Mars: On the Path or In The Way?

1. Mars: On the Path or In The Way? Brent Sherwood brent.sherwood@jpl.nasa.gov GLEX, May 2012 The Space Show, July 24, 2012 FISO, August 1, 2012

2. HSF ≠ Exploration Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

3. Explore Mars: A Refractory Meme von Braun, 1948 – Das MarsProjekt Kennedy, 1961 – U.S. to the Moon Success, twisted – The means or the end? Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

4. Why Can’t Mars Be Like Apollo? A lot has changed in half a century… Technical: Better grip on magnitude of the challenge Financial: More realism about what space stuff costs Budget: NASA spending power half the Apollo peak Society: Space is not today’s “final frontier” Exploration: Accelerating return from robotic missions By the time humans could step onto Mars, what would it mean for them to “explore?” Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

5. 1. Technical Challenge: Unpredictable Cost Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

6. 2 & 3. Finance & Budget: Also Unpredictable Explore Mars Today: $1011 over 3-4 decades By mid-century: ?? ISS 1984: $1010 over a decade Actuals: $1011 over three NASA HSF investment is $1010 per year A given for the next four decades? Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

7. 4. Society: a Few of Today’s Frontiers Genetic engineering Nanotechnology Artificial intelligence Networks Sustainable energy Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

8. 5. Exploration: Another 30 Years Raise the Bar Presence at Mars is now continuous Robotic mission longevity routinely exceeds design life Resolution, sensitivity, data volume, flexibility all increasing Scientific results now go beyond simple discovery Insight is increasingly synoptic in space and time Missions are programmatically sequenced, focused on MSR Investigations culminate in questions about life Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

9. Exploration: Robotic Return Accelerating Mars Orbital Missions Mars Surface Missions Data Returned (GB) Data Returned (GB) Prime mission only. +20 GB/2yr thereafter Publications, Major Journals Publications, Major Journals MSL MGS MRO MERs Vikings Vikings Phoenix Odyssey Mariner 4 Mariner 9 Pathfinder Mariner 6.7

10. 1960 • 20 images, 1% coverage Mars not like Earth… • First reprogrammable computer • 200 images, 20% coverage Mariner 4 First flyby …but neither like the Moon 1970 • 1-yr lifetime • 7300 images, 80% coverage Mariner 6,7 Dual flyby Enormous geological features, dynamic planet Mariner 9 First orbiter • 4-yr lifetime (orbiter) • 52,000 images, 97% coverage • Soft landing, orbital data relay Dynamic conditions and surface conditions measured. Mars was very different in ancient past. No apparent life signs. Viking 1,2 First landers 1980 • 10-yr lifetime • Aerobraking • Data > sum of previous missions 3-D topography maps. Daily and seasonal weather patterns. Regions rich in water-formed minerals. Active geology today, possibly water-related. • 84-sol lifetime • 2.3 Mb, >17,000 images • Dual-viewer, stereo images • Contact mineralogy 1990 Diverse rock types/composition. Dust extremely fine. Mars likely warmer, wetter in distant past. Radiation in low Mars orbit 2x that in LEO. Global mineralogy to 1-m depth. Ancient floods. Vast regions with subsurface ice. • >11-yr lifetime (still active) • Data > sum of previous missions Global survey First rover MGS, Pathfinder 2000 • 9-yr surface life (still active) • 8 and 35-km traverses • Sub-weathered contact mineralogy • Radar to 5-km depth (from orbit) Odyssey Global survey 2 Proof of long-standing water in the past. Profiles of layered subsurface ice deposits. Motion pictures of transient phenomena (dust devils). MER, MARSIS Surface exploration MRO Global mapping Phoenix Polar surface/ice 2010 Detailed surface images anywhere needed. Engineering images of entry systems on surface. Multiple investigations of historical role of water. Discovery of lava tube skylights. • 7-yr surface life (still active) • 161 Tb of data so far • 30 cm/pixel imaging MSL Habitability Volatiles over time MAVEN 2020 • 150-sol surface life • North polar region site • Onboard wet chemistry lab • Soil grain microscopy Proof of ice beneath thin regolith cover. Perchlorate. 2030 “Follow the water” “Search for life signs” Proposed return of samples to Earth 2040 Propose more samples returned? Prepare for humans?

