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พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย

พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย. เวที วิเคราะห์นโยบายพลังงาน 11 มกราคม 2548 Chris Greacen Palang Thai www.palangthai.org. Outline. Overview of Thai government targets and planned policies for renewable energy Renewable energy potential Power sector planning process

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พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย

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  1. พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทยพลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย เวทีวิเคราะห์นโยบายพลังงาน 11 มกราคม 2548 Chris Greacen Palang Thai www.palangthai.org

  2. Outline • Overview of Thai government targets and planned policies for renewable energy • Renewable energy potential • Power sector planning process • Integrated resource planning (IRP)

  3. TE 11% พลังงาน NRE เชิงพาณิชย์ 8% (6,668 KTOE) % 81 นโยบายการพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทน TE = Traditional Energy NRE = New & Renewable Energy (265 ktoe) 2545 52,939 KTOE Cabinet resolution Sept. 2, 2003 2554 83,354 KTOE 2554 81,753 KTOE

  4. Electricity 1,170 KTOE Should be 3000 MW เป้าหมายและกลยุทธ์พลังงานทดแทน • RPS 437 MW • - Solar 200 MW • Wind 100 MW • MSW 100 MW • - Biomass • - Hydro INCENTIVE 37 MW Electricity Solar 6 MW Wind 0.2 MW Biomass 560 MW RPS Incentive 1,093 MW -Biomass -Hydro RE 8% Heat ~ 0.00 KTOE RE 0.5% Heat (Incentive) 3,900 KTOE Bio fuel ~ 0.00 KTOE Bio Fuel(Incentive) 1,600 KTOE Ethanol 3.0 M liter/day Bio diesel2.4 M liter/day R & D Facilitator 2002 2011 Replacement of imported oil 48mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht

  5. TE 11% พลังงาน NRE เชิงพาณิชย์ 8% (6,668 KTOE) % 81 Most TE is heat TE = Traditional Energy NRE = New & Renewable Energy (265 ktoe) 2545 52,939 KTOE Possibility that TE heat is “repackaged” as NRE heat Most NRE is heat 2554 83,354 KTOE

  6. การผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานทดแทนการผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานทดแทน จาก 8% ของการใช้พลังงานทดแทน, กำหนดให้มีการผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานทดแทน = ~2,090 MW ในปี 2554 มาตรการ RPS กำหนดให้โรงไฟฟ้าใหม่ ดำเนินการ Solar Wind MSW(ขยะ) 430 MW Biomass Hydro 1530 MW* (+560 MW) Biomass Small Hydro Solar Home System SPP • มาตรการจูงใจและสนับสนุน • กำหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้า • เงินกู้ดอกเบี้ยต่ำ • ลดภาษี 1100 MW MSW=Municipal Solid Waste * Existing SPP 560 MW

  7. มาตรการ RPS • Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS): obligates each retail seller of electricity to include in its resource portfolio a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy resources. • The retailer can either: • (a) owning a renewable energy facility and producing its own power, or • (b) purchasing power from someone else's facility. • RPS rules can allow retailers to "trade" their obligation.

  8. Concerns about Thai RPS • In other countries, RPS requires functioning wholesale market • Needs independent regulator • RPS favors large developers over small • RPS has mixed track record • In Thai version, only applies to new fossil generation. • Ties new renewable development to development of fossil generation • Big hydro exempted from obligations • In Thai version obligation based on MW rather than GWh encourages gaming See more at: http://www.palangthai.org/en/docs/sustain.pdf

  9. กำหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้า (Feed-in tariff) • Paid per kWh of electricity generated • a guaranteed power sales price • a guaranteed market (electric utilities must take) • Favors smaller renewable energy producers • Simple • Less prone to cheating

  10. German feed-in tariffs decrease every year Solar declines 5% per year for new projects

  11. German feed-in tariffs (not showing solar PV) Biomass declines 1% per year Wind declines 1.5% per year

  12. Ethanol 1,000 KTOE (90% gasoline, 10% ethanol) พลังงานทดแทน ที่มียุทธศาสตร์ชัดเจน Biofuel 1,600 KTOE Biodiesel 600 KTOE 98% diesel, 2% biodiesel

  13. Small Hydro 700 MW Solar >5,000 MW Biomass 7,000 MW Wind 1,600 MW NRE Potential in Thailand High Potential Low Development Peak consumption = 19,000 MW

  14. Wind Energy Potential Map Average speed 4.4 - 6.4m/sec Power Potential 1,600 MW

  15. Biomass Potential Major agricultural residues in 2002/2003 Rice husk 5.5 M tons/yr Power potential 560 MW Bagasse 20 M tons/yr Power potential 1400 MW Rhizomes 1.6 M tons/yr Power potential 110 MW 1900 MW? 1200 MW?

  16. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas • Uses waste water from cassava to make methane • Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity • Earns high market returns • Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800 MW from wet cake

  17. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas • 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators

  18. Energy conservation potential • DSM • 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective DSM” in 1991 (Utility study) • IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991. Demand Side Management for Thailand’s Electric Power System: Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand. November.

  19. Cogeneration potential • Cogeneration • 8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001 • http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html • Since 1998, utilities accepting no new cogen. At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.

  20. Planning • Conventional approach • Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) • Risk

  21. Conventional planning approach • Demand forecast – determined by committee comprising mainly government (EPPO), and utilities (EGAT,MEA, PEA) • Power Development Plan (PDP) -- Developed by EGAT.

  22. Conventional approach step #1: Demand forecasts (vs. actual demand)

  23. Conventional planning problems Process Problem • Citizens and consumers have no role in decisions • No consideration of alternatives: • Renewables • DSM • Cogeneration • No accountability to ensure that the plan is appropriate or least-cost EGAT Peak demand +15% reserve = minimum generating capacity Specify new generators & transmission (PDP)Only considers gas/coal/big hydro Ministry of Energy endorses plan NEPC Approve Cabinet Acknowledge

  24. Conventional approach step #2: Power development plan Generation capacity = peak demand + 15%

  25. Problems • Little transparency • Little accountability • Little participation • No consideration of alternatives • DSM • Cogeneration • Renewables

  26. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) – a way forward? • Integrated Resource Planning (IRP or least cost planning) has origins in the 1980’s. • Widely implemented by many utilities, especially in USA • The principle of IRP is that customers do not actually need kWh, instead they require the services that are provided by electricity: “warm houses, light, and cold beer”.

  27. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) – what is it? • Services can either be met by building new power plants, or by increasing efficiency of use. • IRP is a systematic planning framework to meet consumers needs for energy services in a way that best meets multiple objectives for resource use • Requires consideration of energy demand, energy supply, environment, costs, and other factors all together • An integrated resource plan states a utility’s preferred strategy for meeting consumers’ needs over the long term—for example, 20 years • Goal of IRP: develop plans to meet energy needs of society efficiently, and at lowest possible cost

  28. Challenge… • How to strategically push planning to include: • Greater transparency, accountability, and participation (TAP) • Real inclusion of alternatives in ways that address risk and environmental benefits of these technologies • DSM • Renewables • Cogen

  29. For more information Contact: Tel. 02-674-2533 chris@palangthai.org www.palangthai.org Download this presentation at: http://www.palangthai.org/docs/index

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