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Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX)

 An Examination of Decision Support Services Provided by the National Weather Service during Major Winter Storms. Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX). What Are Decision Support Services?.

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Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX)

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  1.  An Examination of Decision Support Services Provided by the National Weather Service during Major Winter Storms Jamie Enderlen (LOT) Marcia Cronce (MKX) Dennis Vancleve (MKX)

  2. What Are Decision Support Services? • Everything that occurs between finishing the forecast and a customer utilizing the forecast, product, or headline • How does my forecast affect ____ ? • Emergency managers • Ship captains • Snow plows • Travelers • How can we relay this message clearly, concisely, and easily? • Do we need to provide extra information to any partners?

  3. Purpose • Assess past DSS • Establish how far DSS has come • How else can we improve DSS • Focus is on major winter storms • January 1-3, 1999 Blizzard • Strong Winter Storm February 5-6, 2008 • Groundhog Day Blizzard February 1-2, 2011 • These results can be applied year round

  4. January 1-3, 1999 Blizzard

  5. Storm Facts – Jan. 1999 Blizzard • Second worst blizzard of the 20th Century • Second worst blizzard in Chicago • 43 MPH peak wind gust • 21.6” of snow fell at O’Hare International Airport • In Wisconsin • 10-20” of snow in southern Wisconsin • 30-35 MPH wind gusts • Widespread whiteout conditions • Arctic air behind storm • Min temps of -9°F January 4th and -16°F January 5th • Min wind chills of -28°F January 4thand -31°F January 5th

  6. Societal Impacts – Jan. 1999 Blizzard • Chicago Public Schools and Catholic schools closed for 2 days • Highways closed due to whiteouts • Numerous accidents • Lake Shore Drive closed for first time due to high winds and potential for flooding • 7000 without power in 3 southern WI counties • State of Emergency declared in 44 IN counties and all of IL • 40-45% of domestic flights cancelled at ORD, 50% of all flights cancelled at MDW • Chicago public transportation severely impacted during and after the storm

  7. NWS DSS – Jan. 1999 Blizzard • Well forecast storm • Winter Storm Outlook highlighting potential for a major winter storm issued 5 days before storm hit • Numerous Special Weather Statements issued before, during, and after storm • Strongly worded to alert travelers • Briefed Chicago Dept. of Streets and Sanitation before and during the event via direct phone line • Did not directly interact with TRACON or ORD Tower • Relied on users to call in for extra information

  8. Why Was the Impact Minimal? • A well forecast storm with a long lead time • Occurred over a holiday weekend • 280 snowplows (8x more than 1967 blizzard) • Chicago used 125 additional private plows, etc. • Airports rented extra equipment to clear runways • Some travelers heeded warnings • Left town early • Prepared for an extended stay

  9. Strong Winter Storm February 5-6, 2008

  10. Storm Facts – Feb. 2008 Winter Storm • 15” to 20” across portions of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois • Rates up to 2”-3”/ hour • Winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph • Visibilities ¼ mile or less • Brief blizzard conditions • Drifts of 2 to 4 feet • Thunder snow reported • First storm of this magnitude since Blizzard of 1999

  11. Societal Impacts – Feb. 2008 Winter Storm • Roads became impassable, with some counties pulling plow trucks • More than 2,000 vehicles stranded for up to 12 hours on a 20 mile stretch of Interstate 39/90 Uphill section of interstate where traffic jam began

  12. Societal Impacts – Feb. 2008 Winter Storm • State of Emergency for Dane and Rock counties • National Guard mobilized to help stranded motorists • Multiple accidents • One fatality • Airport closures • Including Milwaukee • Milwaukee bus service shut down for weather for the first time since ‘99 blizzard and second time since 1990 • 23 buses stuck in snow drifts at time of closure • Many business closures, including rare mall closures

  13. NWS MKX DSS – Feb. 2008 Winter Storm • Great lead time: 111 hours in HWO…50.5 hours in watch…and 40 hours in warning • Two statewide EM conference calls • Frequent forecast and product updates • Hourly WSW updates during heart of storm • IEM chat utilized • PC Live • PNSs and top news story created with 24-hour snowfall records prior to storm

  14. Lessons Learned • Need for improved situational awareness and communication • Situational awareness displays • Frequent product updates with ongoing details can keep people abreast of quickly changing situations • Continue to expand the way that products and advisories/warnings are disseminated • Understand critical thresholds, and highlight when they might be met

