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ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia

ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia. Fragile and debt laden western economies Eurozone crisis Little agreement on where the global economy is headed How to predict Advertising Expenditure in future years?. Forecasts for 79 markets over 31 years

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ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia

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  1. ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia

  2. Fragile and debt laden western economies Eurozone crisis Little agreement on where the global economy is headed How to predict Advertising Expenditure in future years?

  3. Forecasts for 79 markets over 31 years • Dedicated central team • 15 leading forecasts and guides published every year • Tracked crashes and resurgences • Underlying trends to share today

  4. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPEND EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend 2. Economic growth and the ad market 3. Global ad market rankings 4. Potential growth categories in Russia

  5. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPEND EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend 2. Economic growth and the ad market 3. Global ad market rankings 4. Growth potential of key categories

  6. STOCK MARKET CRASHES THIS SUMMER Source: ZenithOptimedia

  7. DOES A STOCK MARKET CRASH MEAN A DROP IN ADSPEND?

  8. STOCK MARKET CRASHES SOMETIMES PRECEDE ADVERTISING DOWNTURNS Asian financial crisis Source: ZenithOptimedia

  9. BUT THEY ARE NOT BY THEMSELVES A RELIABLE INDICATOR Source: ZenithOptimedia

  10. DOES A STOCK MARKET CRASH MEAN A DROP IN ADSPEND? A crash in stock market values does not by itself mean ad expenditure is about to decline Causal Connections: ...when an overvalued stock market is supporting excessive advertising ...if the market correctly anticipates a sharp downturn in global economic activity

  11. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend 2. Economic growth and the ad market 3. Global ad market rankings 4. Growth potential of key categories

  12. LATEST GDP FORECASTS % growth in GDP Source: Adjusted IMF

  13. ADSPEND GROWTH vs GDP GROWTH: GLOBAL Strong correlation between GDP and Adspend Other factors: new technology, intensity of competition Source: ZenithOptimedia

  14. ADSPEND GROWTH vs GDP GROWTH: RUSSIA Russia more volatile, with larger swings.. ..but the same correlation applies Source: ZenithOptimedia

  15. GLOBAL ADVERTISING SHRINKING AS % OF GDP Dot com bubble Source: ZenithOptimedia

  16. AD EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP BY REGION (2011) Source: ZenithOptimedia

  17. RUSSIA: ADVERTISING TRENDING BACK UP AS % GDP Source: ZenithOptimedia

  18. GLOBAL ADSPEND AND GDP GROWTHYEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES Assumes European and US growth remains weak, but not in recession Adspend growth lags GDP on global basis Source: ZenithOptimedia, IMF

  19. RUSSIAN ADSPEND AND GDP GROWTHYEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES Assumes Russia GDP growth well ahead of Developed markets Adspend growth ahead of GDP Source: ZenithOptimedia, IMF

  20. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPENDEXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend 2. Economic growth and the ad market 3. Global ad market rankings 4. Growth potential of key categories

  21. ADSPEND GROWTH BY REGION (2013 v 2010)YEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES Russia growing from 1.5% - 2.3% of total global Adspend Source: ZenithOptimedia

  22. TOP 10 ADVERTISING MARKETS US$ million, current prices Source: ZenithOptimedia

  23. GLOBAL ADSPEND SHARE BY MEDIUM 2013 2010 Source: ZenithOptimedia

  24. ADSPEND SHARE BY MEDIUM - RUSSIA 2013 2010 Source: ZenithOptimedia

  25. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend 2. Economic growth and the ad market 3. Global ad market rankings 4. Growth potential of key categories

  26. FMCG OVERTAKEN BY OTHER CATEGORIES AS MARKETS DEVELOP AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - USA Source: ZenithOptimedia

  27. FMCG OVERTAKEN BY OTHER CATEGORIES AS MARKETS DEVELOP AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - USA Source: ZenithOptimedia

  28. RUSSIA STILL DOMINATED BY FMCG, THOUGH OTHER CATEGORIES ARE GROWING AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - RUSSIA Source: ZenithOptimedia

  29. HUGE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF NON-FMCG CATEGORIES AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - 2010 Finance, auto and telecoms: 21.1% Finance, auto and telecoms: 65.0% Source: ZenithOptimedia

  30. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA 1. Stock market crashes don’t always mean Adspend decline 2. Economic growth is closely tied tothe ad market 3. Russia Adspend will grow faster than Developed markets and join the Top Ten 4. Growth potential of major new categories is likely to grow Adspend even faster

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