer, ODS lifetimes - dynamical processes e.g., strengthening BD circulation; ODS lifetimes - New releases 3. Global models - Deal with stratosphere as an integral part of the Earth system - Enable better prediction of recovery and accounting CCMVal activity 4. Reporting and documentation - Better accounting for ODSs and related chemicals

  8. Important that we maximise use of all resources - infrastructure, capital and human. Overlap between programmes? Overlap of data bases? Trust fund/capacity building?

More Related