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Anticipated Climate Change Effects in the Pacific Northwest

Anticipated Climate Change Effects in the Pacific Northwest. Acknowledgments. Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific Northwest Research Station Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Chris Ringo, ecology tech team.

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Anticipated Climate Change Effects in the Pacific Northwest

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  1. Anticipated Climate Change Effectsin the Pacific Northwest

  2. Acknowledgments • Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University • Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific Northwest Research Station • Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington • Chris Ringo, ecology tech team

  3. A warming future • Northwest expected to warm 2 degrees C by the 2040s and 3.3 degrees C by the 2080s • Area burned by fire expected to double by 2040s and triple by 2080s • --Climate Impacts Group

  4. The Oceans • Variability in el Nino-la Nina events and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will increase, causing more intense winter storms • Short-term outlook is warmer and wetter • As warming further increases, expect increased summer drought

  5. Snow/Rain Changes • More winter precipitation as rain • Earlier spring melt means lower summer flows • 2 degrees C increase in next 20 years means 25 percent less snowpack • …….a coming water crisis in the West (Barnett et al. 2008)

  6. Vegetation Effects • Initially growth may increase since carbon dioxide has a fertilizer effect • But with prolonged warming some areas will become more water limited, growth will decrease, and fire risk will increase

  7. Vegetation Effects • Tree regeneration may become more difficult on lower elevation sites and better at higher elevations • Whitebark pine will be at high risk of loss due to multiple stressors • Species shifts are likely to be gradual

  8. Recall vulnerability assessment

  9. So how do we predict future vegetation? • Proceed carefully • Neilson and MAPPS group projections • Look at range of possible outcomes rather than specific future

  10. MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution Current Climate CGCM1 Coarse-Level Physiognomic Classification Possible Future Woody Expansion, and Carbon Sequestration

  11. Anticipated changes

  12. Fire Effects • More carbon dioxide, warmer and wetter winters mean more growth and carbon accumulation • If this is followed by pronounced summer droughts, higher risk of fire • This is true Region-wide, but the change will be most pronounced in the west Cascades

  13. Adapt to climate change by preparing for an uncertain future, not a specific one

  14. Advice • Build planning efforts for an uncertain future, not any specific one • We are looking at various possible scenarios and using them to bracket the range of possibilities

  15. Advice • The best climate change strategy is a rigorous , viable restoration policy to make landscapes resilient to a variety of possible futures.

  16. We have to take climate change seriously, not because we know what the future will be, but because we don’t. --The Economist

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