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Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care

Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care. August 17, 2007. LTC Expenditures Florida. Trends in Aging & Long-Term Care. Number of aged will continue to grow Increases in retirement age and favorable dependency ratios

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Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care

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  1. Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care August 17, 2007

  2. LTC Expenditures Florida

  3. Trends in Aging & Long-Term Care • Number of aged will continue to grow • Increases in retirement age and favorable dependency ratios • Favorable long-term care nursing home utilization trends expected to carry for another 25 years • Improved health and lower disability rates • Lower rates of widowhood • Growth of Assisted Living Facility (ALF) and Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC) industries • Well developed network of home care providers

  4. Trends in Aging & Long-Term Care • Nursing home reimbursement rates growing five percent over inflation • Shortages of health care professionals and paraprofessionals

  5. Growth in Aging

  6. Growth in Aging

  7. Share of Elder PopulationFlorida

  8. Dependency Ratios

  9. Disability Rates • Since 1984 disability rates have been declining at about one percent per year. • This trend is expected to continue. Between 2000 and 2050 the rate of severe disability among the elderly is projected to be cut by half. • Older Floridians are 45 percent less likely to require long-term nursing home care than elders from other states.

  10. Disability Rates (cont.) Source: AARP Public Policy Institute based on 1994 National Long Term Care Survey and U.S. Census Bureau population projection middle series.

  11. Shift to Assisted Living Facility (ALF) Care

  12. Informal Care Trends • Stable marriage rates and declining disability imply that growth in the elderly population can actually lower demand for nursing home care because: • As the elderly male population grows more rapidly than the population of elder females, the availability of spousal care rises. • The supply of healthy caregivers rises.

  13. Informal Long-Term Care

  14. Nursing Home Use Growth Florida

  15. Trends in Demand Nursing Home Care

  16. Summary Demand Factors

  17. Florida’s Long-Term Care Costs Are Lower Than Other States

  18. Negative Trend:Nursing Home Per Diem Growth Growth Rate 6.7 Percent Yearly

  19. Costs: Nursing Home Budgets Growth

  20. Trends in Nursing Home Costs

  21. Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost of Long-Term Care • Support and encourage family and personal responsibility • Education • Support and foster development of affordable long-term care options • Aging Resource Centers as local contact for education, information and referral

  22. Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost of Long-Term Care (cont.) • Support health promotion and wellness • Social • Intellectual • Physical

  23. Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost of Long-Term Care (Cont.) • Support a public long term care system that • Favors community based care • Promotes deinstitutionalization • Removes any institutional bias • Is customer centric • Has flexibility • Funding follows the consumer across care settings • Service dollars can be used to supplement rather than substitute for personal/family resources • Services can be used on a preventive basis

  24. Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost of Long-Term Care (Cont.) • Support a public long-term care system that • Prioritizes and targets services based on risk • Maximizes return on investment • Integration/maximization of federal funding streams • Integration of care • Risk transfers/sharing • Administrative efficiencies

  25. Comments & Suggestions Horacio Soberon-Ferrer, Ph.D. Florida Department of Elder Affairs 850-414-2089 ferrerh@elderaffairs.org

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