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ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies Roberta Capello

ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies Roberta Capello. Seminario ESPON 15 gennaio 2004 Roma,Università di Tor Vergata. Aims of the project.

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ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies Roberta Capello

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  1. ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies Roberta Capello Seminario ESPON 15 gennaio 2004 Roma,Università di Tor Vergata

  2. Aims of the project • to provide a cost assessment of future efficiency and cohesion ICTs policies, through the construction of policy scenarios and the measurement of the impact of efficiency and cohesion policies on regional growth and disparities. • to detect different regional responses to ICTs policies, by highlighting different behavioural attitudes and reacting capacities of regions in front of alternative ICTs policy scenarios.

  3. Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies Available results: • maps on • accessibility absolute growth rate • Internet absolute growth rate • pc GDP average annual growth rate (at 2020 in the three scenarios) • cohesion indicators • Lorenz curves • Gini coefficients • maps on differences in pc GDP average annual growth • typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact

  4. STIMA model structure Change ofICTs investments Change of ICTs endowment Quasiproduction function Change of GDP per capita Change of absolute GDP Change of virtual accessibility Change in regional disparities

  5. Data • Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial data on ICTs • at Nuts 3: no availability • at Nuts 2: EOS Gallup Survey 1999 • survey conducted in households in the 15 Countries of the European Union • data collected through face-to-face interviews • by means of a quantitative questionnaire • on a representative sample in each Member State

  6. EOS Gallup sample Country Sampling PlanReal SampleNuts level used for sampling Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1 Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3 Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1 Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2 España 5000 5000 NUTS 2 France 5000 5301 NUTS 1 Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3 Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1 Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1 Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1 Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1 Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2 Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2 Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2 United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1 Total 43550 44340

  7. Scenario Hypotheses • Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional distribution of EU ICTs investments • among regions • lagging vs advanced • among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG Information society) • accessibility • internet connections • high-tech employment

  8. Distribution of ICTs investments according to different ICTs policy scenarios

  9. Forecasting methodology • 2% of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU member states • estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in accessibility, internet connections and high-tech employment • forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in 20 years • cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini coefficient)

  10. Scenario A: pc GDP average annual growth rate

  11. Scenario B: pc GDP average annual growth rate

  12. Scenario C: pc GDP average annual growth rate

  13. Cohesion indicators

  14. Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact

  15. Further Research • Model refinement of STIMA according to data availability • Model integration of SASI and STIMA • Qualitative analysis of specific policies like deregulation

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