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The Dynamics of Homelessness

The Dynamics of Homelessness. Dennis P. Culhane University of Pennsylvania. Proportion of NYC Population That Experienced a Shelter Stay in 1995, by Age. Cluster Distributions: Persons and Shelter Days Consumed (Single Adults in Philadelphia). Transitionals: 1.19 stays 20.4 days Episodics:

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The Dynamics of Homelessness

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  1. The Dynamics of Homelessness Dennis P. Culhane University of Pennsylvania

  2. Proportion of NYC Population That Experienced a Shelter Stay in 1995, by Age

  3. Cluster Distributions: Persons and Shelter Days Consumed(Single Adults in Philadelphia) • Transitionals: • 1.19 stays • 20.4 days • Episodics: • 3.84 stays • 72.8 days • Chronics: • 1.53 stays • 252.4 days

  4. Disability Condition & Veteran Status By Cluster (Single Adults in Philadelphia)

  5. Implications • Transitionally Homeless: Prevention and Relocation Assistance • Episodically Homeless: Low Demand Residences (Safe Havens), Harm Reduction, Transitional Housing, Residential Treatment • Chronically Homeless: Permanent Supportive Housing

  6. TThe New York-New York Evaluation • CCulhane, Metraux and Hadley, 2002 • Funded capital, operating and service costs for 3,600 supportive housing units in NY City • Placement recipients must be SMI and have record of homelessness • Data available on 4,679 NY/NY placement records between • 1989-97

  7. Data Sources NY/NY Housing Placements: 1989-97 Singles Shelter Users and Stays: 1987-99 State Hospital Users & Stays: 1990-96 Municipal Hospital Users & Stays: 1989-96 Medicaid-Reimbursed (non-HHC) Inpatient Hospital Stays: 1993-97 Medicaid-Reimbursed Outpatient Visits: 1993-97 Veterans Hospital Stays: 1992-99 State Criminal Justice Prison Use & Convictions: 1987-97 City Jail Use: 1987-99

  8. The Cost of Homelessness

  9. NY/NY Savings: Per Housing Unit Per Year

  10. NY/NY Housing - Costs and Savings

  11. Key Findings • 95% of supportive housing costs offset by service reductions • Study underestimated savings associated with program-funded services (McKinney) and crime • Study did not quantify benefits to consumers • NY/NY was a sound public investment

  12. What is Needed? • Depending on estimates, there are between 1.6 million (5% of poor) and 2.5 million (app. 1% of population) people who become homeless annually • Single adults account for between 1 million and 1.65 million • If 10-15% are chronically homeless, need anywhere from 150,000 to 250,000 units of housing to “End Chronic Homelessness” today

  13. What is Needed? • Operating Subsidies (Section 8, other rental assistance) • Services (HHS? States? VA? The “Savers”) Where necessary: • Capital (bond financing, tax credits, lenders) Congress authorized $100m and $200m increases in last two years for the “chronic homeless initiative” (25% increase) Twenty four cities have reported declines in chronic homelessness in last two years.

  14. A Typology of Family Homelessness: Preliminary Findings Dennis Culhane University of Pennsylvania Stephen Metraux University of the Sciences in Philadelphia Jung Min Park University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

  15. Background • Singles typology experience • But families are different: - much lower MH/SA rates - not different from poor housed families - relatively homogeneous • Potential confounders – policy/program factors - use of shelter system as queue for subsidies - transitional shelter as a reform movement

  16. Methodology • Four jurisdictions – Philadelphia, NYC, Columbus OH, and Massachusetts • HMIS data – new admissions followed for two or three year periods • 30 day exit criterion applied • Cluster analysis, specifying three cluster solution • Database merges to identify service histories

  17. Health and Social Service Databases Merged • In one city: Medicaid, Mental Health, Substance Abuse, Child Welfare • In one state: Medicaid, Mental Health, Substance Abuse, Child Welfare • In one city: Child Welfare

  18. Results: Cluster Solution(Massachusetts, family shelter users) • Transitionals: • 1.0 stays • 105 days • Episodics: • 2.0 stays • 195 days • Long-Stayers: • 1.0 stays • 444 days

  19. Intensive Service Histories of Families

  20. Income Sources

  21. The Average Cost of Shelter Stays by Type(Massachusetts) • Transitional $11,550 • Episodic $21,450 • Long-term $48,440 Does not include McKinney-Vento funding or non-DTA public service contracts.

  22. Preliminary Conclusions • Cluster patterns are robust across sites • Most families (75%) leave quickly and don’t return • A small number (5-8%) return repeatedly • 20-25% of families have long stays, using 55-70% of resources • BUT – unlike singles – long stays do not indicate personal barriers to housing stability

  23. Preliminary Conclusions (continued) • Policies and programs driving long stays • Characteristics of “graduates” may reflect selection effects of policies and programs • Most needy families get fewest system resources, and least needy families get most system resources • Need for reform: A new conceptual framework required

  24. Model Cost by Volume Service System for Addressing Housing Emergencies Shelter Admission Diversion, Relocation and Transitional Rental Assistance Volume Prevention Supportive Housing Cost per Case Community- Based programs Mainstream systems

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