CHANGING DISASTER PREPAREDNESS BEHAVIOR

1. CHANGING DISASTER PREPAREDNESS BEHAVIOR Dennis S. Mileti, Professor Emeritus University of Colorado at Boulder & START Center, University of Maryland Linda B. Bourque, Professor Megumi Kano, Research Fellow Michele M. Wood, Project Manager University of California at Los Angeles & START Center, University of Maryland Luncheon Presentation Building a Community of Preparedness: 2nd Annual Fritz Institute Disaster Conference San Francisco, CA: December 6, 2007

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Current California Funding: • Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission • Institute for Business & Home Safety • Southern California Association of Governments • Current National Funding: • U.S. Department of Homeland Security • Past Funding Sources: • Entergy Corporation • National Science Foundation • U.S. Forest Service

3. FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION How to Get People to: STOP... LISTEN… & ACT

4. WHAT IS GETTING READY ? • Means Different Things to People • Can Be Viewed: • Simply • Conceptually • Comprehensively

5. SIMPLE VIEW • 72 Hours of Water • Flashlight & Batteries • Canned Food • Other Similar Items

6. CONCEPTUAL VIEW • Mitigation Actions: • structural & non-structural • Preparedness Actions: • supplies & plans • Loss Distribution Actions: • insurance • Knowledge & Cognitions: • what to do when

7. COMPREHENSIVE VIEW(for earthquakes) • Learn How to Be Ready • e.g., what to do during a quake to stay safe • Plan What to Do • e.g., household disaster plan, supply needs • Train & Practice • e.g., practice “drop, cover & hold” and learn first aid • Organize Supplies, Equipment, & Information • e.g., stockpile what you’ll need • Secure Building Contents • e.g., attach heavy furniture to the walls, use earthquake hooks • Protect Building Structure • e.g., evaluate the safety of your home, retrofit, etc. • Safeguard Finances • e.g., buy earthquake insurance, have cash on hand, etc.

8. WHAT’S PUBLIC EDUCATION? • Means Different Things to Different People • Includes Many Actors & Activities, e.g., • Brochures • Television & radio spots • Internet sites • School coloring books & Grocery bag messages • Museum displays • Refrigerator magnets • School, workplace, & neighborhood activities • Individual Campaigns vs. “Orchestrate” them All into an Ongoing Meta-Campaign

9. HAZARDS COMMUNICATION RESEARCH ON DISASTERS • More than 50 Years of Social Science Research • Natural, Technological, Terrorism Studied • Public Education & Warning Events Researched • 350 Publications: • Read, abstracted, key findings listed • “Cracked the Public Education Nut” in 1990s: • With studies on California households • Replicated on different Bay Area populations/events • We know what works & why

10. ACCESS THE RESEARCH • 350 Page Annotated Bibliography: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/publications/informer/infrmr2/pubhazbibann.pdf • Note: • Individual studies = “findings” • Examining findings across studies = “knowledge” • Published studies vary in quality

11. CHARACTERISTICS OF QUALITY RESEARCH • Uses Past Research as its Context • Uses Probability Samples • Analyses Control for “X, Y & Z” when Examining Impact of “A on B” • Determinants of Behavior Measured & Tested vs. Respondents Asked to Speculate “Why” they did Something

12. QUALITY RESEARCH (cont’d) • Distinguishes Between: • What people “think” vs. what people “do” (they’re different) • Good measures of what’s being studied vs. self-reports: • Medical exam self-report: “On a scale of 1 to 5, how much cancer do you think you have?” • Readiness self-report equivalent: “On a scale of 1 to 5, how prepared do you think you are?” • Recommendations for Practice Based on Replicated Findings across Studies

13. TOPICS COVERED TODAY • RESEARCH: Summarize Findings: • What influences the public to get ready? • How does the process work? • What’s most important? • APPLICATIONS: Summarize How to Do It: • Design programs that work • Maximize household readiness

14. WHAT INFLUENCES HOUSEHOLD READINESS?(Research Findings) • Characteristics of the Information • Characteristics of the Audience • “Process” by Which They Mix

15. INFORMATION FACTORS “About the Campaign”

16. FACTOR 1: INFORMATION • Many Different Sources (who from): • The more the better • Many Different Channels (how get it): • The more the better • Frequency (how often they get it): • Repetition is a must (confirms & reinforces the message) • People need to hear it ≥ 10 times to act • Guidance (tell them what to do): • If you want them to “get ready”, tell them “what to do”

17. INFORMATION (cont’d) • The Event (why they should do it): • Describe potential losses • Impacts of an event is more important than the science behind it • Discuss the need to take action • Not the probability, but the dichotomous decision officials have made that people need to take action now • Consistency (across communications): • Works best if messages from different campaigns/organizations say the same thing • Orchestrated (across organizations): • Works best if different campaigns/organizations work together rather than separately

18. FACTOR 2: CUES • Combine Verbal Messages with Visual Messages to Increase Effectiveness • Two Kinds of Cues: • Physical cues (seeing things) • Social cues (seeing people do things) • Fundamental to Human Behavior: • “Monkey See, Monkey Do”

19. PUBLIC FILTER FACTORS “About the Audience” (Differences between people are a filter through which information must pass. The filter “distorts” the effectiveness of the information disseminated.)

