CEF – Energy Ideology Modeling: Ohio

1. CEF – Energy Ideology Modeling: Ohio King Strategic Communications POC: steve@kscmail.com

2. Initial Goals At the outset of this project, we laid out a plan that aims to accomplish these agenda items: • Identify voters who share our views on an “all of the above” energy solution. • Find voters who are open to considering and becoming active in the fight to put all energy sources in the mix. 
 • Educate policy influencers to consider the economic, political and national security benefits of a diversified approach. 


3. Objectives Completed: • Collected completed surveys from over 14,000 voters in MI & OH • Identified ideological clusters among Conservatives and Conservative-leaning independent voters in both states • Developed predictive modeling to group that set of voters into messaging tracks

4. Toplines Review: • Q1: Thinking about energy policy, which of the following best represents your views: • Press 1 if you believe The use of coal, oil, and natural gas should be rapidly scaled down to prevent a climate change disaster. • Press 2 if you believe in An “All of the Above” solution – which means we must also increase our commitment to renewable energy and energy efficiency. • Press 3 if you believe The government should not regulate where our energy comes from – instead, the free market should be allowed to determine the way our energy is generated.

5. Toplines Review: • Q2: Expanding our use ofrenewable energy in our state will increase job opportunities and stimulate economic growth. • Q3: Climate change is one of the top reasons that we need to increase our reliance on renewable energy. • Q4: To me, being a good steward of the environment is a matter of faith or personal conviction. All questions asked on 1 – 7 scale, where 1 = strongly disagree, and 7 = strongly agree.

6. Toplines Review: • Q5: Expanding our use ofrenewable energy to reduce our reliance on foreign interests is a matter of national security. • Q6: Our state government should set a renewable portfolio standard, where utilities must have a minimum amount of their electricity generated from renewable sources. • Q7: Our state and nation should increase our commitment to clean energy technology through free market solutions, which would mean eliminating government-created electricity monopolies. All questions asked on 1 – 7 scale, where 1 = strongly disagree, and 7 = strongly agree.

7. Method Identifying the Segments: Cluster Analysis Final Model Execution Testing & Refining Prediction Models Data Cleanup & Exploration

8. Clustering Results

9. Cluster 1: “Haters” • Very little agreement with any statement. • Don’t believe in climate change, don’t want clean energy portfolio mandates. • We recommend excluding this group from paid advertising efforts.

10. Cluster 2: “Conservative Conservationists” • This group is generally aggregable to all survey statements. • Differentiated from other clusters by strong belief in climate change, and soft support of clean energy portfolio mandates.

11. Cluster 3: “Energy Patriots” • Highest agreement levels with national security and innovation statements. • Similar to Cluster 2, but does not believe in climate change and is less bullish on government mandated energy portfolios.

12. Cluster Prediction Model: Performance Neural Network Modeling produced the most accurate and actionable results. Using the 32 most-predictive data points in i360, we can predict cluster assignment with greater than 84% accuracy.

13. Usage • Probability scales are available, but using cluster assignment as tags is the easiest option. • Let KSC know if any CEF staff need i360 login credentials. • KSC team is fully available to provide lists, counts, and support in preparing additional presentations.

14. Next Steps: Messaging Copy Ideation Creative Design & Approval Digital Ad Field Testing

15. Questions?