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Electricity Technology Development for a Sustainable World: Bridging the Digital Divide

Electricity Technology Development for a Sustainable World: Bridging the Digital Divide. Sustentabilidade na Geração e Uso de Energia no Brasil UNICAMP, Fevereiro 2002. Acher Mosse Executive Director, Latin America. Transforming Society. Why an Electricity Technology Roadmap?.

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Electricity Technology Development for a Sustainable World: Bridging the Digital Divide

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  1. Electricity Technology Development for a Sustainable World: Bridging the Digital Divide Sustentabilidade na Geração e Uso de Energia no Brasil UNICAMP, Fevereiro 2002 Acher Mosse Executive Director, Latin America

  2. Transforming Society

  3. Why an Electricity Technology Roadmap? • Explore the implications of unprecedented technological and institutional change in the electricity enterprise • Develop a vision of opportunities and threats through the eyes of the electricity stakeholders • Define priority destinations within that vision to guide scientific and technical innovation • Focus and incent R&D resources to facilitate needed innovation pathways

  4. Electricity Technology Roadmap Foresight What changes on the horizon can fundamentally change the business? Technology Strategy Corporate Strategy What market and technology-drivenproducts and services are needed? Guidance

  5. Building the Electricity Technology Road 5 Manage Global Sustainability 2025 4 Resolve Energy/ Carbon Conflict 2015 3 2010 Accelerate Economic Productivity & Prosperity 2 Foster a Revolution in Services 2005 2003 2001 1 Resolve Power Delivery Vulnerability Figure.4

  6. Strategic Roadmap: Accomplish Three Parallel Work Efforts * Enable Bulk Power Market Flows Provide Reliable/Quality Power For A Digital Society Electricity Superhighway * * Automate Maintenance And Maximize Asset Utilization * 2000 2010 2020 *T&S Business Area Impact These Items In EPRI’s Overall Strategic Roadmap

  7. Roadmap Path 1: Enable Bulk Power Market Flows * * * Inter/Intra Regional Market * * * * * 1990 2000 2010 2020 *T&S Business Area Impact These Items In EPRI’s Overall Strategic Roadmap

  8. Roadmap Path 2: Provide Reliable/Quality Power For A Digital Society Adv. Subs/Distribution Relay Automation * Premium Power Options Custom/FACTS Power * * Premium Power Available For HV and LV Customers * * UPS Substation Emergence of the Distributed Utility * 1990 2000 2010 2020 *T&S Business Area Impact These Items In EPRI’s Overall Strategic Roadmap

  9. Creating the Infrastructure for the Digital Society Power Quality Events Electromagnetic Compatibility Problems Power Quality Interface End-UseDevices Distributed Resources Transmission Distribution Assure Grid Adequacy Develop Advanced Distributed Resources Develop Codes and Standards Develop Enhanced Interface Devices Make End-Use Devices Compatible and Less Sensitive Issues Solutions

  10. Policy Trilemma Pollution Population Policy Poverty

  11. 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040 Energy Intensity Can Be Reduced Through Electrification Energy Intensity U.K. U.S. Developing Countries Germany France Japan Source: Scientific American, Sept.1990

  12. Mankind’s Footprint, 1950-2050 Potential Savings 2050 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Gross Domestic Product($ trillions) 2000 20 15 Primary Energy Consumption (Gtoe*/yr.) 10 1950 5 0 *Gigatonnes of oil equivalent 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Population (billions)

  13. At least 2%/yr growth in global productivity is needed to achieve a sustainable world in the 21st century • Sustainability will increasingly impinge on the electricity business • The ‘2% solution’ recognizes that only growing economies are able to provide the resources needed for a world of 10 billion • Unfunded pension and health liabilities for an aging population threaten the world economy and social stability • Electrification needs to reach an additional 100 million people per year

  14. What 10,000 GW of Global Generating Capacity Means • Tripling current world power plant capacity • Adding 200,000 MW/yr • Investing $100-150 billion/yr It’s equivalent to: • < 5 years of current world automobile engine production • Less than 0.3% of world GDP • Less than the world spends on cigarettes, etc. It can and must be done!

  15. Carbon Intensity of World Primary Energy, 1900-2050 Carbon Intensity (tC/toe) Carbon Intensity of: Wood = 1.25 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Coal = 1.08 Oil = 0.84 Gas = 0.64 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2050 Source: National Academy of Engineering, 1997

  16. Energy/Carbon and Global Sustainability Limit-Breaking Technologies • Advanced nuclear, fossil, and renewable technologies • Carbon sequestration • Electricity/hydrogen infrastructure Figure.15

  17. R&D Investment: Too Low Drugs/Medicine Prof/Science Instr. Comm. Equipment Services Transp. Equipment Industrial Chemicals Stone/Clay/Glass Products Primary Metals Energy 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% R&D as % of Net Sales by Industry, 1995 Source: Margolis and Kammen

  18. Conclusion “The State is more than a partnership agreement in the trade of pepper and coffee, calico, or tobacco…It is a partnership in all science; a partnership in all art; a partnership in every virtue and in all perfection. As the end of such a partnership cannot be obtained in many generations, it becomes a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are [yet] to be born.” — Edmund Burke

  19. Roadmap Path 3: Automate Maintenance and Maximize Asset Utilization * Dynamic Ratings Maximized Asset Utilization * Integrated Real-Time Maintenance, Reliable Operations, and Maximized Asset Utilization * FACTS * Real-Time Operation’s Reliability Assessor * Sensors and Automated Inspection * Automated Maintenance * Diagnostics and Maintenance Management * 1990 2000 2010 2020 *T&S Business Area Impact These Items In EPRI’s Overall Strategic Roadmap

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