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Rodrigo J. Bombardi and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of Sao Paulo

Variability of the South America Monsoon System: The present Climate and projections for a global change scenario. Rodrigo J. Bombardi and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of Sao Paulo GEM-Group for Studies in Multi-Scales. OBJECTIVES.

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Rodrigo J. Bombardi and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of Sao Paulo

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  1. Variability of the South America Monsoon System: The present Climate and projections for a global change scenario Rodrigo J. Bombardi and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of Sao Paulo GEM-Group for Studies in Multi-Scales

  2. OBJECTIVES Investigate the Onset, Duration and total precipitation during the SA Monsoon in coupled IPCC models Examine the performance of IPCC models in simulating SAMS in the 20th century climate and projections for future scenarios. Provide guidance on the use of IPCC models to force regional climate models “Garbage in – Garbage out” (Jeremy Pal)

  3. Models

  4. Observations • Global Precipitation Climatology Project (merge satellite and Stations) Time- resolution: pentads Spatial Resolution: 2.5 x 2.5 (lat,lon)

  5. Onset- Demise Methodology Rn= Pentad Precipitation Liebmann and Marengo 2001 – J. Climate

  6. Simulation of the 20th Century Climate

  7. Mean Annual Cycle of precipitation Western Amazon (70;5.5S) NW S. America(72;2.5S) S Amazon (55.0W;10S) MIROC GFDL

  8. Mean Annual Cycle of precipitation Amazon Delta (50;0.0S) Cerrado (50;17.5S) Central Amazon(60;5.5 S) SACZ(37.5;30.0 S) GFDL No variability

  9. Mean DJF Precipitation (solid lines) and Standard Deviation S (shaded) Light gray → 3 mm ≤ S ≤ 5mm Dark gray → S > 5 mm GPCP - Observed CSIRO-3 -Australia GFDL2.0 - USA GFDL2.1 - USA MIROC-hires - Japan MIROC-medres - Japan

  10. Mean DJF Precipitation (solid lines) and Standard Deviation S (shaded) Light gray → 3 mm ≤ S ≤ 5mm Dark gray → S > 5 mm CNRM - France GPCP - Observed CGCMT63 - Canada ECHAM5 - Germany MRI - Japan FGOALS - China

  11. Median of Onset of the Rainy Season

  12. (Observation) (France) Pentad 60 (Australia) (China) (Japan) (Japan)

  13. (Canada) (Observation) Pentad 60 (USA) (Germany) (Japan) (USA)

  14. Onset Variability Definedby the Interquartile Range (IQR)

  15. (Observation) (France) 3-4 Pentads (Australia) (China) (Japan) (Japan)

  16. Median of Duration of the Rainy Season

  17. (Observation) (France) 36 Pentads (Japan) (China) (Japan) (Canada)

  18. (Observation) (Australia) 36 Pentads (USA) (USA) (Japan) (Germany)

  19. Duration Variability Definedby the Interquartile Range (IQR) 5 best simulations (based on the median)

  20. (France) (Observation) 4 Pentads (Japan) (Australia) (Japan) (Canada)

  21. Median of Total Precipitation During the Rainy Season

  22. (China) (Japan) (Japan) (Japan) (France)

  23. (Canada) (Germany) (Australia) (USA) (USA)

  24. Total Precipitation Variability Defined by the Interquartile Range (IQR)

  25. (Observation) (China) (Japan) (Japan) (France) (Japan)

  26. Inter-model Variability described by the Standard Deviation of the Ensemble

  27. Simulation of the 21th Century Climate (scenario A1B)Difference between Median Monsoon Precipitation21th - 20th

  28. (Japan) (Japan) (China) (France)

  29. (USA) (USA) (Australia) Echam-5 not included

  30. CONCLUSIONS Most IPCC models simulate SAMS observed climatological features (ie, median and interquartile range) over central-eastern South America Poor representation of the annual cycle of Precipitation is observed over N and W Amazon (stronger ITCZ) Best Performance of SAMS precipitation Patterns: CNRM (France), FGOALS (China), MIROC3.2-hires e MIROC3.2-mdres (Japan) Worst Performance: ECHAM5 (Germany), GFDL2.0, 2.1 (USA) Low Spreadamong model’s simulations (Onset, End, Duration) is oberved over central Brazil and High spread is observed over Amazon Low spread among model’s simulations of total Precipitation is observed over S and SE Brazil and adjascent Atlantic Ocean MIROC-H and M1, FGOALS, GFDL, indicate statistically significant decrease of total precipitation over eastern Brazil (Cerrado region) for the A1B scenario (~ -100 to -200mm). CNRM, on the other hand, show increase in precipitation (~ 200-300mm) approximately for the same area No statistically significant differences are observed in any model regarding differences in Onset, Demise and duration of SAMS

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