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Today’s Topics

International Symposium on Nowcasting, Very Short Range Forecasting, Value Added Services and User-Oriented Aerodrome Forecasts. Kevin Johnston National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Aviation Services Branch 9-10 September 2005, Toulouse, France. Today’s Topics.

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Today’s Topics

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  1. International Symposium on Nowcasting, Very Short Range Forecasting, Value Added Services and User-Oriented Aerodrome Forecasts Kevin JohnstonNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service Aviation Services Branch 9-10 September 2005, Toulouse, France

  2. Today’s Topics • NWS Aviation Program Initiatives • Observations • New Forecast Techniques • New Products • Training • User Oriented Forecasts

  3. Aviation Weather:A Key Element of the NWS Mission • NWS is a Major Partner in Helping the FAA • NWS is Committed to Improving the Information We Provide • The Status Quo is Not Acceptable • Goal by FY12: • Reduce Commercial Delays Due to Weather by 10%; • Reduce General Aviation Deaths Due to Weather by 25%

  4. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Observations • Water Vapor Sensor • TAMDAR

  5. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Products

  6. NWS Aviation ProgramNew and Improved Products

  7. NWS Aviation ProgramWFO Applications and Products-AVNFPS

  8. NWS Aviation ProgramTraining • Distant Learning for Forecasters • Low Ceiling and Visibility • Air Traffic Operations • Convection • Improved TAF • Enhanced Pilot Training

  9. NWS Aviation ProgramWe’re Seeing Dividends Today • Improved Accuracy of Terminal Aviation Forecasts • 11 Percent Improvement over FY 05 Goal for False Alarm Rate of IFR Conditions • POD Stable

  10. NWS Aviation Program • NWS Recognizes Shortfalls • Team charged over next 3 months • Goal is to Define the Weather Information, Product, and Service Delivery Environment to Meet FAA’s Weather Needs

  11. NWS Aviation Program • Our Process • Obtain FAA-wide Requirements • Design Products and Services To Meet Requirements • Design System to Provide Products and services • Design Prototype • Design Transition Strategy • System Design Within 15 Months

  12. User Oriented ForecastsEditing Icing Potential Grid

  13. User Oriented Forecasts Close-up of TRACON Area • DFW airport • Four cornerposts

  14. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Inputs • Current Icing Potential (CIP) • Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) • Forecast Icing Severity (FIS) • Turbulence (GTG) • Thunderstorm (TST) • Collaborative Convective Forecast Product • AutoNowcaster • TAF and 6 Hr CCFP from RUC

  15. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Algorithm (Graphic) Red, Yellow, Green CIP Red, Yellow, Green FIP/FIS Display GTG Red, Yellow, Green TST Red, Yellow, Green

  16. User Oriented Forecasts

  17. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Algorithm (Text) • Inputs • Initial color assessment • CIP/FIP/FIS combination • Icing/turbulence/thunderstorm combination

  18. User Oriented Forecasts TRACON Status Color Assessment • Green (<30) • Yellow (30-60) • Red (>60) • Thresholds readily configured.

  19. User Oriented Forecasts Combinations • CIP/FIP/FIS Combination • Early hours, apply CIP. • Later hours, apply FIP/FIS. • Icing/turbulence/thunderstorm Combination • Use worst case.

  20. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  21. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  22. User Oriented Forecasts Decision Aid Example

  23. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” • IMPROVING FORECASTS THROUGH METWATCH AND INTEGRATION OF FORECAST TECHIQUES • PROVIDES INTERFACE TO BUILD USER PRODUCTS

  24. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” What does AVNFPS 3.0 have? • Conditional climatology • Allows individual forecast verification • Use of Tactical Decision Aids “TDAs” • Makes use of guidance to produce first guess TAFs. • Comprehensive QC for syntax errors and uses conditional climo to check for “not likely” CIG/VIS/Wnd combinations in the TAF.

  25. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software”

  26. AVNFPS “Aviation Forecast Prep Software” Input from the developmental agencies… • Working with NCEP, in the process of verifying the SREF “Short Range Ensemble Forecast” for IFR and below guidance. • MDL has a team working at the 3/4d data • Working with FSL and the RUC team on what they can do for us…using CIG/VIS grids • Looking at software that produces a “fuzzy logic TAF

  27. User Oriented Forecasts • Issues • Today’s products stand-alone--Not readily integrated into ATM Decision Support Systems • Weather people doing—manpower intensive • ATM DSS need to evolve to automate and determine impacts

  28. Thank You-Questions?

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