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Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

Climate variability, climate change and agriculture. Variability/Change?. Many African societies are well-adapted to the climate variability to which they are exposed

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Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

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  1. Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

  2. Variability/Change? • Many African societies are well-adapted to the climate variability to which they are exposed • This variability is a good proxy for risks associated with future climate change, provided that the rate of change is sufficiently slow (Mortimore, 1998, Brooks and Adger, 2003)

  3. Inter-annual variability - Zimbabwe 1980-2004 Source – Thomas & Matsikwa (2004)

  4. Dealing with variability • Identification of response strategies • Availability of Climate information • Historical data and response strategies • Community/indigenous knowledge • Forecasts of differing scale, skill, time frames • Trials (and error)

  5. DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE • Crop planning • Reservoir planning • Land management • Capital investments • Crop management • Water allocation • Input costs/planning • Irrigation scheduling • Operations planning • Time management

  6. Monthly forecast – 1-3 lead time Precipitation Forecast July 2006 % of Normal www. gfcsa.net

  7. 20 55 37 35 80 63 45 Terminology  = 237 mm • Normal (237 +/- 10% = 210-260 mm) • Above Normal (above 260mm) • Below Normal (below 210mm) • % of normal predicted: 80% = 168mm 60% = 126mm 40% = 84mm • 40-60% of normal = 84-126mm • 100-120% of normal = 237-284mm

  8. OND 2006 Precipitation forecast (%of Normal) Seasonal forecasts? • 3 month regional scale projections produced for 1,2,3 month lead times

  9. User responses - Reliability • Accuracy – will it be correct? Probability/likely/confidence? • Skill – how often will a forecast be correct? • Scale – usefulness? • Consistency – will the forecast for a particular month change? • Will I be able to interpret it?

  10. Not enough information! • What will the ENSO event mean? • Delayed onset? • Dry months? • Hot temperatures? • Which crops are more susceptible? • Worst and best case scenarios… • Typical responses in analogue years..

  11. Seasonal rainfall…

  12. Climate Change • Longer term • More extremes • Changes in variability • Different coping skills? • Long term changes in pests, seasonal lengths, water availability

  13. Agricultural response • Hedging opportunities and strategies • Diversification of crops/cultivars • Planting/fertilising strategy • Market/climate conditions/food prices • Weather forecast creativity….?

  14. Farmer Issues on Adaptation to Climate Change • Can farmers who are adapting prioritise beyond their own experience? • can they think out of the box? • or does some top-down advice have to be offered? • Climate change is a special case within interacting drivers of change on the livelihoods of farmers • Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change means a focus on vulnerability reduction • for this we need to seek multiple responses

  15. LIMITS TO ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE • Unsuitable soils PHYSICAL • Lack of water LIMITS ADAPTATION FEASIBILITY FINANCIAL i.e. Adjustment to LIMITS LIMITS altered circumstances • Physically feasible but politically, socially or environmentally difficult CAPACITY LIMITS • Capacity of organisations • Capacity of individuals After Arnell (2005)

  16. Things to chew over.. • Can we make forecasts even more useful? • Are tailored agricultural forecasts feasible? • Do we have the required institutional capacity and skills? • Will climate change projection information fit seamlessly into the dissemination networks that exist?

  17. Thank You

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