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The New MEAP & MME CUT SCORES

Questions may be submitted via the “chat” feature of Mistreamnet . We will respond to as many of those questions as we can at the conclusion of the presentation. The New MEAP & MME CUT SCORES.

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The New MEAP & MME CUT SCORES

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  1. Questions may be submitted via the “chat” feature of Mistreamnet. We will respond to as many of those questions as we can at the conclusion of the presentation. The New MEAP & MME CUT SCORES The PowerPoint is available for download in the Materials & Resources box in the lower right corner of the Mistreamnet event screen. On Track to Career & College Ready Wayne RESA Bruce R. Fay, PhD | Assessment/Evaluation Consultant

  2. What We Know • New cut scores approved by SBE in Sept. 2011 • Major proficiency category cut scores only for MEAP (not MEAP-Access) and MME only • MI-Access cut scores will not be changed • New cut scores in effect for 2011-12 SY tests • Methodology described in the SBE item • Did NOT use standard setting panels • “Purely” statistical, but they: • Used several different methods, and • Chose the results that made the most sense

  3. What We Know – 2 • They basically replicated and validated the 2005 ACT College Readiness Benchmark Study using only: • Michigan students (MME scores) • Michigan post-secondary public institutions (22+15=37) • Defined “success” as a 0.50 probability of earning a B or better in the corresponding course(s), which turns out to be a 0.75 probability of a C or better • “Proficient” cut corresponds to this definition • “Advanced” cut is p = 2/3rds, • “Partially Proficient” cut is p = 1/3rd

  4. What We Know – 3 • Linked MME results (11th grade) to “success” in first semester freshman credit-bearing (non-remedial) college courses for one (1) cohort of students • Linked MME to grade 3 – 9 MEAP results, such that • Proficiency in grade X tends to predict proficiency at the next tested grade level, and • Lack of proficiency in grade X tends to predict lack of proficiency in the next tested grade level

  5. What We Know – 4 • Attempted to maximize classification consistency (reliability of classifications) • As with the earlier ACT study, there will still be error in these classifications/predictions • Historical re-calculations (retrospective look at data) available to • Schools Oct. 31 (BAA secure site, embargoed) • Public Nov. 3 (MI SCHOOL DATA website)

  6. What We Don’t Know (yet) • Minor cut scores within proficiency categories needed to calculate performance level change • How/when these will be determined (it will be done) • How MDE will present this to the press/public when the results come out for the Fall 2011 MEAP tests • New MEAP-Access cut scores (these may/will change as part of standard-setting this winter) • …?

  7. What Does It Mean To Be Career & College Ready? A Short Quiz…

  8. Which student is “College-Ready” According to ACT? To read the chart: Amy’s ACT English score was 20; her math score was 22; her reading score was 21; her science score was 24; and her ACT Composite was 22. * Percent of students with same composite score who met all 4 ACT College-Ready Benchmarks.

  9. What you have to know to figure it out… Michigan is one of a handful of states where 100% of students take the ACT. Yes, Amy, the student with the lowest ACT Composite, is the only student who ACT considers “College-Ready.” Eve, with her ACT Composite score of 30, is not considered “College-Ready.” * About 37% of students with an ACT Composite score of 24 are “College-Ready.”

  10. Which College Courses Were Used To Establish Michigan’s New Cut Scores? • Mathematics – College Algebra • Reading – Courses identified by 4-year universities; Reading-heavy courses such as entry-level literature, history, philosophy, or psychology for 2-year universities • Science – Courses identified by 4-year universities; Entry level biology, chemistry, physics, or geology for 2-year universities • Social Studies – Courses identified by 4-year universities; Entry level history, geography, or economics for 2-year universities

  11. Which Students Were Used? • For the HS–College link, only students who: • Had valid MME scores (spring 2009) • Attended one of 37 MI post-secondary public schools • Enrolled in one or more of the identified courses as first semester freshman (2010-11 SY) • Student taking more advanced mathematics courses, such as calculus for example, were NOT included in the study calculations. • If they had been, the cut scores would have been even higher

  12. Another View of “College Ready” (ACT CCR) 221,606 ways that ACT subject area subscores can be combined to produce ACT composite scores 153,776 NOT ACT CCR 67,830 are ACT CCR An ACT composite score of 28 is about equally likely to be considered CCR or not National and Michigan average composite score for Class of 2010 below left (ACT does not use composite scores in determining if a student is “college ready”) *Class of 2010 is primarily spring 2009 + retakes

  13. Actual Data 3559 students - 1434 ARE CCR - 2125 NOT CCR Less than 50% CCR at composite score of 24 More than 50% CCR at composite score of 25

  14. The New Cut Scores

  15. Mathematics Cut Scores * Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100

  16. Reading Cut Scores * Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100

  17. Science Cut Scores * Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100

  18. Social Studies Cut Scores * Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100

  19. What About Writing? • Since the writing tests are relatively new, the cut scores were already set at a career and college ready level, and did not need to be reset. • Proficient remains at Grade Level * 100

  20. Approximate % correct needed to be proficient on MME / MEAP – Old vs. New

  21. What Does This Mean? • On MME, the following probabilities of earning a B or better in the associated college class(es): • “Advanced” ~= at least 2/3 • “Proficient” ~= 1/2 to 2/3 • “Partially Proficient” ~< 1/3 • On MEAP, the degree to which a student is likely “on track” to proficiency in the next tested grade in that subject. • Remember…the tests themselves have not changed; the distribution of scale scores for the 2011-12 test cycle will be similar to the 2010-11 test cycle.

  22. New Cut Scores Applied To Old (2010-2011) Test Results

  23. State of Michigan Retrospective Proficiency Rates

  24. Implications? • Proficiency rates going forward will drop • Schools / students should still be able to see relative changes in performance (due to historical recalculation) • AYP may not be an issue if MDE is successful in obtaining the ESEA Flexibility (NCLB waivers) from USED (a whole separate issue) • Accreditation will not be effected (much) if/when MSA is implemented due to the use of ranking calculations that mostly do not depend on proficiency (cut scores)

  25. Final Thoughts – 1 • The tests have not changed • The distribution of scale scores for 2011-12 will be similar to the distribution for 2010-11 • Cut Scores are not designed in to the tests; they are: • Added later by a separate standard-setting process • After the test has been administered • Represent a judgment to as to what level of performance is considered “good enough” to meet some definition • There is no a priori “correct” cut score

  26. Final Thoughts – 2 • Schools will continue to use state test results, in conjunction with other information, to monitor and evaluate the academic achievement of their students and examine the effectiveness of curriculum and instruction. • Parents will continue to see reports that show the number of items their student answered correctly and the associated scale score.

  27. Final Thoughts – 3 • If we were misleading students and parents about college readiness before, the new cut scores do not necessarily fix that – and we may be more likely to suggest to a student that they are not ready when they have a real chance at success • “College readiness”, for each student, depends on the unique interaction of their choices of college and program of study with their personal attributes, such as maturity, work habits, financial support, and motivation to succeed • (see David T. Conley, PhD, Professor, Univ of Oregon, for research in this area)

  28. Final Thoughts – 4 • For some students, Partially Proficient – High may be adequate • For others, Advanced – Mid, or even Advanced – High may be a more appropriate goal • In spite of MDE’s statistical methodology, we don’t know how predictive these new cut scores will be of college success going forward – only time & data will tell • Being “career & college ready” is a complex issue that can not be captured in a few test scores

  29. Questions? Bruce R. Fay, PhD Assessment / Evaluation Consultant FayB@resa.net 734.334.1384

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