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The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark

The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark. Volker Klotz IER Universität Stuttgart. Outline. The Impact Pathway Approach: basic principle of EcoSenseWeb The EcoSense Model Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling

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The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark

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  1. The EcoSenseWeb integrated modelFirst CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark Volker Klotz IER Universität Stuttgart

  2. Outline • The Impact Pathway Approach: basic principle of EcoSenseWeb • The EcoSense Model • Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling • Regional scale (European scale) modelling • Local scale modelling • Hemispheric scale modelling • Additional impacts, additional EcoSenseWeb-Modules • Results

  3. Differences of Physical Impacts Pollutant / Noise Emission Transport and Chemical Transformation Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1 Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

  4. Background Concentration of PPM2.5 [µg/m3] Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in Egypt

  5. Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3] – 1000 t in Egypt

  6. Population Distribution

  7. Quantification of Impacts and Costs relation between pressure and impact Concentration Response Function (CRF): Example: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10-5· DPPM2.5 · Population Number of additional Years of Life Lost [YOLL] in Egypt due to 1000 ton emission of PPM2.5 = 748 in the Northern Hemisphere = 53 in Western Europe < 0.5

  8. YOLL  Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5

  9. Differences of Physical Impacts Pollutant/Noise Emission Transport and Chemical Transformation MonetaryValuation Impact Pathway Approach Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

  10. Quantification of Impacts and Costs Exposure Response Function: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10-5· DSulfate · Population Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due to one year operation : 748 YOLL Monetary value40,000 Euro2005per Year of Life Lost 748 YOLL x 40000 €/YOLL = Damage costs per year:29.2 Million Euro2005

  11. Outline EcoSense • EcoSense is designed for carrying out impact assessments • with a consistent standard (ExternE Impact Pathway approach - CRF, monetary values) • with little data requirements (dispersion models, meteorology, receptor data) • for all European countries (incl. extension). • Calculations can be performed on three spatial scales: • Local scale • Regional scale • North hemispheric scale • Only the emission data of the source is needed to perform calculations Coverage of EcoSenseWeb

  12. Regional atmospheric dispersion modelling • Regional modelling with a parameterized EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO  Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for EU25 SR-matrix:  concentration increment in each grid cell per unit of emission • Intention: estimation of impacts and damages on European scale • More appropriate dispersion models for country scale may exist but EcoSense is designed to make calculations for all European countries. • Ongoing improvement: Coupling of the Eulerian dispersion modell Polyphemus with EcoSenseWeb  detailed calculations feasable.

  13. Example regional model: Delta concentraion of Sulfate due to the emission of 1 t SO2 in South-Germany

  14. Local atmospheric dispersion modelling Intention: estimation of impacts and damages close to the emission source (50 km around the source) Example ISC ST (Gaussian) model results for: • Athens area • Stack height: 50m • Stack Temp: 332°K • Emission rate: 2.5g/s • Exit velocity: 1.7m/s • Stack diameter: 2m SO2 annual average Local meteorology needed to perform ISC ST  EcoSenseWeb includes a meteorological data generator

  15. Local Modelling: Meteorological data generator Example: Athens • Calculates for a selected point in Europe the specific meteorological data •  Input for the local ISC-ST model

  16. Northern hemispheric atmospheric dispersion model Example: Conc. increment due to NOx Emission in N.America Intention: rough estimation of impacts and damages in the northern hemisphere Hemispheric modelling with EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO  Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for Emissions in Europe, North America, Far East, Middle East, and Russia. SR-Matrices for Emissions in North African countries. sec. particles (ug/m3)

  17. Further impacts considered in EcoSenseWeb • Loss of biodiversity • due to landuse change • due to acidification and eutrophication • Assessment of external costs of GHG emissions • Marginal damage costs • Marginal abatement costs • Assessment of external costs due to radio nuclide emissions

  18. Aggregated results per SO2 & PPM2.5 – all sectors; 2010; average meteorology

  19. Aggregated results - comparison HH ... Human health BioDiv ... Damages on biodiversity due to acidification and eutrophication 2010, 2020 ... Different reference emission scenarios

  20. Contact / Links: • Methodology: http:\\www.ExternE.info • EcoSenseWeb: http:\\ecosenseweb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de • Contact person: Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de

  21. Annex....

  22. Impacts included (I)

  23. Impacts included (II)

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