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What is an Expert?

What is an Expert?. Experts in “objective” fields. What about more “subjective” fields?. Mutual Fund Managers. 1984 – 1999 9 0% under-performed indices!. Psychologists. In survey of 81 studies of predictions of behavior - Trainees did somewhat better than lay people

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What is an Expert?

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  1. What is an Expert?

  2. Experts in “objective” fields

  3. What about more “subjective” fields?

  4. Mutual Fund Managers 1984 – 1999 90% under-performed indices!

  5. Psychologists In survey of 81 studies of predictions of behavior - Trainees did somewhat better than lay people - Ph. D’s did no better than trainees

  6. Experts Always Agree!

  7. Consensus Values Weather Forecasters .95 Auditors .76 Pathologists .55 Livestock Judges .50 Clinical Psychologists .40 Stockbrokers .32

  8. Economists on federal stimulus Expert witnesses in Mitchell trial

  9. Consistency Values Weather Forecasters .98 Livestock Judges .96 Auditors .90 Pathologists .50 Clinical Psychologists .44 Stockbrokers .40

  10. The Seer-Sucker Theory J. Scott Armstrong Technology Review June/July 1980

  11. So What Good Are Experts?

  12. Multiple Solution Model from Why Do Experts Disagree? Risk Behaviour and Risk Management in Business Life by James Shanteau Director, Institute for Social & Behavorial Research Kansas State University

  13. In the world of human interaction • Problems are considerably more complex • Must deal with multiple, constantly changing variables

  14. As an Expert: • Have some level of experience • Recognize patterns and find consistencies • Clarify issues • “Make sense out of chaos” • Help client identify values and goals

  15. Assist Clients to: • Recognize that there are usually several paths to the identified goal • Clarify thinking by offering experience and insights • Consider options and consequences in clear and comprehensible fashion

  16. Important for all to understand: • Expert’s role is to offer insights and observations • Client’s role is to chooses and implement final choices

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