20. FACTOR 3: STATUS • Socio-economic Status (SES) • Definition: income, occupational prestige, education • Why: use different information sources, who’s credible varies, different resources, and more • Age • Why: young & old most vulnerable, old most resistant to changing what they think and do • Gender • Why: women more inclined to take actions about risk, young men are the biggest risk takers • Race/Ethnicity • Why: co-varies with SES, different values & norms • Acculturation • Including: language spoken, country of birth • Why: integration into mainstream life, disaster/risk norms from other places

21. FACTOR 4: ROLES • Responsibility for Others: • Including: partnership, family, children • Why: being responsible/tied to others increases salience of risk reduction & reduces risk-taking behaviors

22. FACTOR 5: EXPERIENCE • Experience: with Past Events: • Why: People “Normalize” Communicated Risk Information Based on their Experience • They think the risks they face will be like the events they’ve experienced • They think what was good to do in the last event is what would be good to do to get ready for future events

23. PROCESS FACTORS “About How the Campaign & Audience Mix”

24. FACTOR 6: BELIEF • Much Confusion on this Topic: • Equate source credibility with information belief • “Believing the Information” vs. “Trusting the Source” • No One Credible Source for Everyone: • Single trustworthy sources leave people behind • Pathways to Information Belief: • Multiple sources, not a single source • Hearing it over & over from an un-trusted source • Best: Hearing it over & over from mixed sources

25. FACTOR 7: KNOWLEDGE • PUT IN: Most Important Things to “Tell Them” to Foster Getting Ready: • What to do to get ready • Where to get more information about it • TAKE OUT: Most Important Thing to “Remove” to Foster Getting Ready: • Their natural inclination: “I’m safe & I don’t need to know anything else” • Varies by hazard, local culture, etc.

26. FACTOR 8: PERCEIVED RISK • Risk Perception does not = Behavior • Major Roadblock to Taking Action: • “I’m safe, I’ll find information that confirms it, that’s what I’ll believe, and I’ll ignore you” • People perceive safety • People Dichotomize Risk & Action: • Probabilities translated into “will it happen or not?” • Basic question: “Do I need to do something or not?” • It’s not about behavior in proportion to probability estimates

27. FACTOR 9: MILLING • The Key to Public Education that Works • Nobody Does Something Because Someone Tells Them To Do It • People Have to Think It’s Their Own Idea • Comes from Talking It Over with Others: • Known as “milling” in social psychology • Milling is KEY factor that sparks public household readiness actions

28. HOW FACTORS RELATE

29. FACTORS HAVE “SEQUENCED” EFFECTS (for example) • Perceived Risk Determined by: • Multiple communications • Multiple channels • Milling Determined by: • Multiple communications • Multiple channels • Perceived risk • Mitigation/Preparedness Determined by: • Multiple communications • Multiple channels • Perceived risk • Milling

30. SEQUENCE OF FACTORS Status Information Received Information Belief Roles Perceived Risk Milling Action Cues Knowledge Experience

31. THE SEQUENCE MODELLED Information Received Perceived Risk Cues Status Milling Roles Action Experience Information Belief Knowledge

32. REDUCING IT TO MATHEMATICS • Represented by Equations: • Called a “series of simultaneous multiple regression equations” • Can Determine: • Effect of every factor in the model on other factors while controlling for the effects of all other factors (“good” science) • Result Is: • We can distinguish between what’s really important and what isn’t • When to Get Excited: • When different studies reach the same conclusions • That’s where we are with research on hazards public education for increased household readiness

33. CONCLUSIONS FROM THE MATHEMATICS • All Statistically Significant Factors “AREN’T” Equally Important • Some Factors are “REALLY” Important: • Information Received • Especially telling what actions to take • Cues • Seeing others get ready • Milling • Talking about getting ready with others • Some Factors are “LESS” Important: • Demographics (unless information is poor)

34. SEVEN APPLICATION STEPS(from Research Findings) • Public Hazards Education began Long Ago • Research Applications began in 1990s: • Done multiple times in California for earthquakes • Evaluated and confirmed multiple times in California for earthquakes • 7 Program Elements/Steps Work