  15. Groundhog Day Blizzard February 1-2, 2011

  16. Storm Facts – Feb. 2011 Blizzard • Third worst snowstorm in Chicago • Passing system Jan 31st, light lake effect snow in between, then The Blizzard Feb 1-2nd (with lake-enhanced snow) • Thundersnow reported • 3-Day Storm Total • Kenosha: 27.3” • Chicago – O’Hare: 21.2” • Milwaukee – Mitchell: 19.8” • Madison Airport: 18.7” • Moline/Quad-City Airport – 18.4” • Rockford Airport: 15.1”

  17. Storm Facts – Feb. 2011 Blizzard • Winds 30-40 mph with peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph • 70 mph Chicago Lakefront • 64 mph Kenosha Airport • 61 mph Chicago-O’Hare Airport • 60 mph Milwaukee-Mitchell Airport • White-out conditions • Snow drifts 3 to 8 feet high, up to 12 feet+

  18. Societal Impacts – Feb. 2011 Blizzard • State of Emergency • Schools dismissed early Tue, Feb 1 and remained closed Wed, with a few still closed through Thu • Including Chicago Public Schools (first time since 1999) • Government buildings closed to the public on Wed • Groundhog Day festivities cancelled • National Guard mobilized • Plows pulled off roads overnight – too dangerous • Civil Danger Warning issued • Lakeshore Drive closed (but not until 8 pm Tue eve) • Interstates Closed (portions)

  19. Societal Impacts – Feb. 2011 Blizzard • Airports essentially closed Tuesday night, limited operations on Wednesday • Rail services severely impacted • Injuries and fatalities due to exposure, heart-attacks while shoveling, and vehicle accidents • Power Outages • At least 200,000 customers lost power during the storm

  20. NWS DSS – Feb. 2011 Blizzard • Well-forecast storm – • HWO mentioned on Fri, Jan 28th • Watch issued Sun, Jan 30th • Warnings issued Mon, Jan 31st and Feb 1st • Web Information • Top News of the Day stories • Multimedia Briefings • “Getting Through the Blizzard” by NWS LOT • Graphical Weather Stories, Nowcasts • Social media • Webinars • WI State-wide webinars • Weather Briefings • Mitchell (MKE) Airport-initiated briefings • GLERL for coastal flooding concerns • WI DOT-initiated briefings • WI online E-Sponder instant message briefings

  21. Bracing for the Storm • Because of our warnings and enhanced decision support services, cities prepared for this blizzard • "Every Chicago resident should brace for a storm that will be remembered for a long time," Jose Santiago, executive director of OEMC, said. "We just have to see what Mother Nature throws at us." • Plows, schools and CTA are bracing for 18-24 inches of snow • Chicago’s full fleet of 274 snow-fighting trucks was dispatched around 2:30 p.m. By 8 p.m., another 120 garbage trucks fitted with plows were expected to be added to combat the expected snow. • Four diesel engines on tracks to remove the snow, plows on front of every train, sleet devices on trains to spray the ice around the rail. “As long as I can keep the trains moving every 15 minutes, we should be able to keep up with the snow being built up on there," said Rich Rodriguez, CTA. • National Guard activated in both WI and IL • Troops available to help stranded motorists on interstates • Stationed at rest areas on highways with supplies (water and snack bars) • Run emergency shelters at armories

  22. Results

  23. How Have We Improved DSS? • Focus on impacts of weather event not just end result • Snowfall rates • Time of day storm will hit • Bulleted headlines • Conveying level of confidence and alternate scenarios • Increased communication and technology • Conference calls • Multimedia briefings • NWS Chat • DSS webpages • Top news stories • Social media • Enhanced aviation services • Anticipate instead of react

  24. The Future of DSS • Remind ourselves that a long lead time means very little if • Key partners are not informed • Information is not being passed along (storm reports, updated headlines, top news stories, etc.) • Public doesn’t take action • Impact based headlines not criteria driven headlines • Use past events to remind users how bad the storm may be • Learn what our users needs are and keep those in mind • What information do they need • How much lead time do they need • Thresholds (amount of snow, snowfall rate, etc.) • Best way to receive products (web, texts, TV, etc.)

  25. The Future of DSS • Work with partners (EMs) to make sure proper action is taken • Include ongoing societal impacts in headlines and/or storm reports • Update headlines as often as possible to reflect changing conditions • Find an effective way to communicate our forecast uncertainty • Some partners do not understand certain forecasts are not a slam dunk

  26. Questions?

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