T he National Minimum Wage, low pay and London Conor D’Arcy 9 June 2014

1. The National Minimum Wage, low pay and London Conor D’Arcy 9 June 2014

2. Assessing the minimum wage – what it has and hasn’t achieved • Reforming the minimum wage – the recommendations

3. Assessing the minimum wage

4. Debates on the NMW’s impact on earnings and employment are now largely settled …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • No general impact on employment or unemployment • Large positive effects on the earnings of the lowest paid workers

5. While some studies show unemployment effects, the balance of academic opinion is clear …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Effect of the US minimum wage on employment1,500 estimates from 64 academic studies

6. The NMW has grown at a faster rate than average earnings and inflation ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

7. Extreme low pay has collapsed but low pay more generally remains high …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Long-termtrends in low pay and extreme low pay Percentage of all employees below two thirds and half of median pay, 1968-2011

8. While some level of low pay is inevitable, the share of the workforce who are low paid varies considerably …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Percentage of full-time workers earning below two-thirds of the median wage

9. And for most, low pay doesn’t provide a first step on the ladder ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

10. London

11. The pattern seen nationally also plays out in London ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

13. The gap between London and the rest looks less dramatic when we consider who gets stuck on low pay ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

14. Reforming the minimum wage

15. Important to recognise the successes of the NMW and LPC while acknowledging the built-in limitations …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • The minimum wage has been highly successful—but it is clearly a settlement designed for the late 1990s • As we have seen, it was narrow and focused–the LPCset the UK’s first minimum wage with little evidence and concentrated on worst exploitation

16. Short-term:taking one step at a time, not looking too far ahead • The lack of direction mattered less in the early years but now there’s reason to think it’s more important …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. The path of the minimum wage over time £ per hour, constant prices, adjusted for CPI

17. Passive– taking a hands-off approach – the minimum wage plus a penny • The spike at the NMW is larger than expected—and it’s growing despite falling value. Many employers face little pressure to go further. …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. The growing spike at the minimum wage % of employees by 5 pence pay bands

18. Broader: Tackling low pay should be an objective of economic policy, backed by a powerful OBR-style low pay watchdog …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Low pay across OECD countries Percentage of full-time workers earning below two-thirds of the median wage

19. More far-sighted: We suggest a two-pronged approach—more ambition from government, more support from LPC …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • Government sets out ambitions on the minimum wage • Proportion of median earnings • Medium-term horizon, e.g. five years • 60% a reasonable lodestar for what can and cannot be achieved • An expression of intent… • Low Pay Commission is evidence-based but more pro-active • Recommends rate that’s possible from year to year • Notes the gap with the government’s ambition • Points out blockages and advises on policy to support higher rate

20. More assertive: The NMW is a blunt tool. We need pressure points above it to avoid a strategy of ‘NMW plus a penny’ …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • Inevitable constraint of a single national minimum wage • Set for the most vulnerable part of the labour market • Many employers could afford a higher wage-floor • Becomes a problem if employers take it as the going rate • Some argue for mandatory sector rates. But… • Risk of complexity/enforcement problems • Practical difficulties

21. More assertive: The LPC should do more to inform the debate about which parts of the economy could afford to pay more …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. The affordability of eliminating low pay by sector Average wage increase by industry if wage floor had been raised to low pay threshold Easier to afford  Sectors  Harder to afford Food and drink, accommodation, residential care Cumulative # of low paid workers: 1.5m 1.4m 400k 190k

22. No case for regional variation – more difference within than between – but London may be the exception …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • While the bite of the NMW varies by region, in most parts of the UK the NMW is equal to between 50 and 60 per cent of the hourly median wage. In London the bite is just 39 per cent • Many national employers already have a specific London-weighting which they add to the wages of those working in the capital to recognise the higher cost of living • Research already suggests that the London economy could bear a higher wage-floor.

23. No case for regional variation – more difference within than between – but London may be the exception …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • The LPC should commission similar research, not least to secure the legitimacy of the social partnership model • It should then publish a figure for the minimum wage that London could bear without significant adverse effects on employment • This rate should be published as a non-mandatory reference rateto inform wage negotiators, campaigners and public debate • If employers did not respond to pressure to pay this rate, there may well be a case in future for granting the relevant authority in London the power to adopt the LPC’s recommendation as a mandatory

24. Summary: Retain the core of today’s settlement but strengthen it – broader, more far-sighted and more assertive …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • A single legal National Minimum Wage recommended from year to year by the independent Low Pay Commission • As part of a broader strategy to combat low pay, with the LPC as a powerful low pay watchdog • Minimum wage set with more clarity and more balance of short-term flexibility and medium-term ambition • A more assertive approach, pushing further in London and where sectors could afford to pay more

25. The National Minimum Wage, low pay and London Conor D’Arcy 9 June 2014

26. The impact - why didn’t the NMW cause unemployment? …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. • Reducing pay gaps between low paid and better paid workers • Cutting non-wage benefits and hours, though not enough to offset the upsides • Pushing up prices(slightly) in sectors like take-away food, canteens and hotels • Squeezing profits, though with no identifiable effect on the rate of business failure • Boosting productivity in low paying sectors, particularly in large firms