Transition Patterns & Risks of School Leavers in Europe

1. Transition Patterns & Risksof School Leavers in Europe How institutions & policies shape the integration of young people into the labour market

2. Relevance for Policy and Research • tackling youth unemployment is one issue of the European Employment Strategy • several indicators (mostly based on rates & stocks) • indicators according to the TLM approach • „crisis“ of the German dual system of apprenticeship • research gaps: • no systematic comparison of the whole period of labour market integration • only single events were examined (= transition from work to unemployment and vice versa) Christian Brzinsky-Fay

3. Research Questions • Are there distinct labour market patterns of school leavers? • How country-specific are they? • Is there an impact of apprenticeships on employment history? • What are the preconditions for labour market patterns? • What is the impact of a particular school-to-work transition on other variables (income, unemployment risks, further training participation etc.) • [...] Christian Brzinsky-Fay

4. Definitions • population: people < 25 years • period of labour market integration begins after leaving school • labour market integration should be finished after 3 years • apprenticeship  education • „good“ integration = working at least 18 month within the first 3 years after leaving school Christian Brzinsky-Fay

5. 2. sort patterns Optimal Matching(Sequence Analysis) Regression Models Cluster Analysis 3. associate patternsto other variables Research Design 1. examine patterns Christian Brzinsky-Fay

6. Optimal Matching – Overview • explorative method to find differences (=distances) between sequences, e.g. employment patterns • advantages: • no experimental design neccessary • analysis of heterogeneous, differentiated sequences • no need for ex-ante-definitions • disadvantages: • no confirmatory method Christian Brzinsky-Fay

7. Optimal Matching – Technique • definition of replacement and insert/deletion costs • pairwise comparison of sequences • minimizing transformation costs • standardisation of sequences with different length • matrix with minimal pairwise distances • (grouping distances) Christian Brzinsky-Fay

8. replacement costs: 1 indel costs: 1 B E A T L E S S T O N E S ------------- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 = 7 7 / 7 = 1 B E A T L E S - S T O N E S ------------- 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 = 5 5 / 7 = 0,71 replacement costs: 1 indel costs: 1 U U W W W W A A A A W W W W W ----------------- 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 = 7 7/9 = 0,78 - - - U U W W W W A A A A W W W W W ----------------- 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 = 5 5/9 = 0,56 Optimal Matching – Example Christian Brzinsky-Fay

9. GER A W F U W UK U W U W U female W I Ideal Types of Sequence Clusters(Hypotheses) Christian Brzinsky-Fay

10. 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 A N = 2830 B N = 3307 C N = 2213 D N = 2093 E N = 1880 F N = 1758 Dataset(s) Christian Brzinsky-Fay

11. Left Censorship • excluded are… • …people that worked before 1993, • (… people that started working younger than they were in 1993) • …people who stopped education before 1993 • …those who changed the country between 1993-2000 Christian Brzinsky-Fay

12. Covariates • micro-level factors age – gender – education – work experience – duration of UE – children • macro-level factors • institutional variables apprenticeship system – employment protection – low benefit coverage • policy-related variables ALMP Christian Brzinsky-Fay

13. Remaining Questions/Problems • strengths/weaknesses of indicator „labour market pattern“ • other covariates than usual ones to explain appearance of particular patterns • un-normal distribution of sequence number • statuses are only one-dimensional Christian Brzinsky-Fay

14. Christian Brzinsky-Fay