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Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise

CHAPTER 1:. Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise. Layout of the Book. Part 1: overview of problem solving/decision making Part 2. Empiricism. Light on stats, more on JDM Part 3. Decision making Part 4. Influence and group decision making.

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Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise

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  1. CHAPTER 1: Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes:Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise

  2. Layout of the Book Part 1: overview of problem solving/decision making Part 2. Empiricism. Light on stats, more on JDM Part 3. Decision making Part 4. Influence and group decision making

  3. Terminology • Problem • Problem solving • Decision • Decision making • Judgment

  4. The Problem Space

  5. Navigating The Problem Space

  6. Deliberative Method • State, or “frame,” the problem to be solved; • Identify and prioritize the relevant values, interests and objectives; • Identify and resolve major uncertainties concerning the cause of the problem; • Generate a range of plausible solutions or alternative courses of action; • Predict the consequences of the courses of action and assess their impact on the relevant interests or objectives. • Select the course of action that optimizes the interests or objectives to be served (i.e., make a decision); • Implement, observe and learn from the outcome of the decision.

  7. Evers v. Newport Records • Anna Wilkins, associate. Luis Trujillo partner • Represent Clyde Evers in breach of contract case • Evers sold custom accounting software to Newport Records for $600,000. • Newport refuses to pay, saying that the software does not do what Evers said it would do. •  Evers upset that nothing had happened since the case was filed. Asks Anna to hasten its resolution. Wilkins: • Contract disclaims any warranty of performance. -> Proposes summary judgment.

  8. Evers v. Newport Records (con’d) Trujillo • Judge skeptical about summary judgment.   • Evers may have made extravagant oral representations. Even if not formally binding, they may bias the judge further against summary judgment. • Written disclaimer is not in the particular typeface required by law. Judge may have the jury determine whether or not the Newport’s president actually read and understood the disclaimer. • Newport may have a claim against Evers for breach of warranty. The statute of limitations on Newport’s claim—which is shorter than that governing Evers’ claim—is about to run out. Evers’ motion may lead Newport’s lawyer to wake up and file a claim. •  Cost of litigating the motion for summary judgment. • If the motion is denied, Evers’ costs will be increased. • If the motion is granted, Newport Records will likely appeal, with attendant costs and the possibility of still having to go to trial.

  9. Divergent and Convergent Aspect of Deliberative Problem Solving

  10. What’s Unusual About This Hand?

  11. The two-systems model of information processing System 1 (intuitive) System 2 (reflective) Process Characteristics Automatic Controlled Effortless Effortful Associative Deductive Rapid, parallel Slow, serial Process opaque Self-aware Skilled action Rule application Content on which Processes Act Affective Neutral Causal properties Statistics Concrete, specific Abstract Prototypes Sets

  12. Bat and Ball • Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10 • The bat costs a dollar more than the ball How much does the ball cost?

  13. Bat and Ball • Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10 • The bat costs a dollar more than the ball • How much does the ball cost? • $1.05 (bat) + $0.05 (ball) = $1.10 • We know how to calculate the right answer, but sometimes the answer that “jumps to mind” slips out.

  14. Heuristics Mental shortcuts used in judgment and decision making Fast and efficient Serve us well most of the time… but not always

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