超网络 -- 复杂决策问题中的应用

1. 超网络--复杂决策问题中的应用 董琼 June Dong 上海理工大学 管理学院 超网络中心 School of Business State University of New York at Oswego

2. 网络到处可见 是 我们社会经济生活中的 基本组成部分

3. 复杂决策问题 • 交通问题 • 地面网，高架网 • 不同的管理机构 ，不同的 目标，费用 • 动态

4. 供应链问题 • 交通网 • 信息网 • 金融网 • 人际网 • 知识管理 • 电力管理

5. 特征 • 多重 网络交互影响 • 多种 流量 • 费用是 流量的函数 • 多个决策者，多目标 • 有竞争， 有合作 • 不确定性

6. 供应链概述 制造商 配送中心 第三方物流 配送中心/ 制造商网站 零售商 供应商 顾客 90年代以来，供应链管理对全球经济产生了变革的影响。

7. Customers, demand centers sinks Field Warehouses: stocking points Sources: plants vendors ports Regional Warehouses: stocking points Supply Inventory & warehousing costs Production/ purchase costs Transportation costs Transportation costs Inventory & warehousing costs

8. 供应链各成员在利益、风险方面存在不同程度的冲突，其局部利益和行为经常与系统目标不相吻合，导致系统性能降低和成员收益受损。供应链各成员在利益、风险方面存在不同程度的冲突，其局部利益和行为经常与系统目标不相吻合，导致系统性能降低和成员收益受损。 供应链冲突和后果 供应商 冲突 制造商

9. Conflicting Objectives in the Supply Chain 1. Purchasing • Stable volume requirements • Flexible delivery time • Little variation in mix • Large quantities 2. Manufacturing • Long run production • High quality • High productivity • Low production cost

10. Conflicting Objectives in the Supply Chain 3. Warehousing • Low inventory • Reduced transportation costs • Quick replenishment capability 4. Customers • Short order lead time • High in stock • Enormous variety of products • Low prices

11. 供应链协调必要性 供应商 制造商 协调 设计和使用供应链协调机制，使供应链成员的行为和系统目标统一起来，从而提高供应链整体性能。

12. 供应链 中的网络 • Transportation Networks • Communication Networks • Energy Networks • Knowledge Networks • Financial Networks • Production and Distribution

13. Supply Chain Disruption Ripple Effect • nearly halted production earlier last winter. • Suppliers faced with much smaller incomes in January 2009. • Many of these suppliers manufacturer parts not only for Detroit’s automakers, but for the foreign transplants as well. • So any disruption in the supply chain would have ripple effects throughout the entire auto industry.

14. Toyota has concerns with about 100 suppliers, particularly worried about 20 to 30 within that group. • Toyota is developing workarounds to avoid any problems should one or more suppliers falter.

15. Extended Effect • Pharmaceutical companies are in an extreme shortage of acetonitrile, a common solvent. Why? • Because of • 2008 Summer Olympics • GM • the production of cars dropped significantly • Switch to methanol • Cause shortage in methanol and price increase

16. What is a Supernetwork? A Supernetwork is a network, consisting of nodes, links, and flows, that is overandabove existing networks.

17. Supernetworks: A New Paradigm • Supernetworks may be comprised of such networks as transportation, telecommunication, logistical, and/or financial networks. • They may be multilevel as when they formalize the study of supply chain networks or multitiered as in the case of financial networks with intermediation. • Decision-makers may be faced with multiple criteria; thus, the study of supernetworks also includes the study of multicriteria decision-making.

18. Supernetworks • Provide tools to study interrelated networks • Allow us to apply efficient algorithms for computation • Provide visual aids to see the dynamic changes

19. Supernetworks

20. Supply Chain Supernetworks

21. Characteristics of Today’s Networks • Large-scale nature and complexity of network topology • Congestion Alternative behavior of users of the network, which may lead to paradoxical phenomena • Interactions among networks transportation versus telecommunications networks • Policiessurrounding networks today may have a major impact not only economically but also socially, politically, and security-wise.

22. Network problems also arise in other surprising and fascinating ways for problems, which at first glance and on the surfaces, may not appear to involve networks at all.

23. The study of networks is not limited to only physical networks but also to abstract networks in which nodes do not coincide to locations in space.

24. The Advantages of a Network Formalism: • many of present-day problems are concerned with flows (material, human, capital, information, etc.) over space and time and, hence, ideally suited as an application domain for network theory; • provides a graphical or visual depiction of different problems;

25. The Advantages of a Network Formalism: • helps to identify similarities and differences in distinct problems through their underlying network structure; • enables the application of efficient network algorithms; • allows for study of disparate problems through a unifying methodology

26. Decision Making • Centralized • System Optimal • Decentralized • User Optimal Competition • Equilibrium vs. Optimal solution

27. Interdisciplinary Impact of Networks Finance and Economics Engineering Energy Manufacturing Telecommunications Transportation Interregional Trade General Equilibrium Industrial Organization Portfolio Optimization Flow of Funds Accounting Networks Environmental Networks Sustainability Issues Environmental Science

28. Applications of Supernetworks • Telecommuting/Commuting Decision-Making • Teleshopping/Shopping Decision-Making • Supply Chain Networks with Electronic Commerce • Financial Networks with Electronic Transactions • Social Networks and Supply Chain Networks • Electricity Supply Networks • Traffic Assignment with Environment concerns • ….

29. 新近的工作 • 供应链经济 • 网络有效性，鲁棒性 指标