Antoine Lafitte – ICZM Programme Officer – Plan Bleu Sophia -Antipolis, near Nice, FRANCE

1. Presentation of a participatory method taking into account CVC issues on coastal zone. Antoine Lafitte – ICZM Programme Officer – Plan Bleu Sophia -Antipolis, near Nice, FRANCE Project title Integration of climatic variability and change into national strategies to implement the ICZM Protocol in the Mediterranean. Sibenik, 08th April 2013

2. Presentation of “imagine” method 1

3. Basic principles of " Imagine" • Systemic analysis: which allows cross-cutting vision of territorial issues, highlight interaction between various components… • Territorial prospective: which allows building shared images of the future by participatory process at local level (local participatory scenarios) • Sustainability Indicators to follow-up the main trends • Participation of local stakeholders Participatoryprocess Systemicanalysis Indicators Scenario making ‘Imagine’

4. "Imagine" has been tested, validated and implemented in five CAMPs : Malta (2000-2002); Lebanon (2002-2003); Algiers (2003-2005); Slovenia (2005); Cyprus (2006-2007).

5. The 5-step"Imagine" process Workshop 4. Model & Explore: Meta scenario making Workshop 1. Understanding the context. Describe the situation (diagnostic phase) Workshop 3. Mini-scenarios for each indicator Workshop 5 Do & suggest: actions plan & follow-up. Workshop 2. Indicators, thresholds & band of equilibrium

6. Presentation of “climagine” method 2

7. The 3-step"Climagine" process • Workshop 1 • Understand the context: territorial diagnosis, • Draw “Rich Pictures” to identify priority issues on the coastal zone, • Prioritise the issues. • Workshop 2 • Select a final core set of indicators related to issues, • Use matrix to rank issues and indicators, • Define the indicator’s band of equilibrium, • Define the scenario assumptions. • Workshop 3 • Explore future through scenarios, • Present and discuss the results, • Elaborate of recommendations • and setting the priorities for a local ICZM action plan.

8. Workshop 1: Understanding the context in drawing Rich Picture to identify priority issues. • The key question is : What are the main drivers and pressures in the coastal area ? • This exercise of schematization allows to: • Break the ice by a friendly exercise: Do not take yourself too serious… Give a playful frame to difficult tasks… • Describe the system and all the components in interaction to identify their interrelations (the system’s complexity) • In producing the “Rich Pictures” you: • Consider your project context in terms of Components, Structures and Processes • Identify some main issues which need to be taken into account

9. Workshop 2: define and find a consensus on the indicators, coming from« Rich Pictures»

10. Some easy hits : Best available indicators

11. A matrix to rank issues & indicators

12. Sustainability thresholds and Band of equilibrium “To determine the sustainability of an indicator, a minimal and maximum value (lower limit and upper limit) is given to each one. Between those values, criteria for adhering to sustainabledevelopment are assessed. This is what is called the Band of Equilibrium.” The band of equilibrium, where the level of achievement is agreed to be sustainable Lower limit (acceptable) Upper limit (acceptable)

13. Graphic of the sustainability of the coastal zone of Algiers in 2003 (Algiers CAMP) 13

14. Sustainability and indicators: band of equilibrium :Example: Total fertility rate (Number of children per woman in fertility period) Four values are defined for each indicator: A = unsustainable by deficit B = sustainable at the lower limit C = sustainable at the higher limit D = unsustainable by excess D = maximum Band of equilibrium C 8 A = minimum B 2.3 1.9 0 2.1 generation replacement

15. Workshop 3: Scenarios drawing: Initial status of the system, current situation and Evolution. What should be the future of the system ? • 1- Knowledge of the system (coming from “rich pictures”), for that identify: • Stakeholders • Focal issues: threats & pressures • Process/development • Conflicts, challenges, stakes, • Opportunities: drivers of change 2- Define and rank assumptions of scenarios (use matrix: assumptions/variables). 3- Choose the time horizon (it might be the year 2030, medium term.) Source : MAAPRAT – SSP – Centre d’étude et de prospective • 4- Think about a business as usual and alternative scenarios. • Retrospective to show current evolution and the major trends • Projection into the future by answering questions “If… then…” or “What do we do if…?” • 5- Draft storylines for each scenarios.

16. Feedbacks frompreviousexperiences (CAMP) “CLImagine” constitutes a mediation tool towards settling conflict between sectors, as well as to remove barriers “ CLImagine ” allows to be aware of (and help resolve) conflicts over use. 3. Workshops provided an uncommon opportunity to discuss and debate common problems and projects. 4. It is a friendly format which is instrumental in “breaking the ice” between participants (e.g. “rich pictures”). 5. Public participation is encouraged and allows the sharing of concerns within inter-sectoral processes. 6. Using “CLImagine” provides attractive information about complex situations.

17. Thankyou for your attention !