35. STEP 1: DESIGN-IN PEOPLE & CONTEXT FACTORS • Use Age-appropriate Material • Deliver Messages in Multiple Languages • Use the Media Used by Different People • Partner with Locals/Others to get Message Out • Reference Past Disasters/Use Anniversaries • Take Advantage of Disasters Elsewhere • Install Observable Cues in the Neighborhood • Put Printed Material in Strategic Locations, e.g., • Grocery bags • School coloring books

36. MIDDLE CLASS APPROACHES LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND

37. STEP 2: UNDERSTANDABLE AND BELIEVABLE MESSAGES • Clear Material (no technical terms) • Use Locals Who Know Locals to Help Develop Messages • Cultivate & Use a Local Champion • Partner for Consistency Across Messages: • Media Packets Increase Consistency • Tell the Public What they Should Do • Use: • Attractive format • Simple language • Visual aids & graphics, for example

38. “GET READY PYRAMID” Many of the things you can do to “get ready” are free! You may already have some things in place. Safeguard Finances Protect Building Structure Cost Secure Building Contents Organize Supplies, Equipment, & Information Train & Practice Plan What to Do Learn How to Be Ready

39. STEP 3: “STREAM” OF COMMUNICATION OVER TIME • Effective Risk Communication is an “Ongoing” Process and not a Single Act: • “Stream of communication over time” • Same Message Communicated: • Many times • Over different dissemination channels • Explain Changes from Past Messages • Incremental Approach Over Time • Sustainable Campaign Over Time

40. “ONGOING” MULTI-CHANNEL COMMUNICATION MAILED BROCHURE GROCERY BAGS FRIENDS & RELATIVES INTERNET SCHOOLS HOUSEHOLDS TV NGOs CABLE TV RADIO TALK RADIO NEWSPAPERS FAST FOOD PLACEMATS

41. STEP 4: SHAPE RISK PERCEPTIONS FOR ACTION • Explain: • Who is at risk • Who isn’t • Why • Communicate Uncertainty about When, What, & Where, BUT: • Certainty in: • How to get ready • Experts agree we need to get ready now • Explain: • Potential losses • How losses can be prevented/reduced

42. THIS WASN’T COVERED

43. SO SOME NORMALIZED RISK AND DIDN’T EVACUATE Hurricane Katrina: New Orleans

44. STEP 5: MAKE MILLING THE “PRIME TARGET” • Tell Them Where to Get Additional Information • Put Additional Information in Accessible Places • Take Advantage of Community Events • Provide Contact Information, e.g., • Point persons • Websites • Mail and email addresses • Encourage Them to Talk About it with Others

45. “LET’S TALK ABOUT OUR FAULTS” (SoCal EQ Alliance)

46. STEP 6: ENCOURAGE AND SUPPORT ACTION • Give Specific Guidance on What to Do: • Before • During • After • Use Interactive & Experiential Approach • Take Advantage of Opportunities: • Drills & exercises • Tell Them Where & How to Get: • Resources • Technical support • Professional services • Use Public/Private Partnerships to Provide Materials

47. EXAMPLE BROCHURE

48. STEP 7: EVALUATE & MONITOR EFFECTIVENESS • Find Your Starting Place: • Get a “baseline” of household mitigation & preparedness actions • Assess Change: • Measure changes in baseline over time • Determine Visibility: • Find out if they recognize your campaign • Evaluate: • Which campaign components are & aren’t working • Fine Tune: • Change Your Campaign Based on Findings

49. A SURVEY CAN DO THAT INTERVIEWER: DATE: RESPONDENT ID: HOUSEHOLD READINESS SURVEY INTERVIEW START TIME: ______ : ______ AM / PM INTRODUCTION Hello, I’m … calling from the University of California. We are interviewing people to find out what they think should be done to prepare for emergencies and disasters in their community. This information may help us improve responses to emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and other disasters. As a thank you, participants will receive a $20 gift certificate. I need to ask just a few questions to see if you are eligible to participate. S1A. Have I reached you at your home phone? YES SKIP TO S1D 1 NO ASK S1B 2 S1B. Is this a residence? YES ASK S1E 1 NO TERMINATE, DIAL AGAIN 2 For this survey, I have to speak with someone who lives there who is 18 years old or older. Are you 18 or over? YES SKIP TO S1F 1 NO ASK S1E 2 NO ONE IN HH IS 18 OR OLDER,TERMINATE 3

50. WHAT’S NEEDED SUMMARY • Tailored for Diverse Groups (not one Public) • Believable & Understandable Messages • Consistent Messages (“Branding”) • Delivered over Diverse Channels • “Ongoing” Coordinated Communication Stream • Shape Risk Perceptions for Public Action • Facilitate & Target “Milling” • Support Actions • Evaluate Results & Make Appropriate Changes