11. Human Exploration? • Hopping and driving around, and taking photos, won’t cut it • What is exploration when every rock is already mapped? • Robotic discovery of evidence of life in the interim? • An unmanageable wild card against which to bet 40 years and $1011 People can figure this out – why should we be surprised that the support we need isn’t there? Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

12. Three Other Options for HSF Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

13. Self Determination • NASA is not required to Explore Mars • Not by U.S. National Space Policy • Not by U.S. Law • Not even by NASA’s own Strategic Goals • Our rationale for Explore Mars is weak • Largely self-referential • Explore Mars does not uniquely satisfy what we say is important • In the end, we will get what we earn • Perhaps we should quit whining and design our product for success Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

14. Policy: Uniquely Explore Mars? National Space Policy, 2010 • Energize competitive domestic industries • Expand international cooperation • Strengthen stability in space • Increase assurance and resilience of mission-essential functions • Pursue human and robotic initiatives • Improve space-based Earth and solar observation Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

15. The Law – Uniquely Explore Mars? NASA Authorization Act, Section 202, 2010 • LONG TERM GOAL • The long term goal of the human space flight and exploration efforts of NASA shall be to expand permanent human presence beyond low-Earth orbitand to do so, where practical, in a manner involving international partners. • KEY OBJECTIVES • The key objectives of the United States for human expansion into space shall be: • to sustain the capability for long-duration presence in low-Earth orbit, initially through continuation of the ISS … and through assisting and enabling an expanded commercial presence … as elements of a LEO infrastructure; • to determine if humans can live in an extended manner in space with decreasing reliance on Earth, starting with utilization of low-Earth orbit infrastructure, to identify potential roles that space resources such as energy and materials may play, to meet national and global needs and challenges … and to explore the viability of and lay the foundation for sustainable economic activities in space; • to maximize the role that human exploration of space can play in advancing overall knowledge of the universe, supporting United States national and economic security and the United States global competitive posture, and inspiring young people in their educational pursuits; and • to build upon the cooperative and mutually beneficial framework established by the ISS partnership agreements and experience. Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

16. NASA Strategy –Uniquely Explore Mars? NASA Strategic Goals • Extend and sustain human activities across the solar system • Expand scientific understanding of the Earth and the universe in which we live • Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future • Advance aeronautics research for societal benefit • Enable program and institutional capabilities to conduct NASA’s aeronautics and space activities • Share NASA with the public, educators, and students to provide opportunities to participate in our mission, foster innovation, and contribute to a strong national economy. Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

17. Self-Made Do Loop?NASA’s “History of Human Space Exploration” Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

18. Self-Licking Ice Cream Cone?ISECG Goals • Perform Science to support human exploration • Develop exploration technologies and capabilities • Engage the public in exploration • Search for life • Extend human presence • Perform space, Earth, and applied science • Stimulate economic expansion • Enhance Earth safety Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

19. Rationale, or Rationalization? Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

20. A Real Roadmap Shows Detours • Commercial Investment • Space • passenger travel • Orbital • resort hotels • Settle the Moon • Industrialize GEO • Demonstrate SPS scale-up • Demonstrate end-to-end SPS • Develop space flight • Demonstrate space habitation • Expand HSF into GEO • Explore the solar system • Government Investment Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

21. Formula for a Vibrant HSF Future • Stop wondering what is wrong with people who don’t care about what matters to us • Recognize that the world has moved on in the half century we have been peddling the same dream • Stop asserting that HSF is essential for finding life on Mars • Stop expecting $1010 per year of (only) public investment • Design the HSF product for success • To attract private capital • To solve genuine problems • To be central to society moving forward • Have the right debate • Which unaffordable destination… • …or what we could really do for humanity? Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

22. Urban Geography from GEO Singapore Jakarta Shanghai Kolkata Bangkok Mumbai Fukuoka Hanoi Delhi Xi’an Karachi Beijing Manila Seoul Dubai Vladivostok Tehran Moscow Riyadh Tokyo Mecca Melbourne Jerusalem Cairo Sydney Istanbul Helsinki Cape Town Vienna Rome Munich Auckland Geneva Lagos 180° International Date Line 0° Prime Meridian London Glasgow Lisbon Casablanca Dakar Freetown Honolulu Reykjavik Anchorage Sao Paolo Nuuk Rio de Janeiro Vancouver Buenos Aires Caracas Phoenix Boston San Francisco Las Vegas Los Angeles Denver Atlanta Chicago Houston Washington Mexico City Panama City San Salvador Detroit New York Toronto Calgary

23. The View from GEO